Steve Bamford

Steve Bamford's Wyndham Championship Tips

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Congratulations if you were on-board Rocket Mortgage Classic winner Tony Finau at a Monday best price of 14/1 with William Hill. On the Golf Betting System podcast we have christened the World Number 13 from Utah, Tony “Terminator” Finau and his performance across 72 holes in Detroit was faultless. In winning Tony became the first player to win in back-to-back weeks during the PGA Tour Regular season since Brendon Todd in November 2019.

I landed full each-way T2 finishes on Patrick Cantlay (11/1) and Cameron Young (20/1). Talking of the podcast Barry O’Hanrahan landed Taylor Pendrith full each-way at 80/1 and Paul Williams grabbed runner-up finisher Eddie Pepperell full each-way at 66/1 at the Hero Open. By my reckoning that’s a quadruple of 2nd placed finishers in a single podcast episode!

This week we travel to the Wyndham Championship, played at Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro in North Carolina. It’s a milestone for the Tour as it signifies the final tournament of the regular season. That means that the Wyndham is critical for a couple of key reasons: firstly, only the top 125 players proceed to the money spinning FedEx Cup Playoffs which start next week in Tennessee. No players want to miss out on what could be a very lucrative run in the Playoffs, with the top 30 ultimately travelling to Atlanta, Georgia for the Tour Championship. And the top 125 more pertinently is also the bubble for full PGA Tour playing privileges for season 2022/23 which starts in September.

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Before we go into the detail surrounding the Wyndham Championship, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,100 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

Course Guide: Sedgefield is an original Donald Ross design which has typical Carolina course overtures. A short par-70 by modern standards, the course still favours accuracy from the tee over outright power. Ultimately streaky scorers have got the job done here, with scoring being dictated solely by the firmness of the greens when wind isn’t a factor. Champion Bermudagrass greens were laid for the 2012 renewal and they undoubtedly run faster than the tired Bentgrass putting surfaces they replaced, particularly if conditions remain dry. But as the greens have settled, scoring continues to improve with -22/258, -21/259, -22/258, -21/259 and -22/258 being 5 of the last 6 winning totals.

Sedgefield Country Club, Greensboro, North Carolina: Designer: Donald Ross 1926, with Kris Spence renovation 2007; Course Type: Carolina, Resort; Par: 70; Length: 7,131 yards; Number of Holes with Water In-play: 6; Fairways: Bermudagrass; Rough: Bermudagrass 2.5″; Greens: 6,000 sq.ft average featuring Champion Bermudagrass; Stimpmeter: 12ft; Course Scoring Average 2012: 69.37 (-0.63), Difficulty Rank 35 of 49 courses. 2013: 69.97 (-0.03), Difficulty Rank 23 of 43 courses. 2014: 69.21 (-0.79), Rank 38 of 48 courses. 2015: 68.86 (-1.14), Rank 40 of 52 courses. 2016: 68.97 (-1.03), Rank 37 of 50 courses. 2017: 68.81 (-1.19), Rank 37 of 50 courses. 2018: 68.69 (-1.31), Rank 40 of 51 courses. 2019: 68.18 (-1.82), Rank 41 of 49 courses. 2020: 68.78 (-1.22), Rank 29 of 41 courses. 2021: 68.88 (-1.12), Rank 34 of 51 courses.

Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Sedgefield Country Club and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:

  • Sedgefield: 250 yards from tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:26 325:23; 350:22.
  • Detroit Golf Club: 250 yards from tee: 34 yards wide; 275:34; 300:35 325:34; 350:33.
  • TPC Twin Cities: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:38; 300:31; 325:30; 350:36.
  • TPC Deere Run: 250 yards from tee: 41 yards wide; 275:40; 300:36 325:33; 350:30.
  • TPC River Highlands: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:36; 300:29; 325:29; 350:28.
  • Muirfield Village: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:28; 325:24; 350:27.
  • Colonial: 250 yards from tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:27; 325:26; 350:23.
  • Champions Course – Southern Hills: Average 40 yards wide.
  • TPC Potomac: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:30; 300:27; 325:23; 350:27.
  • Harbour Town: 250 yards from tee: 29 yards wide; 275:26; 300:22; 325:26; 350:22.
  • Oaks Course: 250 yards from tee: 33 yards wide; 275:34; 300:29; 325:27; 350:26.
  • Copperhead: 250 yards from the tee: 24 yards wide; 275:20; 300:21; 325:23 350:19.
  • TPC Sawgrass: 250 yards from the tee: 31 yards wide; 275:32; 300:30; 325:28 350:20.
  • Bay Hill: 250 yards from the tee: 32 yards wide; 275:33; 300:33; 325:39 350:29.
  • PGA National: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:27 350:25.
  • Riviera: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26 350:28.
  • TPC Scottsdale: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:30; 300:28; 325:27; 350:27.
  • Pebble Beach: 250 yards from the tee: 33 yards wide; 275:33; 300:29; 325:30 350:26.
  • Torrey Pines South: 250 yards from the tee: 26 yards wide; 275:27; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
  • TPC Stadium: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:27; 300:26; 325:26; 350:24.
  • Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.
  • Plantation Course: 250 yards from the tee: 59 yards wide; 275:61; 300:65; 325:60; 350:62.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Donald Ross designs include:

