Paul Williams

Paul Williams' US PGA Championship Longshots 2021

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With many additional each-way places available, the scope for grabbing a piece of the each-way action with a 3-figure chance this week is as good as ever and there’s plenty of value to be found if you dig deep enough into the market at Kiawah Island.

Last year’s US PGA Championship didn’t produce too many shocks with only Paul Casey (100/1), Matthew Wolff (125/1) and Scottie Scheffler (100/1) finishing in the top 9 at triple digits and producing a full each-way payout if you picked the right bookie. That’s still 3 very gettable players though and once again I think there are opportunities to secure a profit from a small team of longshots this week.

For full background on the course and PGA Championship trends read Steve Bamford’s in-depth preview here.

As ever, the each-way terms available from some bookmakers this week make for an interesting dilemma – do you stick rigidly to fairly standard each-way terms and grab a top price on an outsider, or do you accept a reduced price in exchange for more favourable each-way terms?

The latest extended each-way terms are as follows:

US PGA Championship 2021 Additional Each-Way Places

BookmakerEach Way TermsFurther Details
Coral10 Places, 1/5 OddsLatest Odds
Boylesports10 Places. 1/5 OddsLatest Odds
Paddy Power10 Places, 1/5 OddsLatest Odds
Betfair10 Places, 1/5 OddsLatest Odds
William Hill9 Places. 1/5 OddsLatest Odds
bet3658 Places. 1/5 OddsLatest Odds
Ladbrokes8 Places. 1/5 OddsLatest Odds
Betfred8 Places. 1/5 OddsLatest Odds
888Sport8 Places. 1/5 OddsLatest Odds
Unibet7 Places. 1/5 OddsLatest Odds
BetVictor6 Places, 1/5 OddsLatest Odds

 

  • Each-way terms updated 17.5.21 but subject to change and apply to pre-event bets only. Ante-post terms and in-shop terms may vary, please check every aspect of your bet very carefully before placing your bet. T&Cs Apply.

Personally I’ve opted to take a balanced approach with 3 selections using different price/combinations but, as ever, do check the odds of the key bookmakers above before placing your bet to suit yourself.

Here’s my pick of the bunch at longer prices:

Billy Horschel 1pt EW 125/1 (9EW, 1/5) with William Hill

One of the many ways to first analyse a full field event is to rank all of the players by their Official World Golf Ranking and see if there are any anomalies compared to their odds and, although never an exact science, that simple exercise instantly highlights Billy Horschel.

At 18th in the rankings, the 34 year-old isn’t a million miles off of his career high, which he achieved shortly after winning the BMW Championship in the 2014 PlayOffs before triumphing the following week at East Lake, and this highlights 2 points with Billy: he has the ability to beat a world-class field and he can undoubtedly maintain his form when he finds it.

Flanked either side of Horschel in the OWGR we find Matt Fitzpatrick and Abraham Ancer, both priced around half that of Billy and both PGA Tour maidens. Our man, on the other hand, has 6 PGA Tour titles to his name – one of which was a WGC, another as already mentioned the Tour Championship – and for me something simply doesn’t add up.

A best of 23rd in the US PGA Championship over the years may the reason he’s not fancied, however 4th at the US Open in 2013 suggests he can compete at a Major and, to be fair to the Florida man, he has made the weekend in each of his last 7 attempts at this title.

This season has seen Billy finish 2nd at the WGC Workday Championship as well as winning the WGC Match Play Championship on a Pete Dye track. Add to that 2 career victories at TPC Louisiana – another Dye course – one of which was on his own in 2013 and the other alongside Scott Piercy in 2018, and we have another strong reason to suspect that he could go well here this week.

25th on his last solo start at Harbour Town saw Horschel in 4th place heading into the weekend so his form’s hardly collapsed, and if he can marry up a half-decent putting week to accompany his typically strong Total Driving game then I can see him rewarding each-way punters here this week. RESULT: T23

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Stewart Cink 1pt EW 160/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Another player with recent winning form on a Pete Dye track is Stewart Cink and he’s another that I can see threatening the first page of the leaderboard this week.

Having gone without a win for over a decade following his 2009 Open Championship triumph at Turnberry, many a punter would have been forgiven for writing off the Georgia native for anything other than a speculative first round leader punt every now and then, however he clearly had different ideas.

A 2-stroke victory over Harry Higgs at last autumn’s Safeway Open suggested that Stewart wasn’t quite ready to freewheel towards the Senior Tour, and at the age of 47 he captured the 7th regular PGA Tour event of his career last month at Harbour Town and completed a personal hat-trick of titles on one of Dye’s regular Tour stop-offs.

Back into the world’s top 50, Stewart still has enough game to compete at the top level of golf and at 23rd in the Driving Distance charts for the season and 1st for GIR from 200+ yards, he has enough raw power still to contend on a stretching track like Kiawah Island.

That aforementioned Open Championship win is supplemented by career-best finishes of 3rd in each of the other 3 Majors to suggest that his game can suit all variety of tests, plus he finished 4th the last time he played a US PGA Championship back in 2018 at Bellerive. 12th at Augusta prior to his most recent win also adds encouragement for each-way backers at the price on offer and he’s another that I can see outperforming his odds here. RESULT: T30

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Jazz Janewattananond 0.5pt EW 500/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Unibet

Finally a more speculative punt on Jazz Janewattananond completes my trio of outsiders.

The young Thai announced himself to the wider audience in this event back in 2019 when a 3rd round 67 put him in a tie for 2nd place at Bethpage Black behind runaway leader Brooks Koepka. He managed to hold things together until the 12th hole on Sunday before dropping 7 shots coming home to finish in a tie for 14th, however his performance up to that point was noteworthy at the very least.

3 wins on the Korean and Asian Tours since that back-9 meltdown have followed for the 25 year-old and he’s clearly still learning, however 7 wins in 118 global starts since the start of 2017 would suggest that he’s got the ability to convert far more frequently than many other professionals and we should forgive him the odd Sunday slip.

7th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational heading into Sunday at the start of March was an interesting flash of form before yet another Sunday debacle, however 2nd and 11th on his last 2 starts on the European Tour have featured closing rounds of 64 and 66 to offer some hope that he’s working to overcome his final day demons.

That most recent effort last week at The Belfry was his first outing for 6 weeks and his Strokes Gained metrics were solid across the board with only 2 players beating his final round effort on Saturday. A leap of faith is required of course for him to contend and hold onto a position here at Kiawah Island on Sunday, however at the huge price on offer I’m happy to chance my arm. RESULT: MC

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✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and European Tour
✅ Strong odds on First Round Leader market

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 15:05BST 17.5.21 but naturally subject to fluctuation.

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