Congratulations if you were on-board J.T. Poston at 40/1 last week at the Shriners Open. A player I always look out for, it was great to see him pick up his 3rd PGA Tour title. This column landed full each-way payouts on Taylor Pendrith (22/1) and Davis Thompson (25/1) at the Shriners.
This week we return to Japan for the ZOZO Championship. This is the 6th running of the ZOZO and the 5th in Japan after the success of 2019’s inaugural event. Let’s be honest, Tiger Woods winning the first ever PGA Tour sanctioned event in Japan was the stuff of legend and it was followed up by home hero Hideki Matsuyama winning this in 2021. Throw in defending champion Collin Morikawa who is from Japanese-Chinese descent and Japan welcomes the PGA Tour with welcoming arms.
The ZOZO is a short-field 78 player, no cut event. It features the top 60 available PGA Tour players from the Regular Season FedExCup standings and a host of the Japan Golf Tour’s best talent. With an $8.5 million prize fund it’s the richest tournament of the FedEx Fall.
Before we go into the detail surrounding the ZOZO Championship, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,400 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
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Course Guide: The Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club is just outside of Japan’s sprawling capital Tokyo. Set to east of the planet’s biggest city near Chiba, Narashino CC has 3 full sets of 18 holes, namely the King, Kuko and Queen courses. The ZOZO Championship this week will play a composite layout on what is a typical Japanese course. Parkland in nature, the course is tree-lined, features plenty of doglegs and small putting surfaces. Another Japanese golf course design feature is that some of the holes at Narashino feature 2 greens. ZOZO like to utilise this for the tournament, with different greens used across different days, and this will be a feature on the par-4 4th hole.
Narashino Country Club, Chiba, Japan: Designer: Kinya Fujita 1976, with PGA Tour (2016-19) renovations; Course Type: Classical, Parkland, Mid-Score, Short; Par: 70; Length: 7,079 yards; Holes with Water In-Play: 4; Fairways: Zoysiagrass; Rough: Zoysiagrass 2″; Greens: Bentgrass; Tournament Stimp: 10.5ft.
Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:
2023: 70.51 (+0.51), Rank 12 of 58 courses
2022: 69.52 (-0.48), Rank 15 of 41 courses
2021: 70.48 (+0.48), Rank 11 of 50 courses
2019: 69.52 (-0.48), Rank 15 of 41 courses
Course Overview: The Narashino Country Club will provide a typically Japanese test this week. A short Par 70 at 7,079 yards – extended from 7,041 yards in 2021 – the course is instantly different, as it is based upon a 34 front / 36 back format. The composite course is composed of 5 par-3s, 10 par-4s and 3 par-5s. Not a typical Par 70 then. The par-5s come in at 587 yards (6th), 608 yards (14th) and 562 yards (18th) so in essence the 6th and 18th are reachable in theory to the longer hitters.
Another fascinating angle here at Narashino are the 10 par-4s, which are distinctly either short or punishingly long. I personally can’t recall a course where none of the par-4s measure between 426 yards and 485 yards, but this is exactly what we see here. Instead there are 5 holes which at sub-425 yards provide excellent birdie opportunities, versus the other 50% which measure 505 yards (4th), 486 yards (9th), 486 yards (11th), 490 yards (12th) and 491 yards (17th). Hit a poor tee shot and players severely struggle for par on these holes.
The course itself is undulating and set in beautiful Japanese parkland. A tree-lined venue, lines off the tee are moderately claustrophobic. Players have referenced Chapultepec which hosted the WGC-Mexico Championship from 2017 to 2020. There are 6 doglegs to add character, but in general the rough is little real penalty. Putting surfaces are small in size, well defended by bunkers and feature Bentgrass. Green complexes are also contoured, making target areas very small for approach shots.
