A poor Sunday from 80/1 shot Tom Lewis saw the Englishman slip from a promising enough position to obscurity, which in turn put paid to any hope of a return from our team in Paris last week. It would have taken something incredible though to surpass the brilliance of Guido Migliozzi who birdied 9 of his last 13 holes to wrestle the title from long-time leader Rasmus Hojgaard, so congratulations to those of you who managed to pick out the Italian.
On to this week then and although the Rolex Series may have relegated the Alfred Dunhill Links a little in terms of stature, it’s still more than a decent title to win with a $5m prize fund up for grabs, plus the event is equally about the celebrity amateurs who play alongside their golfing heroes at and around the Home of Golf for 4 days.
The late omission of Patrick Reed from this week’s field has done little to reduce its quality, with Rory McIlroy once again installed as the 9/2 favourite. Matt Fitzpatrick (11/1), Shane Lowry (11/1), Tyrrell Hatton (20/1) and Tommy Fleetwood (20/1) follow behind the Northern Irishman in this pro-am format.
The event is played over 3 courses for the first 3 days – Kingsbarns, Carnoustie and St Andrews – then the final round is contested around the Old Course with slightly trickier pin positions after 3 days of pretty generous placements to help the amateurs.
Temperament is an important factor in this quirky event where rounds can take over 6 hours to complete, with some of the amateurs barely able to claim ‘hacker’ status. Long waits of half an hour or longer are common on some tees as play grinds to a halt, so those with the personality to enjoy the occasion whilst retaining focus when it’s eventually their time to play a shot are at an advantage.
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Course Overview. The Old Course at St Andrews needs little introduction as the ‘Home of Golf’ is steeped in golfing tradition dating back to the very roots of the sport some 600 years ago. The 17th Road Hole, with its notorious bunker, and the closing 18th, which features the Swilcan Bridge and the Valley of Sin, are the most famous closing holes on the planet and this rolling links is recognisable worldwide to those with just the most basic of golfing knowledge.
The 7,318 yard, par 72 has a peculiar setup of 14 par-4s and just a pair each of par-3s & par-5s and features 7 double greens with huge, fescue/bentgrass putting surfaces. The other two tracks used for a day each in this event are Carnoustie and Kingsbarns with Carnoustie tending to play the toughest of all 3 courses, however much depends on the strength of the breeze.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Alfred Dunhill Links Championship that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Winners & Prices. 2021: Danny Willett, 100/1; 2019: Victor Perez, 175/1; 2018: Lucas Bjerregaard, 50/1; 2017: Tyrrell Hatton, 22/1; 2016: Tyrrell Hatton, 66/1; 2015: Thorbjorn Olesen, 200/1; 2014: Oliver Wilson, 500/1; 2013: David Howell, 125/1; 2012: Branden Grace, 50/1; 2011: Michael Hoey, 250/1; 2010: Martin Kaymer, 16/1.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for St Andrews is here.
Our trip to Scotland will be greeted with autumnal conditions with fairly heavy rain expected on Friday, temperatures struggling to venture beyond the mid-50s Fahrenheit after chilly starts, and winds of between 15-20mph after a relatively calm opening day on Thursday.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the last 10 winners of this event gives us a little more insight into the type of player suited to this test:
2021, Danny Willett (-18). 60.4% fairways (32nd), 87.5% greens in regulation (3rd), 66.7% scrambling (15th), 1.75 putts per GIR (16th).
2019, Victor Perez (-22). 70.6% fairways (21st), 90.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 42.9% scrambling (38th), 1.68 putts per GIR (12th).
2018, Lucas Bjerregaard (-15). 64.1% fairways (19th), 83.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 41.7% scrambling (32nd), 1.68 putts per GIR (1st).
2017, Tyrrell Hatton (-24). 60.4% fairways (39th), 85.2% greens in regulation (1st), 100% scrambling (1st), 1.72 putts per GIR (13th).
2016, Tyrrell Hatton (-23). 72.9% fairways (27th), 83.3% greens in regulation (10th), 77.8% scrambling (11th), 1.73 putts per GIR (20th).
