Event Format. A full field of women from the Australian Ladies Professional Golf (ALPG) and Ladies Professional Golf Association (LPGA) joins a full field comprised of members from the ISPS Handa PGA Tour of Australasia (PGATA) and European Tour for the Vic Open in what will effectively be two events running concurrently on the same course(s) at the same time for the same prize money.
With nearly 300 players in total, two courses are being used for the first two days – the Beach Course and the Creek Course at 13th Beach Golf Links at Barwon Heads, Victoria – before the top 60 and ties from both the men’s and women’s events head to the Beach Course for Saturday. On Sunday the fields are both cut to the top 35 and ties for the final round, which again will be hosted on the Beach Course. For more details on the format click here.
Groups will alternate men and women with the men playing off the back tees (6,778 yards and 6.940 yards for the Beach and Creek courses respectively) whereas the women will play off the forward tees at 6,276 yards and 6,307 yards. So other than the men’s tees being set further back, all players will be playing the same holes at the same time and in the same conditions.
Course Overview. Both tracks are short par 72s by modern standard and both are Tony Cashmore designs, with Nick Faldo having a hand in the development of the Creek Course.
The Beach Course is built on true links land and whilst it’s a modern take on links golf, it shares the links features you’d expect with undulating fairways, pot bunkers and fescue-lined fairways. The Creek Course is a little wider and less penal from the rough and more reminiscent of a sand belt track with the addition of pine trees and the creek from which its name is derived. Both have large bent/poa greens and given the dimensions of each layout, wind is the main protection here at 13th Beach.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event since 13th Beach started hosting the Vic Open in 2013: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Current/Event Form.
Although this event has been running in some capacity since 1957, the combined men and women’s format has only been around since 2012 and the courses here have only hosted since 2013, so in terms of this week’s tournament stats listed above we’ve detailed from 2013 only.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Victoria is here. Temperatures will struggle to hit much above 75 Fahrenheit throughout the week and wind speeds will average 15-20mph – and maybe a little more over the weekend – which on this layout will demand a certain type of game.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors.
Analysing the final stats of the leading 4 finishers at last year’s Vic Open gives us a little insight into the requirements for this week’s test:
- 1st: David Law (-18). 288 yards (22nd), 62.5% fairways (22nd), 76.4% greens in regulation (15th), 58.8% scrambling (8th), 1.60 putts per GIR (3rd).
- 2nd: Brad Kennedy (-17). 291 yards (18th), 75% fairways (2nd), 75% greens in regulation (18th), 66.7% scrambling (1st), 1.65 putts per GIR (8th).
- 2nd: Wade Ormsby (-17). 290 yards (20th), 67.9% fairways (11th), 80.6% greens in regulation (5th), 64.3% scrambling (4th), 1.64 putts per GIR (6th).
- 4th: Justin Harding (-16). 301 yards (8th), 58.9% fairways (32nd), 84.7% greens in regulation (2nd), 45.5% scrambling (15th), 1.74 putts per GIR (21st).
Rank relative to the field is versus those who made the 2nd cut of 36 players and should be considered accordingly.
Fairways hit and Greens In Regulation numbers were relatively high for all players last year, which meant that those players who performed best on and around the greens were those who came to the fore over the 4 days.
Only 1 player broke into double figures under-par for the par-5s last year (Callum Shinkwin) and eventual winner David Law was just -3 for the long holes on the week; scoring on the par-3s and par-4s was therefore critical to how a player performed overall.
Incoming Form: Of the 7 winners here at 13th beach, each had finished inside the top-40 in one of their last 3 starts globally, however that’s not saying a great deal and last year’s 300/1 winner David Law was another who was difficult to find:
- David Law: 11/MC/14/6/MC/15/12/25/71/26/MC/MC
- Simon Hawkes: MC/MC/62/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC/WD/MC/25
- Dimi Papadadatos: MC/MC/52/56/MC/MC/MC/75/MC/20/MC/27
- Michael Long: MC/51/20/10/MC/7/34/MC/12/MC/MC/40
- Richard Green: MC/12/MC/18/DQ/9/39/35/15/26/38/25
- Matthew Griffin: 15/1/MC/35/3/MC/44/22/5/24/MC/26
- Matthew Giles: MC/MC/MC/72/MC/MC/MC/59/MC/34/5/13
Course Form. Course form is patchy with only 7 years’ worth of events in the books, however 4 of the 7 winners had previously recorded a top-15 finish around these parts and 2013 winner Matthew Giles has recorded 2 further top-20 finishes here since his win:
- David Law: Debut
- Simon Hawkes: MC
- Dimi Papadadatos: MC/15/6/MC
- Michael Long: 14/MC/59
- Richard Green: 14/10
- Matthew Griffin: 14
- Matthew Giles: debut
It has to be said that the quality of the field has dipped further from last year’s renewal where, to be fair, the bar wasn’t particularly high in the first place. Haotong Li, Lucas Herbert and Brad Kennedy share favouritism at 14/1 at the time of writing, with Jason Scrivener, MinWoo Lee and Ryan Fox all rating 20/1 chances or shorter, however surprises can and do happen in this type of event.
David Law was 300/1 and anything up to 1,000/1 on the exchanges before the event last year, coming off the back of a pair of missed cuts and never having recorded a European Tour top-20 finish before his win here. Plucking him out of the list would have been an inspired selection, however that result and the stats from his closest challengers do give us some clues as to who might perform well this week on this coastal test.
