Paul Williams' tips for the 2010 Qatar Masters
Off to Doha this week and with over 10 seasons worth of analysis and history to wade through we have plenty to work with. Some key observations this week which might help your predictor selections:
1) Long Hitters prosper here. Quiros was #1 for driving distance last year; 4 of the top 5 in 2008 were in the top 10 for driving distance; Stenson was #2 in 2006.
2) Accuracy off the tee is less important, however hitting greens is vital. Quiros hit only 39% of fairways but ranked #1 for GIR last year; 2008 winner Scott was #1 for GIR, Henrik Stenson was #3; Goosen was #1 for GIR in 2007 and Stenson #8 in 2006. Key stat here!
3) No Englishman has won the Qatar Masters in its 12 outings to date.
4) Recent course form isn't essential - Quiros missed the cut in 2009 before winning a year later - Scott and Goosen both won having not played the tournament for some time. Stenson is regularly in the mix with a win and a clutch of top-10 finishes or better.
5) Current form is key, as is coming off the back of a successful season.
You can see how I've translated these points into my predictor weightings here. The predictor is flying at present on the European tour with the winner being names in the top-3 predictions from the previous 3 tournaments. You can't ignore this and I'm using the predictor as the basis of my tips this week. Why not share your thoughts with us on Twitter or Facebook?
For the last few weeks I've been measuring the success of tipping the top 5 predictor results 1pt Each Way - the results are here. Basically this system is showing a profit of 41.5 points so far this European Tour season with a profit in 4 of the 5 tournaments so far. I'll have some of that! On that basis, here's the top 5 and my tips for this week:RESULT: T24
These guys tick all the boxes and the predictor would suggest the winner will come from one of these 5.
All odds and bookmaker offer correct at 22:30GMT 26.1.10 but naturally subject to fluctuation.