2015, Thorbjorn Olesen (-18). 57.0% fairways (130th), 86.1% greens in regulation (7th), 50% scrambling (87th), 1.69 putts per GIR (14th)
2014, Oliver Wilson (-17). 62.8% fairways (89th), 75.9% greens in regulation (64th), 88.5% scrambling (1st), 1.85 putts per GIR (89th)
2013, David Howell (-23). 69.9% fairways (93rd), 88.9% greens in regulation (10th), 75.0% scrambling (32nd), 1.67 putts per GIR (8th)
2012, Branden Grace (-22). 62.8% fairways (112th), 84.7% greens in regulation (10th), 63.6% scrambling (46th), 1.67 putts per GIR (6th)
2011, Michael Hoey (-22). 59.4% fairways (120th), 81.9% greens in regulation (29th), 81.8% scrambling (7th), 1.66 putts per GIR (7th)
2010, Martin Kaymer (-17). 73.5% fairways (40th), 81.9% greens in regulation (5th), 69.2% scrambling (10th), 1.78 putts per GIR (26th)
With the exception of Carnoustie, fairways are wide and greens large and easy to hit, so much of this event comes down to how players perform on and around the greens.
Converting birdie chances is critical if players are going to compile a contending score and minimising bogeys from off of the green is also vital in an event where somewhere around 20-under is typically the target to be in with a sniff on Sunday afternoon in average conditions.
As well as the event’s nuances that are more obvious in that a slow, pro-am event on 3 different links tracks isn’t likely to suit everyone, there are also some other important points to consider:
With the exception of Victor Perez in 2019, Tyrrell Hatton in 2016, Oliver Wilson in 2014 and Stephen Gallacher in 2004, every other winner of this event since 2001 already had a career victory on the European Tour.
GB & Ireland players have won 13 of those 20 Alfred Dunhill Links Championships, Karlsson (08), Kaymer (10), Grace (12), Olesen (15),Bjerregaard (18) and Perez (19) being the exceptions.
8 of the last 13 winners here had a win in the current or previous season to their name; 3 of those 13 were arriving here having won their previous event.
8 of the last 13 winners here had recorded at least a top-10 in this event in their career prior to winning.
Incoming Form. In terms of incoming form, the winners here since 2010 have been very mixed as is reflected by odds ranging from 16/1 to 500/1, and more than half of the winners in that period have been 100/1 or longer pre-event.
Martin Kaymer (16/1) in 2010 completed a personal hat-trick of wins here having captured the US PGA Championship and KLM Open in his two previous events. Michael Hoey (250/1) hadn’t finished inside the top 30 in his previous 10 starts, David Howell (125/1) had recorded a solitary top-10 in the previous 6 months, Oliver Wilson (500/1) had failed to make the top-30 in his previous 15 events, most of which were on the Challenge Tour, and Thorbjorn Olesen (200/1) had missed 10 of his previous 14 cuts after his return from a wrist injury.
Despite some good early-season form, Tyrrell Hatton arrived here in 2016 with incoming efforts of MC/MC/45, however his successful defence came off the back of consecutive top-8 finishes. 2012 winner Branden Grace (50/1) had shown poor recent form on the European Tour before winning here, although he did arrive fresh off the back of a low-key victory the previous week on the Sunshine Tour.
Lucas Bjerregaard had shown some of the most consistent form of recent victors here with 4 consecutive top-20 finishes before winning in 2018, included in which was a play-off defeat at Crans on his penultimate start, whereas Victor Perez had finished 10th in Sweden 3 starts before winning in 2019.
After the 2020 break for Covid, Danny Willett won here at 100/1 12 months ago off of very patchy looking form. 33rd at the Open Championship was solid, however 3 missed cuts and a tailed-off 71st at Wentworth hardly inspired punters. A very mixed bag indeed:
2021, Danny Willett: 18/MC/11/64/26/67/MC/33/MC/MC/71/MC
2019, Victor Perez: 61/MC/MC/15/MC/MC/26/61/28/10/MC/MC
2018, Lucas Bjerregaard: 3/71/5/61/MC/MC/39/WD/9/6/2/20
2011, Michael Hoey: 70/1/31/54/66/MC/MC/34/MC/52/48/MC
2010, Martin Kaymer: 34/MC/28/12/8/21/6/MC/7/22/1/1
Event Form. Going back to 2010, half of the winners had fairly tangible form here – in fact Kaymer, Wilson, Olesen and Willett had all finished runner-up in this event previously in their respective careers and Hatton was defending champion in 2017.