Narashino Country Club also features Zoysiagrass fairways and rough. Zoysiagrass is a relative rarity on the PGA Tour featuring at TPC Southwind (FedEx St Jude Championship, WGC St Jude Invitational and before that the St Jude Classic), East Lake (Tour Championship), plus CJ Cup Byron Nelson venue TPC Craig Ranch (current) plus with previous host venue Trinity Forest, which was planted from tee to green with Zoysiagrass. These fairways also featured at the Atlanta Athletic Club (2011 PGA Championship, Bellerive Country Club (2018 PGA Championship) and Valhalla (May’s PGA Championship). Zoysia isn’t the most popular of fairway grasses with many players who claim the quirky grass promotes flyers.
The final unique, to the PGA Tour anyway, aspect we find at Narashino, are the twin greens. This is a typical aspect of Japanese golf course design, with A and B greens, many featuring different grasses, so that foot traffic is managed over a golf season. For the ZOZO the par-4 4th hole which is +500 yards, will see 2 greens in operation across the tournament. For the rest of the course, if approaches landed on the non-used greens surfaces, there will be a free drop on the nearest point of relief.
ZOZO Championship Winners: Hosted at Narashino CC: 2023: Collin Morikawa (-14); 2022: Keegan Bradley (-15); 2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-15); Hosted at Sherwood CC: 2020: Patrick Cantlay (-23); Hosted at Narashino CC: 2019: Tiger Woods (-19).
Shots From the Lead: Below are the ZOZO Championship winners since 2019 here at Narashino and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
Incoming Form of ZOZO Championship winners since 2019:
Collin Morikawa: 4th Tour/25th BMW/13th St Jude/MC Open Champ.
Keegan Bradley: 5th Sanderson/58th BMW/MC St Jude/44th Rocket Mortgage.
Hideki Matsuyama: 59th CJ Cup/67th Shriners/8th Fortinet/26th Tour.
Patrick Cantlay: 38th CJ Cup/8th Shriners/43rd US Open/12th BMW.
Tiger Woods: 37th BMW/WD Northern Trust/MC Open Champ/21st US Open.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im, J.J. Spaun, Beau Hossler, Tom Hoge, Sahith Theegala and Max Homa.
2023: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 77. Wind SSW 8-15 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 79. Wind SW 20-30 mph with gusts up to 36 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High of 68. Wind ESE 5-10 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 66. Wind S 6-12 mph.
2022: Thursday: Overcast, with rain throughout the day. High of 63. Wind NNE 8-13 mph, with gusts to 15 mph. Friday: Overcast, with light showers throughout the day. High of 67. Wind NNE 10-15 mph. Saturday: Overcast in the morning and generally sunny in the afternoon. High of 74. Wind NNE 5-12 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High of 75. Wind ENE 5-10 mph.
2021: Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High of 64. Wind NNE 5-10 mph. Friday: Scattered showers. High of 53. Wind NNE 6-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 63. Wind NNW 10-15 mph. Sunday: Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 63. Wind NNE 5-10 mph.
2019: Thursday: Cloudy. High of 69. Wind ENE 10-15 mph. Friday: The start of the second round was postponed on Friday due to intense rains and thunderstorms. The nearest reporting station measured 9.79 inches of rain on Friday. Saturday: Sunny. High of 72. Wind NNW 4-8 mph. Preferred lies were in effect for the second round. For safety reason, spectators were not permitted to be on site for the second round. Sunday: Cloudy. High of 72. Wind N 5-10 mph. The third round began at 6:30am on Sunday, with players in groups of three starting of tees 1 and 10. Final-round tee times ran from 12:00pm – 2:00pm – Monday finish. Monday: Mostly Cloudy. High of 60. Wind NNE 5-10 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Chiba, Japan is here. The forecast for the ZOZO looks mainly very pleasant. Temperatures will be between 18-23 degrees Celsius, – 64-73 Fahrenheit – which is standard for the ZOZO. Winds are low, apart from a forecasted, gusting 20mph north-easterly wind on Sunday, which would make Narashino play tough, and is the opposite wind to what we saw here last year in Friday’s play. 65% chance of rain overnight Thursday evening through early Friday morning could see the course play nice and soft after the opening 18 holes.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the Tour Championship / Betfred British Masters which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Collin Morikawa; 2) So Woo Kim; 3) Sungjae Im; 4) Sahith Theegala; 5) Hideki Matsuyama; 6) Justin Thomas; 7) Taylor Moore / Gary Woodland; 9) Max Homa; 10) Xander Schauffele; 11) Jhonattan Vegas; 12) K.H. Lee / Min Woo Lee; 14) Kevin Yu; 15) Ryan Fox; 16) Andrew Novak; 17) Chris Gotterup / Rico Hoey / Kurt Kitayama; 20) Rickie Fowler / Doug Ghim; 22) Patrick Fishburn; 23) Victor Perez; 24) Carson Young; 25) Luke List.
Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Kurt Kitayama; 2) Collin Morikawa; 3) Hideki Matsuyama; 4) Justin Thomas; 5) Sungjae Im; 6) Ben Kohles / Xander Schauffele; 8) Sahith Theegala; 9) Doug Ghim; 10) Si Woo Kim; 11) Mac Meissner; 12) Andrew Putnam; 13) Rickie Fowler; 14) Gary Woodland; 15) Lee Hodges; 16) Adam Svensson; 17) Matt Kuchar; 18) Tom Hoge; 19) Nick Taylor; 20) Rico Hoey / Beau Hossler; 22) Mark Hubbard / Nate Lashley / Min Woo Lee.; 25) Andrew Novak.
Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Sungjae Im; 2) Collin Morikawa; 3) Xander Schauffele; 4) Justin Thomas / Brendon Todd; 6) Sahith Theegala; 7) Hideki Matsuyama; 8) Adam Svensson; 9) Ben Griffin / Chan Kim / Andrew Putnam; 12) Beau Hossler; 13) Kurt Kitayama; 14) Sam Stevens; 15) Seamus Power; 16) Charley Hoffman; 17) Min Woo Lee / Chandler Phillips; 19) S.H. Kim; 20) Doug Ghim / Harry Hall / K.H. Lee; 23) Eric Cole / Andrew Novak; 25) Rico Hoey.
Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Collin Morikawa; 2) Kurt Kitayama; 3) Sahith Theegala; 4) Sungjae Im; 5) Justin Thomas; 6) Si Woo Kim / Hideki Matsuyama / Xander Schauffele; 9) Doug Ghim / Gary Woodland; 11) Min Woo Lee; 12) Rickie Fowler / Andrew Putnam; 14) Adam Svensson; 15) Mac Meissner; 16) Rico Hoey / Beau Hossler; 18) Ben Griffin / Andrew Novak / Seamus Power; 21) Chan Kim; 22) Kevin Yu; 23) Matt Kuchar; 24) Patrick Fishburn / J.J. Spaun.
Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Collin Morikawa; 2) Davis Riley; 3) Sungjae Im; 4) Xander Schauffele; 5) Ben Silverman / Justin Thomas; 7) Taylor Moore / Sahith Theegala; 9) Harry Hall; 10) Hideki Matsuyama; 11) Sam Stevens; 12) Rickie Fowler; 13) Justin Lower / Sami Valimaki; 15) Charley Hoffman; 16) Ryo Hisatsune; 17) Chad Ramey / Patrick Rodgers; 19) Tom Hoge; 20) Jhonattan Vegas; 21) Patrick Fishburn; 22) Nico Echavarria; 23) Seamus Power; 24) Matt Kuchar; 25) Beau Hossler.