  • Aronimink GC – 2010 & 2011 AT&T National + 2018 BMW Championship
  • Detroit Golf Club –  Rocket Mortgage Classic
  • East Course at Oak Hill – 2013 PGA Championship
  • East Lake GC – Tour Championship
  • Pinehurst Number 2 – 2014 U.S. Open
  • Plainfield – 2011 & 2015 Barclays

Course Overview: Sedgefield CC is perennially one the two easiest Par-70s on the PGA Tour alongside Waialae CC (Sony Open). Take 2021 for instance, with 34 players finishing double-digits under Par.

Set to the south-east of Greensboro, the course has a typical Carolina feel with tree-lined fairways, pine straw and Bermudagrass throughout. Fairways are quite tight, but relatively easy to find if conditions are soft. Driving accuracy often helps, but the key to the course, which measures just over 7,200 yards, are Ross’s green complexes which although undulating and surrounded by shaved run-off areas, are actually large for the length of the course.

If the Champion Bermudagrass greens are receptive (as they were in 2017, for the opening 36 holes of 2018/19, the final 3 rounds of 2020 and the final round of 2021), that’s the green light for low scoring. Winners here year-in, year-out, must hit a minimum 13 greens per round and invariably break par every 1 in 3 holes. A fast start, excellent and consistent approach play and a reasonably hot putter are they keys to victory, plus it’s noteworthy that the front 9 plays far easier and has to be capitalised upon.

wyndham championship tips

Wyndham Championship Winners: 2021: Kevin Kisner (-15); 2020: Jim Herman (-21); 2019: J.T. Poston (-22); 2018: Brandt Snedeker (-21); 2017: Henrik Stenson (-22); 2016: Si-Woo Kim (-21); 2015: Davis Love III (-17); 2014: Camilo Villegas (-17); 2013: Patrick Reed (-14); 2012: Sergio Garcia (-18); 2011: Webb Simpson (-18); 2010: Arjun Atwal (-22).

OWGR of Winners: 2021: Kisner 52; 2020: Herman 311; 2019: Poston 164; 2018: Snedeker 88; 2017: Stenson 4.

Cut Line: 2021: -3; 2020: -3; 2019: -4; 2018: -3.

Lead Score Progression:

  • 2021: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -14; Round 3 -15; Round 4 -15.
  • 2020: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -19; Round 4 -23.
  • 2019: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -14; Round 3 -23; Round 4 -25.
  • 2018: Round 1 -11; Round 2 -14; Round 3 -16; Round 4 -21.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats | SG Stats.

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here.

You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Webb Simpson, Kevin Kisner, J.T. Poston, Billy Horschel, Si Woo Kim, Denny McCarthy, Justin Rose, Tyrrell Hatton, Chesson Hadley and Brendon Todd.

Wyndham Championship Winning Prices: 2021: Kisner 55/1; 2020: Jim Herman 600/1; 2019: J.T. Poston 100/1; 2018: Brandt Snedeker 28/1; 2017: Stenson 14/1; 2016: S.W. Kim 150/1; 2015: Love III 500/1; 2014: Villegas 125/1; 2013: Reed 80/1; 2012: Garcia 40/1; 2011: Simpson 20/1; 2010: Atwal 200/1. Past 8 Renewals Average: 197/1; Overall Average: 160/1.

Historical Weather:

  • 2021: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 93. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Due to inclement weather, play was suspended from 5:01 p.m. to 7:08 p.m. ET (suspension of 2 hours, 7 minutes). Due to darkness, the first round was suspended for the day at 8:14p.m. with 22 players left to complete their rounds. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 93. Wind WSW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy and hot. High of 91. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Sunday: Cloudy. High of 83. Wind E 4-8 mph. Due to anticipated thunderstorms, final-round tee times were moved to 7-9:12 a.m. ET in threesomes off Nos. 1 and 10. Due to wet course conditions, preferred lies were in effect.
  • 2020: Thursday: Cloudy with a high of 84. Wind ENE 4-8 mph. Friday: Cloudy with a high of 83. Wind NE 4-8 mph. Saturday: Cloudy. High of 80. Wind ENE 5-10 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a high of 78. Wind NNE 10-15 mph.
  • 2019: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 88. Wind SSW 4-8 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 81. Wind SSE 4-8 mph. Due to 3.17 inches of rain overnight, preferred lies were utilized for the second consecutive day. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high of 86. Wind NE 4-8 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 88. Wind SW 4-8 mph.
  • 2018: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High of 91. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 90. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 83. Due to a dangerous weather situation, round three was suspended at 3:27 p.m. and eventually called for the day at 6:45 p.m. Sunday: A total of 30 players were back in position at 8 a.m. Round three concluded at 10:24 a.m. Mostly cloudy. High of 88. Wind WSW 5-10 mph.

Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Greensboro, North Carolina, is here.

We very much revert to PGA Tour type this week in North Carolina. Up to 34 degrees Celsius, little wind and the threat of thunderstorms. With 64mm of rain last week, the course has already had a good soaking, but playing conditions really depend on what rain is received from Wednesday onwards. We saw fast greens here 12 months ago, limiting scoring to an extent, and that could well be the case again in 2022, although I’d expect scoring approaching -20/260 for the winner.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the RBC Canadian Open, which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events . Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

  • Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Taylor Pendrith; 2) Hayden Buckley; 5) Taylor Moore; 4) Stewart Cink / Shane Lowry; 6) Sungjae Im; 7) Corey Conners / Brian  Harman; 9) Rafa Cabrera Bello; 10) Charley Hoffman; 11) Matthew NeSmith; 12) Brandon Wu; 13) Aaron Wise; 14) Paul Barjon / Cameron Champ / Joel Dahmen / Alex Smalley; 18) Aaron Rai; 19) Michael Gligic; 20) Joohyung Kim; 21) Scott Stallings / Will Zalatoris; 23) Nick Hardy; 24) Billy Horschel / Anirban Lahiri / Keith Mitchell / Austin Smotherman / Jhonattan Vegas.
  • Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Mark Hubbard; 2) Scott Stallings; 3) Harold Varner III; 4) Will Zalatoris; 5) Chris Gotterup; 6) Shane Lowry; 7) Martin Laird / Adam Scott / Kevin Streelman; 10) Danny Lee; 12) Russell Knox / Chez Reavie / Alex Smalley; 15) Hank Lebioda / Adam Svensson; 17) Joohyung Kim / Matthias Schwab / Callum Tarren; 20) Aaron Baddeley / Taylor Pendrith / Michael Thompson; 23) Lee Hodges; 24) Ben Kohles / Adam Long / Patrick Rodgers.
  • Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Shane Lowry; 2) Adam Scott / Kevin Streelman; 4) Russell Henley / Kevin Kisner; 6) Joohyung Kim; 7) Andrew Putnam; 8) Jim Knous; 9) Cameron Percy; 10) Rafa Cabrera Bello; 11) Stephan Jaeger; 12) Aaron Wise; 13) Scott Piercy; 14) Tyrrell Hatton / Danny Willett; 16) Bill Haas; 17) Bo Van Pelt; 18) Stewart Cink; 19) Henrik Norlander; 20) John Huh / William McGirt; 22) Jonathan Byrd / Camilo Villegas; 24) Rickie Fowler / Si Woo Kim / Martin Laird.
  • Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Taylor Pendrith; 2) Shane Lowry; 3) Scott Stallings; 4) Will Zalatoris; 5) Joohyung Kim; 6) Adam Scott; 7) Kevin Streelman; 8) Hayden Buckley; 9) Harold Varner III; 10) Martin Laird; 11) Chez Reavie; 12) David Lipsky; 13) Stewart Cink / Aaron Wise; 15) Tyler Duncan / Alex Smalley; 17) Russell Henley / Adam Long / Callum Tarren; 20) Taylor Moore; 21) Lee Hodges / Billy Horschel / John Huh / Brandon Wu; 25) Chris Gotterup / J.T. Poston / Davis Riley.
  • Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Davis Love III; 2) Brendon Todd; 3) Chesson Hadley / Vincent Whaley; 5) Austin Cook / Taylor Moore; 7) Taylor Pendrith; 8) Denny McCarthy / Justin Rose; 10) Michael Gligic; 11) Keith Mitchell / J.T. Poston; 13) Mark Hubbard / Justin Lower; 15) Adam Long; 16) Adam Svensson; 17) Andrew Putnam; 18) Matt Wallace; 19) Christiaan Bezuidenhout / Joohyung Kim; 21) Nick Hardy; 22) Ricky Barnes; 23) Paul Barjon / Kevin Kisner / Patrick Rodgers.
  • Top 25 SG Total: 1) Taylor Pendrith; 2) Adam Long; 3) Joohyung Kim; 4) Adam Scott; 5) Shane Lowry; 6) Scott Stallings; 7) Kevin Streelman; 8) Keith Mitchell / Taylor Moore / Vincent Whaley / Will Zalatoris; 12) Mark Hubbard / Andrew Putnam / Adam Svensson; 15) Michael Gligic; 16) J.T. Poston; 17) Hayden Buckley; 18) Harold Varner III; 19) Kevin Kisner / Patrick Rodgers; 21) Martin Laird; 22) Callum Tarren; 23) Corey Conners / Billy Horschel; 25) Chesson Hadley.