David Howell had 4 top-8 finishes from 12 starts here prior to winning and clearly also enjoys the format. Hoey, Grace, Hatton (in 2016) and Bjerregaard on the other hand would have been very difficult to pick out simply by eyeballing their previous efforts at the Alfred Dunhill Links, and Victor Perez was making his debut here in 2019:
2021, Danny Willett: 42/2/27/5/MC/MC/52/MC/26
2019, Victor Perez: Debut
2018, Lucas Bjerregaard: 32/MC/MC/MC
2017, Tyrrell Hatton: MC/MC/1
2016, Tyrrell Hatton: MC/MC
2015, Thorbjorn Olesen: 45/2/MC/58
2014, Oliver Wilson: MC/32/MC/40/2/MC/21/34/59
2013, David Howell: 3/58/6/5/37/MC/MC/60/MC/8/MC/34
2012, Branden Grace: MC
2011, Michael Hoey: MC/19/MC
2010, Martin Kaymer: 15/2
In years where conditions have been tougher, it’s been players who’ve featured towards the top of the GIR stats on the week who’ve tended to prevail, and with conditions looking a little less favourable this week I’ll use that as my starting point for this week’s team.
This is links golf though so a strong short game is also of value and contenders will need to bring all aspects of their game this week if they’re going to compile a competitive total.
My selections are as follows:
Tyrrell Hatton 3pts EW 16/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
For the third time this September, Rory McIlroy heads the betting in a DP World Tour event at a short price – and once again there’s no logical reason why he shouldn’t contend and potentially win here this week.
A whisker away from making an eagle at the 72nd hole which would have taken the BMW PGA Championship into a play-off, the World No.2 then finished 4th at the Italian Open, having led at the halfway point and looked the likeliest winner for long stretches. Seeing Rory in the mix this week is highly likely, however I can’t take him at the price given that he’s always come up just short here at St Andrews in his career to date, whether at the Open Championships hosted here or at this event specifically.
Matt Fitzpatrick is slightly easier to leave out, despite having come within a play-off of winning the Italian Open, given a fairly non-descript record here at the Home of Golf, and Shane Lowry returns to action after his first win in over 3 years at Wentworth a fortnight ago and is by no means guaranteed to hit the same heights after his customary celebrations.
Boasting a better Dunhill Links record than any of those aforementioned players, and more than hinting at some good underlying form last time out in Italy, is Tyrrell Hatton and he’s the pick of the players for me at the top of the market.
After a couple of false starts here early in his career, the Buckinghamshire man got to grips with this 3-course rotation in some style, winning back-to-back Dunhill Links titles in 2015/16 and has twice finished runner-up since. For a typically hot-headed character, there’s something about this location, or this event, which seems to bring the best out of him, and seeing him go well again here isn’t remotely out of the question.
8th in Italy last time out saw the 30 year-old recover from a lacklustre opening round of 72 to post the joint best round of the day on the Friday, which contained 9 birdies for a 65 total; although he trod water from there, it was a notable improvement over his effort at Wentworth the week before as he heads to his most prolific event this week. Prior to that, 11th at the Open Championship, 31st at the St Jude Championship and 23rd at the BMW Championship all contained a really positive round or two in decent company to suggest that his game’s not far away at all.
4th for SG Off the Tee in Italy was his best recorded career performance on that measurement, trumping even those weeks when he’s been victorious on Tour, and 9th for GIR combined with 8th for Scrambling that week are exactly the kind of pointers I’m looking for in a player looking to take on the market principals here this week. RESULT: T7
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Tommy Fleetwood 2pts EW 20/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
Just below Hatton in the betting, I also can’t ignore Tommy Fleetwood on what is undoubtedly compatible terrain.
5th here on debut back in 2011, the Englishman has never failed to make it to the final day here at the Dunhill Links, recording a further two 5th place finishes, a 7th last year, plus twice he’s finished runner-up around these parts. Put simply, if Tommy Fleetwood fails to add this title to his CV before he hangs up his golf shoes for good, I’ll be very surprised indeed. Perhaps that win comes this week.