Top 25 SG Total: 1) Collin Morikawa; 2) Sahith Theegala; 3) Sungjae Im; 4) Justin Thomas; 5) Xander Schauffele; 6) Hideki Matsuyama; 7) Kurt Kitayama; 8) Si Woo Kim; 9) Rickie Fowler; 10) Beau Hossler; 11) Doug Ghim; 12) Seamus Power / Andrew Putnam; 14) Harry Hall; 15) Min Woo Lee / Sam Stevens; 17) Ben Griffin; 18) Charley Hoffman; 19) Taylor Moore; 20) Jhonattan Vegas; 21) Patrick Rodgers; 22) Matt Kuchar; 23) Patrick Fishburn / Rico Hoey / Victor Perez.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of ZOZO Championship winners since 2019 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test – worthy of note that driving distance was not captured (2019) plus no data at all from the 2021 event:
2023, Collin Morikawa (-14). 324 yards (14th), 36.5% fairways (68th), 73.6% greens in regulation (3rd), 63.2% scrambling (17th), 1.60 putts per GIR (2nd).
2022, Keegan Bradley (-15). 298 yards (18th), 59.6% fairways (23rd), 77.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 68.8% scrambling (25th), 1.66 putts per GIR (6th).
2019, Tiger Woods (-19). 65.4% fairways (7th), 76.4% greens in regulation (3rd), 64.7% scrambling (26th), 1.64 putts per GIR (2nd).
Tournament Skill Averages:
Driving Distance: 16th, Driving Accuracy: 33rd, Greens in Regulation: 3rd, Scrambling: 23rd, Putting Average 3rd.
Let’s take a view from players as to how Narashino Country Club has set-up in the past and what specific skills it requires:
Collin Morikawa (2023): “Yeah, the fairways are definitely firmer. We had a little bit of rain this past weekend on Sunday, but other than that, the fairways are much firmer than we’ve ever seen, so we’re going to see a lot of different maybe tee shots, different clubs off tees for a few holes. But the greens are very soft right now, the greens are very receptive. You’ve got a lot of spin, so I think guys are going to be playing fairly aggressive. There’s going to be a lot of birdies being made out here with even a 6-iron in hand because they’re able to stop the ball. Make sure start off, get in the fairway and then from there you can kind of attack some pins.
Some holes played a lot shorter with the wind direction and the firmer fairways, so you got like hole 11, I think I only had 8-iron in; in the practice rounds I was hitting 5-iron. Having a little bit more roll, tournament speed. It’s nice when certain holes that you consider to be essentially par holes, you’re able to give yourself a birdie opportunity really.
Yeah, when it was gusting, you had to control your golf ball. I think I counted my fairways when I was walking up 18, I hit three fairways today. So playing out of the rough and playing out of the trees is not easy on this golf course because the greens are fairly small, pins are, I wouldn’t say tucked but there’s some slope, so you put yourself in your some wrong spots.
Look, those first few holes, 1 and 2 are very gettable, 3 can be gettable. Then you get to 4 and 5 and you’re like if I make par, if I make a four and a three there, you’re going to be happy.”
Keegan Bradley (2022): “Well, it’s just a really great course. Reminds me of the courses where I grew up on where I was born, tree-lined holes, got to hit good shots into little greens, so great, I love it out here. Everything felt pretty good. I made a lot of really nice putts, especially coming in. I drove the ball nice. I feel like my game’s in good shape.”
Hideki Matsuyama (2021): “The course has not changed a lot. On this course, I just need to hit on the fairway otherwise 2nd shot will be tricky. Greens are fast as they were in 2019, keeping on the fairway and putting on greens well would be key to play solidly.”
Collin Morikawa (2021): “Yeah, you know, we’re playing pretty much at sea level, so cool kind of San Francisco Bay area weather, but with this wind, when it’s downwind you can be hitting a couple clubs less and when you’re playing into the wind it can be a couple to three clubs more, so it’s all about flighting your ball. Today I definitely wouldn’t say I had my best ball-striking, but the putting saved me and I can thank the day for that.”
Tommy Fleetwood (2021): “It’s just a really good test of golf. You have to hit the fairways. Ball is pretty much uncontrollable out of the rough, which is how it should be. Then the greens, the greens are really fast with a lot of slope. I think they had some great pin positions today. It’s basically, if you’re out of position, the game gets very, very hard around this golf course, and if you’re in position, you can still mess it up at any time. So it’s great, it’s a great challenge. Obviously the standard of play these days is amazing so scoring will still be pretty good I’m sure at the end of the week. Yeah, it’s a really good golf course to play and test yourself on. Like you say, you always have to be on your guard really, you never know what’s around the corner.”