For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at Sedgefield Country Club since 2016 click here.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the past 10 winners here since the green complexes were changed to Champion Bermudagrass in 2012 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

  • 2021, Kevin Kisner (-15). 304 yards (65th), 62.5% fairways (31st), 80.6% greens in regulation (8th), 30’4″ proximity to hole (27th), 64.3 % scrambling (20th), 1.78 putts per GIR (37th).
  • 2020, Jim Herman (-21). 298 yards (51st), 82.1% fairways (4th), 87.5% greens in regulation (1st), 30’2″ proximity to hole (30th), 44.4% scrambling (71st), 1.71 putts per GIR (23rd).
  • 2019, J.T. Poston (-22). 297 yards (53rd), 80.4% fairways (2nd), 86.1% greens in regulation (1st), 26’11” proximity to hole (3rd), 100% scrambling (1st), 1.69 putts per GIR (20th).
  • 2018, Brandt Snedeker (-21). 315 yards (25th), 57.1% fairways (51st), 80.6% greens in regulation (19th), 27’10” proximity to hole (12th), 57.1% scrambling (46th), 1.64 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2017, Henrik Stenson (-22). 294 yards (71st), 75.0% fairways (8th), 87.5% greens in regulation (3rd), proximity to hole 25’9″ (1st), 44.4 % scrambling (67th), 1.62 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2016, Si-Woo Kim (-21). 307 yards (51st), 73.2% fairways (6th), 83.3% greens in regulation (8th), proximity to hole 24’11” (1st), 81.5 % scrambling (1st), 1.63 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2015, Davis Love III (-17). 298 yards (33rd), 71.4% fairways (10th), 77.8% greens in regulation (18th), proximity to hole 29’1″ (7th), 75.0 % scrambling (9th), 1.71 putts per GIR (11th).
  • 2014, Camilo Villegas (-17). 301 yards (39th), 76.8% fairways (6th), 77.8% greens in regulation (8th), 29’5″ proximity to hole (6th), 87.5 % scrambling (1st), 1.75 putts per GIR (24th).
  • 2013, Patrick Reed (-14). 298 yards (11th), 64.3% fairways (42nd), 83.3% greens in regulation (1st), 29″6″ proximity to hole (2nd), 58.3% scrambling (56th), 1.72 putts per GIR (14th).
  • 2012, Sergio Garcia (-18). 302 yards (26th), 73.2% fairways (13th), 72.2% greens in regulation (26th), 32″2″ proximity to hole (29th), 80.0% scrambling (1st), 1.63 putts per GIR (2nd).

Tournament Skill Averages:

  • Driving Distance: 43rd, Driving Accuracy: 17th, Greens in Regulation: 9th, Proximity to Hole: 12th, Scrambling:27th, Putting Average 14th.

Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:

  • 2021, Kevin Kisner (-15). SG Off the Tee: 34th, SG Approach: 12th, SG Around the Green: 26th, SG Tee to Green: 12th, SG Putting: 8th.
  • 2020, Jim Herman (-21). SG Off the Tee: 5th, SG Approach: 4th, SG Around the Green: 56th, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 3rd.
  • 2019, J.T. Poston (-22). SG Off the Tee: 28th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 13th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 13th.
  • 2018, Brandt Snedeker (-21). SG Off the Tee: 47th, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 5th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 19th.
  • 2017, Henrik Stenson (-22). SG Off the Tee: 35th, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 29th, SG Tee to Green: 6th, SG Putting: 3rd.
  • 2016, Si Woo Kim (-22). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 5th, SG Around the Green: 42nd, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 34th.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

  • SG Off the Tee: 23rd, SG Approach: 5th, SG Around the Green: 29th, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 13th.

So let’s take a view from players as to how Sedgefield Country Club since the introduction of Bermudagrass greens (2012) has set up in the past and what specific skills it requires:

Kevin Kisner (2021): “My record’s pretty good here at Sedgefield and I enjoy where everybody– we’ve got to put the ball in the same place. And then I love the greens surfaces, obviously what I grew up on. There’s less of those courses on Tour than ever, so when we get to weeks like this, I really have to be on form to play well and these are my chances to hold the trophies.”

Jim Herman (2020): Yeah, 61, it’s great anytime you can do that. Just gave myself good looks. You’ve got to be below the hole, got to have makeable putts out here or you’re going to be playing defensive. If you’re above the hole, you’re going to be just lagging all day long. I had a really good approach game today, I think I hit almost every green. The one green I did miss, I putted in from off the green. Yeah, good iron play. Starts off the tee with me, got to hit it in the fairway. I’m not as long as most guys out here, so I’ve got to put it in play, give myself a chance from the fairway.”

J.T. Poston (2019): Ball-striking’s been really good, haven’t missed many greens. Just keep giving myself a lot of looks and hit a lot of good putts. Made a few, but just really steady, solid golf for the most part. The golf course was easy enough to where if you hit fairways, you could attack some pins, and my iron play was really solid all week. So it was nice to give myself some looks, and today I finally made some putts and was able to get that low one in there.”