Tiger Woods (2019):”This grass, Zoysia, man, you can get some serious flyers out here, monster flyers. The one I hit on the last hole, we were trying to hit an 8-iron 200 yards and hit it 200. That’s not something I normally do.”
Rory McIlroy (2019):” I feel like it’s either you have like there’s a lot of short par 4s, under 400 yards but then there’s a lot of par 4s that are between 490 and sort of 510. So you’ve got some real tough par 4s, you’ve got par 4s you can score on. The par 3s, two of the par 3s you can, they’re short irons and then a couple of the par 3s are longer. I think the golf course has got a lot of variety.
There’s quite a few wedges into par 4s but then there’s a couple holes today that I hit a 4 and a 5-iron into them. I guess there’s a stretch on the back nine which is pretty tough as well. But it’s a great course. It’s in great condition, the greens are so pure, and it sort of reminds me a little bit of the course we play in Mexico, Chapultepec. Reminds me a little bit of that, just sort of the tree lined and sort of the doglegs and having to sort of cut off corners and stuff, but I like it.
Played pretty well, but the setup of the golf course this afternoon was really tough. The pins were all tucked away, they were on little slopes, sort of found it hard to get close to the holes. You’re hitting it to 20 feet, it’s hard to hole putts on those greens because they’re so slopey and you’re having to give them two or three feet of break every time.”
Collin Morikawa (2019): “It’s very different than what I’ve seen before, especially on the PGA Tour this last summer. It’s a lot more narrow, the fairways are a lot smaller as compared to last week. What freaked me out was the double greens. I was a little surprised, I thought I was hitting one green but turns out the hole was on another one. But I loved it. The greens are amazing. Obviously with the rain it’s going to be pretty soft. Hitting these small greens and getting off the tee in the fairway, will be the keys this week.”
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
5 – Justin Thomas
4 – Hideki Matsuyama.
3 – Matt Kuchar, Xander Schauffele, Jhonattan Vegas.
2 – Rickie Fowler, K.H. Lee.
1 – Harry Hall, Lee Hodges, Charley Hoffman, Max Homa, Sungjae Im, Collin Morikawa, Seamus Power, Brendon Todd.
To this point we have had 5 winners of the ZOZO Championship. Pre-Covid pandemic, the inaugural ZOZO held here at Narashino Country Club in 2019 was won by Tiger Woods. He was a 33/1 chance. Inactive for 10 weeks, Tiger had relatively flat in-bound from of 37/WD/MC/21 but naturally had won the Masters in April.
The 2020 ZOZO was held at Sherwood Country Club in California in the build-up to the November Masters. Patrick Cantlay won at 28/1. Cantlay was a non-winner in 2020 but had shown a little form following on from a disappointing FedEx Cup Playoff campaign, where he didn’t make the Tour Championship. 43rd at the U.S. Open was followed by 8th at the Shriners Open, where Patrick had led after 36 and 54 holes. 38th at the CJ Cup the week before was low-key, but Cantlay had closed with a promising -5/67.
Back in Japan at Narashino in 2021, home hero Hideki Matsuyama took the title at 16/1. Hideki had finished runner-up to Woods in 2019 so clearly liked the course. In-bound form like the previous ZOZO winners was again patchy. 26th at the Tour Championship, Matsuyama had played 3 times across the new PGA Tour season, registering 6th at the Fortinet Championship, 67th at the Shriners Open and 59th at the CJ Cup the week before. Like Tiger, Hideki had won the Masters earlier in the year.
2022 saw the well-backed Keegan Bradley win at 40/1, taking his first PGA Tour title for over 4 years. Course form of 13th (2019) and 8th (2021) clearly highlighted a player who liked Narashino, plus Bradley arrived after finishing 5th at the Sanderson Farms Championship a fortnight earlier.