Brandt Snedeker (2018): “Yeah, I’m playing a lot better than I have been early in the year. I’m excited about the way I’m rolling the ball, putting great again. For whatever reason, seems like every week I have a bad round or a bad nine holes that kind of keeps me out of contention. So a big focus this week is staying patient. This is a golf course I had a lot of success on, I love it. It breeds kind of my kind of play hit, hit fairways, hit some greets, lots of wedge opportunities. It’s going to turn into a birdie-fest like it always does because the course is in great, shape so you know what you have to do when you step up on the first tee, put the ball in play and give yourself a lot of opportunities. So excited about that and excited about seeing how my game’s feeling. After last week at the PGA I kind of found something I thought on the weekend and hopefully it kind of stays in there and gives me a good chance to win this week.”

Henrik Stenson: “I think whenever you play a week after a Major championship, which isn’t all the time for me I found in the past you can find the golf courses quite easy when you play the tougher course the week before and you still kind of keep a strong mindset in terms of one shot at a time which, again, you always want to have but probably even more so at the Majors. It’s crucial. I’ve had some good success in particular playing in Germany the week after the U.S. Open a lot of times and done well.

Have left the driver out this week. Strong 3-wood, 4-wood and 2-iron. Putting myself in position and trying to stay out of that bermuda rough. If you do that you got pretty short clubs and you can be accurate with your second shots. Plenty more of the same tomorrow. I’m trying to be kind of offensive to defensive spots, if you know, off the tee on a few of holes but then you get a lot of 8, 9 irons, wedges into these greens and they’re pretty receptive. You can be pretty aggressive if you’re feeling you got good numbers and feels right, go for it. We’ll produce a lot of birdie chances the first two days. My putting has been excellent. I’ve seen the lines nicely. Hit a lot of good putts and I’ve been hitting a lot of good iron shots as well, some wedges and some mid to short irons, and that’s kind of what I keep on doing and trying to hit a lot of fairways with the 3-wood and trying to attacking the hole and that’s been working nicely so far. No need to change that for tomorrow.

Luke Donald: “It’s a course I really enjoy. I love the design of this course. The greens are very true, very fast, quite undulating. You have to have some imagination. And nice to get off to a solid start. Conditions were nice out there. The greens are holding for the most part and not too much wind. So, you’re playing well there’s some opportunities out there. I struggled a little bit visualizing that tee shot. It was a couple tee shots you don’t see them land and 18 is one of them. I hit a poor tee shot left and had to chip out. I had a good number with a little wedge, stick it to that pin. Would have been disappointing to drop one there after playing so well for the rest of the round.

Webb Simpson: “It goes back to the point of the golf course. Bay Hill, Tiger won so many times. Akron produces long hitters winning there. Depending on the golf course you kind of create your own pool of winners that are usually going to win there, whereas this course, like I said, it favours nobody. So I think that’s what makes it hard to repeat, that if you have a field of whatever, what did we have, 156 players, that most everybody in the field has a legitimate chance to win whereas, you know, maybe you go to San Diego, I can’t remember the last time somebody who didn’t bomb it winning there. That’s a place where you take out 50 percent of the field from the start of the week. like I said earlier about the golf course, I don’t think it’s one where you have to play many years to learn it, where a lot of courses you do. Like Augusta is a good example whereas this golf course is more straight in front of you and, again, it’s a level playing field for everyone which I wish we played more like these.

Tiger Woods: “The golf course is tricky. I know it’s wet and the fairways, ball in hand but the greens are so fast. They’re so speedy. Hideki, myself, even Brooks, we ripped a couple putts down there probably 10, 15 feet past the hole and even though as wet as they are, they’re still that fast downhill, down-grain and got to respect it and it puts such a premium on iron play to put the ball in the right spot and give yourself putts. For the majority of the day I was putting myself in perfect spots where I can be aggressive.

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners of the Wyndham Championship since 2012:

  • 2021 – Kevin Kisner: Round 1: 9th, Round 2: 12th, Round 3: 3rd.
  • 2020 – Jim Herman: Round 1: 13th, Round 2: 36th, Round 3: 5th.
  • 2019 – J.T. Poston: Round 1: 16th, Round 2: 9th, Round 3: 5th.
  • 2018 – Brandt Snedeker: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2017 – Henrik Stenson: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2:3rd, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2016 – Si-Woo Kim: Round 1: 41st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2015 – Davis Love III: Round 1: 7th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 10th.
  • 2014 – Camilo Villegas: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 7th, Round 3: 8th.
  • 2013 – Patrick Reed: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
  • 2012 – Sergio Garcia: Round 1: 20th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.

Shots From the Lead: Below are the shots from the lead during the tournament of Wyndham Championship winners since 2012:

  • 2021 – Kevin Kisner: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 7 back, Round 3: 4 back.
  • 2020 – Jim Herman: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 5 back, Round 3: 4 back.
  • 2019 – J.T. Poston: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: 3 back.
  • 2018 – Brandt Snedeker: Round 1: 4 ahead, Round 2: 2 ahead, Round 3: 1 ahead.
  • 2017 – Henrik Stenson: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
  • 2016 – Si Woo Kim: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 2 ahead, Round 3: 4 ahead.
  • 2015 – Davis Love III: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 4 back.
  • 2014 – Camilo Villegas: Round 1: 1 ahead, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 4 back.
  • 2013 – Patrick Reed: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: level.
  • 2012 – Sergio Garcia: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.

Form of Wyndham Championship winners since 2010:

  • Kevin Kisner: 63rd WGC St Jude/73rd Open/8th Rocket/5th Travelers.
  • Jim Herman: 77th PGA/MC Memorial/MC Workday Open/33rd RBC Heritage.
  • J.T. Poston: 29th Barbasol/MC JDC/11th Rocket/MC Travelers.
  • Brandt Snedeker: 42nd PGA/8th Canadian/MC Open/3rd Greenbrier.
  • Henrik Stenson: 13th PGA/17th Bridgestone/11th Open/ 26th Scottish Open.
  • Si-Woo Kim: 25th Travelers/MC PGA/23rd Canada/2nd Barbasol.
  • Davis Love III: MC PGA/MC Canada/54th Greenbrier/MC Travelers.
  • Camilo Villegas: WD Canada/45th JDC/26th Greenbrier/MC Quicken National.
  • Patrick Reed: 9th Canada/7th JDC/MC Greenbrier/34th Quicken National.
  • Sergio Garcia: MC PGA/29th Bridgestone/MC Open/29th BMW Intl.
  • Webb Simpson: MC PGA/9th Greenbrier/16th Open/8th AT&T National
  • Arjun Atwal: MC Price Cutter/17th Witchita/68th Greenbrier/74th Canada.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

  • 2021 – Henley – AM -8/62 – 50/1.
  • 2020 – Hoge/Sloan/Varner III – 2PM/1AM -8/62 – 125/1/200/1/80/1.
  • 2019 – An/Im – AM/PM  Split -8/62 – Both 66/1.
  • 2018 – Snedeker – AM -11/59 – 33/1.
  • 2017 – Every – AM -9/61 – 200/1.
  • 2016 – Cabrera-Bello/Na – Both AM -7/63.
  • 2015 – Compton/Hoge/McGirt – 2AM/1PM -8/62.
  • 2014 – Villegas – PM -7/63.
  • 2013 – Fisher/Stroud – AM/PM Split -6/64.
  • 2012 – Pettersson – AM -8/62.
  • 2011 – Gainey/Quinney – AM/PM Split -7/63.
  • 2010 – Atwal – PM -9/61.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of Bermudagrass PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

  • 4 – Jason Day, Brian Gay, Bill Haas, Billy Horschel, Zach Johnson.
  • 3 –  Si Woo Kim, Kevin Kisner, Camilo Villegas.
  • 2 –  Luke Donald, Jason Dufner, Harris English, Rickie Fowler, Russell Henley, Davis Love III, Scott Piercy, Justin Rose, Adam Scott, Webb Simpson, Robert Streb.
  • 1 – Aaron Baddeley, Jonas Blixt, Wesley Bryan, Jonathan Byrd, Cameron Champ, Stewart Cink, Austin Cook, Tyler Duncan, Tommy Gainey, James Hahn, Tyrrell Hatton, Jim Herman, Garrick Higgo, Mackenzie Hughes, Sungjae Im, Sung Kang, Patton Kizzire, Satoshi Kodaira, Martin Laird, Andrew Landry, Adam Long, Peter Malnati, Keith Mitchell, Francesco Molinari, Sebastian Munoz, C.T. Pan, J.T Poston, Rory Sabbatini, J.J. Spaun, Scott Stallings, Sepp Straka, Kevin Streelman, Brian Stuard, Nick Taylor, Michael Thompson, Brendon Todd, Nick Watney, Aaron Wise.

Recent winning totals of -15, -21, -22, -21, -22, -21, -17, -17, -14 and -18 highlight that the key to success in Greensboro is two-fold: make plenty of eagles and birdies, plus minimise dropped shots. It’s also worth noting that we’re returning to a Champion Bermudagrass greened golf course this week – naturally many have played months of Bentgrass and Poa Annua grasses. Indeed this is the first Bermudagrass greened tournament since the Zurich Classic of New Orleans in April. On the current PGA schedule the only courses where Champion Bermudagrass greens feature are TPC Southwind, Quail Hollow (since the 2017 PGA Championship) and the Country Club of Jackson.

It won’t surprise in a tournament where 4 straight rounds of 65/66 is the target that streaky scorers dominate the contending positions. However game-wise since the swap to Champion Bermudagrass greens, it’s safe to say that Garcia, Reed, Villegas, Love III, Si Woo Kim, Henrik Stenson, Brandt Snedeker, J.T. Poston, Jim Herman and Kevin Kisner all primarily won through their ability to create enough birdie opportunities with neat tee-to-green play, which they then converted.