Narashino Country Club will be the host course again in 2024. It was the venue for the Suntory Open between 1973 and 1997. But there could well be an angle from 2016 which saw Prayad Marksaeng win the Japan Senior Open. The popular Thai player had won the 2008 Dunlop Phoenix Tournament hosted at the Phoenix Country Club in Japan, and was runner-up again there in 2017.
Carrying this Narashino / Phoenix Country Club line of enquiry forward to the 2019 ZOZO, winner Tiger Woods won the Dunlop Phoenix titles back in 2004 and 2005 and was runner-up there in 2006. 2021 winner and 2019 runner-up Hideki Matsuyama also has an interesting Phoenix Country Club record which includes 2nd (2012), 6th (2013), 1st (2014), 2nd (2015), 5th (2017) and 8th (2019).
2022 winner Keegan Bradley had finished 41st at Phoenix Country Club, so nothing to shout about there, but Andrew Putnam, who finished T2 behind Bradley at the ZOZO, had played the 2018 Dunlop Phoenix, finishing 17th. Taking us to 2023 champion Collin Morikawa who had played the Dunlop in 2019 finishing 5th.
Collin Morikawa enters this week in a familiar setting but in a strange situation. A 2-time Major Championship winner and 6-time PGA Tour winner, Morikawa has never defended a PGA Tour title at the same course on which he took the title. Wins at the 2019 Barracuda Championship, 2020 Workday Open and 2021 WGC-Workday Championship were never defended, so this trip to Accordia Narashino will be a little different for the 27 year-old, who amazingly hasn’t won in 2024.
That situation for me will motivate Collin, who must be frustrated that he hasn’t won far more in recent times with his consistently high level of play. Take this year where he has finished 3rd at The Masters, 4th at the PGA Championship, 2nd at the Memorial Tournament and 2nd at the Tour Championship. Naturally Scottie Scheffler won The Masters, Memorial and Tour Championship amongst those narrow defeats for Morikawa. So a tournament without the World Number 1 presents a huge opportunity for the defending champion who has Japanese and Chinese heritage.
2nd at the Tour Championship came with the 72-hole lowest score, and Morikawa’s top-level golf continued at the Presidents Cup in Montreal where he won 4 of 5 matches being top combined points scorer with Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay. Whilst Xander has won PGA Championship, Open Championship and Olympic titles in recent months and home hero Hideki Matsuyama won the FedEx Cup Play Off St Jude Championship as recently as August, I get the feeling that Morikawa will be focussed on landing his 7th PGA Tour victory – and his first ever PGA Tour tournament defence at the ZOZO.
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Sahith Theegala 2.5pts EW 14/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
I think motivation plays a huge part in these Fall Series events, and in the elite player category I’d like to think that Sahith Theegala would love to win only his 2nd PGA Tour title this week in Japan.
His achievement at the recent Tour Championship was pretty immense finishing 2nd for 72-hole Scoring and ultimately clinching 3rd in the FedEx Cup for which he garnered a cool $7.5 million bonus. However I still feel that Sahith wants to prove himself to both his peers and the golfing public by winning again, 13 months after winning the Fortinet Championship in California. A 1.5 point contribution at the recent Presidents Cup for Team USA came from only 3 matches and included a tied singles match with Byeong Hun An. That will only boost Theegala to greater things.
A lover of short golf courses – Theegala’s win at Silverado was on a short Par 72 – Sahith also has course from that correlates nicely with recent winners here in Morikawa, Bradley and Matsuyama. 2nd (2024) at Kapalua; 4th (2023) at Torrey Pines; 6th (2023) at Riviera; 9th on debut at Augusta National (2023); 5th (2022) at Muirfield Village; 2nd (2022) at TPC River Highlands. 5th here in 2022, I could easily see Sahith continuing his excellent Off the Tee, Approach and Tee to Green numbers that have come with his current run of high-quality play.