Those looking for Donald Ross-positive players should look no further than PGA Tour tracks Aronimink (AT&T National 2009/10 & 2018 BMW Championship), Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage Classic), East Lake (Tour Championship) as well as Oak Hill (2013 PGA Championship) and Pinehurst No2 (2014 U.S. Open).

Sedgefield has a habit of producing 1st time PGA Tour winners with J.T. Poston, Si Woo Kim, Patrick Reed, Webb Simpson, Arjun Atwal and Ryan Moore all recording their first main-Tour victories here since 2008. FedEx Cup standings-wise, Webb Simpson was 12th in the standings when he captured his first title here at 20/1 in 2011. Since then rankings of 102nd, 78th, 105th, 187th, 44th, 75th, 80th, 83rd, 192nd and 69th suggests that we should certainly look a little deeper than the very obvious candidates this week.

Si Woo Kim 1.5pts EW 28/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill

It’s a return to Bermudagrass this week and that means I’m always interested in Si Woo Kim who I’ve sprinkled some of my stake money on.

The winner of the 2016 Wyndham Championship here at Sedgefield Country Club, the 2017 Players Championship on the Pete Dye designed Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass, and the 2021 American Express on another Dye design at PGA West, Si Woo is always a player I observe closely.

Short golf courses featuring Bermudagrass or Paspalum greens are the South Korean’s domain and that’s easy to see with a CV which also includes 4th at the Sony Open, (Waialae 2016), 2nd at the Barbasol Championship (Robert Trent Jones Golf Trail 2016), plus 3rd at the OHL Classic (El Camaleon 2017). You can add to that form here at the Wyndham which over and above his 2016 win reads 5th (2019), 3rd (2020) and 2nd (2021). He’s actually earned $1,957,840 here in Greensboro and, in this field, ranks 2nd here for Strokes Gained Tee to Green and 5th for Strokes Gained Total across our Wyndham Championship Strokes Gained Analysis.

With only 3 weeks remaining in the Presidents Cup qualification process and with points earned over the Wyndham, FedEx St Jude and BMW Championship earning a 25% premium, it’s now or never for Si Woo in his quest to land a coveted spot in Trevor Immelman’s International Team for Quail Hollow, and where better than Sedgefield to earn a bucket full of points. 15th at the Open Championship (5th after 54 holes) and a career-best 14th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic over his past couple of outings, Si Woo was 4th for Strokes Gained Approach at St Andrews and 11th for Strokes Gained Putting in Detroit.

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Denny McCarthy 1.5pts EW 40/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365

I’ve always said that for every Collin Morikawa, who landed his first PGA Tour victory in only his 8th start, there is a Jimmy Walker, who took 186 PGA Tour starts across 12 years before he won his first title. Both have gone on to win Majors and represent the United States in the Ryder Cup. Morikawa, clearly, will continue to do so. Acclimatising to, and winning on, the PGA Tour can take time and in 2022 we have already seen Luke List (90/1), Tom Hoge (60/1), Sepp Straka (125/1) and J.J. Spaun (200/1), amongst others, take their first Tour titles after years of trying.

Denny McCarthy has 133 PGA Tour starts to his name. He’s had 8 top-10 finishes in that time, with an additional 7 top-6 finishes. The sort who traditionally has flirted with contention be that on a Saturday afternoon before dropping back, or by firing a low one on Sunday, Denny has undoubtedly made progress in 2022. 6th at The American Express in January came with a fast finish, but since the start of May, the 29 year-old from Maryland has been in the Sunday firing line across the Wells Fargo Championship, Memorial Tournament, U.S. Open and the John Deere Classic. 6th (Wells), 7th (Memorial), 11th (U.S. Open) and 2nd (John Deere) going into Sunday, he’s finished 25th, 5th, 7th and 6th respectively. That’s undoubted progress when in contention and an acceptance mentally that he can now mix-it at the top of the leaderboards.

From here the next logical step is a victory, as he said himself, post his first Major top 10 finish at Brookline, “Obviously, putting is the strength of my game. So if I’m driving it in the fairway, hitting quality iron shots, and giving myself great looks, it’s a really great recipe for good golf. Like I said, I’m going to keep working hard. I know I’m really close to knocking the door down.”

Here at the Wyndham, we have seen J.T. Poston, Si Woo Kim, Patrick Reed, Webb Simpson, Arjun Atwal and Ryan Moore all record their first PGA Tour victories since 2008. So it’s not a huge step into the unknown to see Denny McCarthy add himself to that list this week. A player who undoubtedly goes well on short setups and who prefers Bermudagrass greens, Denny across 4 starts here at Sedgefield has finished 36th (2018), 22nd (2019), 9th (2020) and 15th (2021). Shook the rust off last week in Detroit, and I expect big things in Greensboro from Denny.