The Zoysiagrass angle is also worth highlighting with Theegala. 13th (2022) & 13th (2023) at TPC Southwind; 2nd for 72-hole scoring at East Lake in September and that 5th here at Accordia Narashino 2 years ago highlights a player who gets on with this week’s quirky fairway and rough agronomy.
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Tiger Woods, Hideki Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley and Collin Morikawa were all Major champions who went on to win this ZOZO Championship. The Accordia Narashino course clearly stretches and brings the cream of the crop to the very top of the leaderboards. Will Zalatoris always comes to the fore on tougher tests and his Major Championship record is incredible. 6th at the 2020 U.S. Open, 2nd at the 2021 Masters, 6th at the 2022 Masters, 2nd at the 2022 PGA Championship where he lost in a play off to Justin Thomas, 2nd at the 2022 U.S. Open and 9th at the 2024 Masters. Remember 2023 was a write-off because of two herniated disks.
His return to a full schedule in 2024 with a rebuilt swing has been a struggle, but a quick glance as his best results reveals 2nd at Riviera, 4th at Bay Hill and 9th at Augusta National. In summary classical, but more importantly, tougher tracks with higher scoring. Narashino should suit and intriguingly Will’s only PGA Tour victory to date was at TPC Southwind which features Zoysiagrass fairways.
12th (St Jude Invitational) and 13th at the BMW Championship last time we saw Zalatoris were stronger results on courses where -17 (Matsuyama) and -12 (Bradley) won the tournament, and it’s worth noting that Will ranked 9th for Total Driving, 6th for Ball Striking and 19th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green at the BMW, showing a player who is progressing back to his ball-striking best. Currently outside the OWGR top 50 which I’m sure would be a target to close 2024 with momentum.
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Gary Woodland 1pt EW 50/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports
Gary Woodland has impressed greatly over recent outings. 16th at the Black Desert Championship plus 9th at the Shriners Open highlight a player making strides – with last week’s top 10 being his first on the PGA Tour since 9th at the Genesis Invitational in March 2023. 1st (Black Desert) and 18th (TPC Summerlin) for Tee to Green, he was also 3rd (Black Desert) and 11th (TPC Summerlin) for Woodland’s forte – Greens in Regulation.
Asked about his progress last week in Las Vegas, Gary answered, “I am starting to drive it better, iron play, controlling the golf ball like I haven’t in a long time, which is nice. Then putts start going in, start putting some good scores up.”
Fact is Gary at 137th in the Fall Series List also needs to finish the season strongly as his 5-year PGA Tour exemption for winning the 2019 U.S. Open comes to a close this year, so the 40 year-old must be relishing a trip to Asia where he has traditionally played well in the Fall. 2nd (2013), 2nd (2014) and 5th (2018) at TPC Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia; 2nd (2018) and 3rd (2019) at Nine Bridges in South Korea; Woodland has also finished 5th here at Accordia Narashino in 2019.
The sort whose results progress gradually and can string back-to-back contending performances together, I’m prepared to get behind Gary this week in Japan.
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Rickie Fowler must be gaining in confidence heading to a Narashino course where he was runner-up to Keegan Bradley in 2022.
This year has seen no top-10 finishes, no trip to the FedEx Cup Playoffs, and naturally no trip to the Tour Championship, but at 65th in the OWGR an invite to the 2025 Masters is still within grasp if he can claw himself into the top 50 by year end. With huge OWGR points on offer this week, the ZOZO offers a huge opportunity.
16th at the Sanderson Farms Championship and 23rd at the Shriners Open last week shows real progress and that comes through in his Strokes Gained numbers. Across my 8-week Strokes Gained trackers in this field he ranks in the top 20 for Off the Tee, top 15 for Approach, Tee to Green and Putting, plus the top 10 for Strokes Gained Current Form.
36- and 54-hole leader here when he lost to Keegan Bradley by 1 shot 2 years ago, Rickie also has top 5 finishes across Malaysia (2010); plus 3rd (2014) & 6th (2016) in China (Sheshan) on his Fall trips to Asia.
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