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J.T. Poston 1.5pts EW 40/1 (8EW, 1/5) with William Hill

2019 Wyndham Championship champion J.T. Poston makes my squad this week and also makes the top 3 in this week’s Predictor Model, which of course you can use free of charge here at Golf Betting System.

The history of this tournament is littered with multiple champions such as Byron Nelson, Sam Snead, Doug Sanders, Billy Casper, Sandy Lyle, Davis Love III and Brandt Snedeker. And in J.T. Poston we have a North Carolina native, where this tournament means a great deal, and who’s playing some excellent stuff. 3rd at the Harbour Town in April was just the start of a run that has seen him finish 9th at TPC Potomac, 2nd at TPC River Highlands and 1st at TPC Deere Run. Impressive stuff.

And after a low profile MC at the Open Championship, a return trip on the 3M Open charter flight to Minneapolis saw the current World Number 62 finish 11th at TPC Twin Cities. A -7/64 on Saturday showed that the 29 year-old is very much still in-form. Low scoring tournaments have always been the speciality of “The Postman” since his arrival on the PGA Tour back in 2016. 5th at the 2018 Barbasol, 7th at the 2019 Desert Classic, his win here in 2019 and 8th at the 2020 RBC Heritage all came at -21, -19, -21 and -17. 2nd at the Travelers Championship and his John Deere Classic win last month also came at -17 and -21 respectively.

If the greens are responsive, Poston can compete this week, and who knows a place in the OWGR top 50 could well be within his grasp in his home state.

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Keith Mitchell 1pt EW 50/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Coral

Rewind to 2018 and we were on-board Brandt Snedeker who won this at 28/1. An opening -11/59 certainly helped that week as he eventually won by 3 shots from C.T. Pan and Webb Simpson. Back then Keith Mitchell was a Tour rookie and he shot 65-66 to sit T4 after 36 holes on his Wyndham Championship debut.

Interviewed on Friday, he said, “We’ve been hitting a lot of little stinger 2-irons just trying to get the ball in front of us. If you have a little extra club into the greens, it’s fine because you can definitely attack from the fairway but not from the rough. It’s a course I know from the FootJoy AJGA tournament I played here eight, nine years ago, so I actually remember this golf course.

Keith went onto shoot 69 on Saturday, but it all became a little too much on Sunday, shooting 71 and dropping to 41st. 55th last year, I very much like Mitchell for this Carolina golf course test.

The 2019 Honda Classic winner at PGA National, Keith the week after went on to finish 6th at Bay Hill, a feat he bettered by one position in 2020 when finishing 5th. 7th at the Sony Open, 9th at the Honda Classic and 13th at the Players Championship earlier this year, Keith has also played well at the long, classical, Major-hosting Par 71 at Quail Hollow finishing 8th (2019) and 3rd in 2021. That course features Champion Bermudagrass greens as per Sedgefield this week. So Mitchell can roll the rock on Bermudagrass greens, no questions asked.

And this season has undoubtedly been Mitchell’s most consistent. 3rd at the CJ Cup last autumn, June saw the 30 year-old, who lives on St Simons Island, Georgia, finish 18th at The Memorial, 7th at the RBC Canadian Open and 6th at the Travelers Championship. That’s 6 top-10 finishes this season for those counting. In this field he ranks in the top 12 for Strokes Gained Putting and top 10 for Strokes Gained Current Form across my 8-week Wyndham tracker. I think he’s due.

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Mark Hubbard 1pt EW 75/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365

Mark Hubbard is worth following at the Wyndham after his Hole in One heroics in Detroit.

Hubbard across the last few weeks has undoubtedly been wracking up plenty of highlight moments and courageously has worked himself back into full status on the PGA Tour for next season. From extremely limited starts on the main Tour and as low as 137th in the FedEx Cup in mid-May, Hubbard grasped the nettle and delivered 7 straight pay cheques, including 13th at the John Deere Classic, 3rd at the Barbasol Championship and 4th at the Barracuda Championship. Safe at 86th in the FedEx Cup standings, he can now look forward to outings at Sedgefield and the Playoff event at TPC Southwind next week.

But I think he’s a serious danger to go well in Greensboro. This may be a step up from the Barbasol and Barracuda, but only a few weeks back he impressed when 9th and 5th at the close of Saturday across consecutive weeks, shooting 65 and 12 points respectively to improve his position come Sunday. A sign of improving confidence and maturity.

A Korn Ferry winner on Bermudagrass greens at the 2019 LECOM Suncoast Classic, Mark has enough correlating course form across TPC River Highlands (13th 2021); Detroit Golf Club (12th 2020) and here at Sedgefield (24th 2017 & 15th 2020) for me to think he can get in the mix again on his 6th appearance here. Across my 8-week Strokes Gained tracker, in this field he ranks 1st for Approach, 13th for Putting and 12th for Current Form.

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