4th here at St Andrews in July’s Open Championship further reinforces his credentials, and he was also Shane Lowry’s closest challenger at Royal Portrush back in 2019 if you’re looking for further links pedigree. 2nd and 4th at Renaissance over the past two seasons is more evidence to add to the argument for backing Tommy this week, as are top 10s at Portstewart and Hillside over the years.
After a break from golf following the sad passing of his mother, Fleetwood flew out of the traps to co-lead the BMW PGA Championship after day one on his last start, before the event was suspended and ultimately reduced to 54-holes following the passing of Her Majesty The Queen.
A pair of 73s to complete his tournament in Surrey wasn’t what we were looking for with the Englishman on the team that week, however I’m happy to give him another chance this week, given that his game looked very strong indeed for those first 18 holes. RESULT: T22
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At a juicy mid-price, I’m taking a chance on England’s Matt Wallace whose motivation levels should have taken a healthy boost now that Ryder Cup qualification is well and truly underway.
The Hillingdon man missed out on Thomas Bjorn’s team in 2018, despite winning three times in the 6 months leading up to Europe’s victory at Le Golf National, including a phenomenal win in Denmark with the captain eagerly watching his every move. It wasn’t to be that year for Matt, and in truth 2021 qualifying was a washout in comparison, however the slate’s clean now and the Hillingdon man will be doing his damnedest to put himself in position this time around I’m sure.
A missed cut at Wentworth wasn’t an ideal start to that goal, granted, particularly with the number of points on offer that week; this week isn’t a million miles behind though and certainly more valuable than some of the low-key events on the circuit, so this has got to be a good week to target for success.
Prior to that weekend off in Surrey, Wallace forced a play-off at Crans-sur-Sierre which he lost on the first extra hole – disappointing undoubtedly, however his short game and putting were back to their very best – something that had been largely missing from his game for some time up to that point – and his SG Tee to Green game looked in relatively good shape too, ranking 27th on that count.
21st on his last start at the Fortinet Championship on the PGA Tour saw further improvement with the long game, ranking 14th for SG Off the Tee and 12th for SG Tee to Green, combined with another excellent week around the greens, and he returns to the Dunhill Links where he’s shown increasingly progressive form, finishing 59th, 28th then 15th last time out in 2019. Any further improvement on that record would give us the chance of an each-way payout or better here this week. RESULT: MC
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Travis Smyth became the first LIV golfer to win a regular OWGR-ranking event since the advent of the breakaway Tour with his success in Taiwan over the weekend, and perhaps that will inspire some of his colleagues who are in similar situations – such as Adrian Otaegui – to do the same.
Like Smyth, Otaegui has been more of a bit-part player on the LIV circuit, with each man playing just 3 of the 5 events thus far and neither involved in the most recent tournament in Chicago, however the Spaniard’s form on the regular Tour has arguably been better up until last week. 3rd at the Hero Open on his last visit to Scotland at the nearby Fairmont course, Adrian followed that up with 13th place finishes at both the BMW PGA Championship and last week in France to reinforce the fact that he’s playing some very tidy golf at present.
Generally an accurate sort who can blow a little hot and cold with his irons, there seems to have been a little more consistency with his approach play of late. 8th for GIR at both the Cazoo Classic and at the aforementioned Hero Open, that improved to 3rd last week in Paris which is noteworthy for a player like Otaegui, even if it hasn’t fully transferred across to his Strokes Gained rankings thus far.
27th at last year’s Dunhill Links is the 29 year-old’s best result around these parts despite having opened with a 64 in 2019 to sit in 2nd place after 18 holes, however there’s further form to add to his recent outing at Fairmont St Andrews as the 3-time DP World Tour winner won his most recent title on that very track in 2020, carding a 23-under total in cold and damp conditions which suggests that he’ll have no trouble adapting to the weather this week in Scotland. RESULT: MC
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Padraig Harrington 0.5pt EW 140/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
Finally, after a relatively placid opening round on Thursday, the forecast for St Andrews looks quite challenging with wind and rain on Friday followed by a breezy weekend, and that might bring an experienced hand like Padraig Harrington to the fore.
Having turned 51 last month, the Irishman certainly doesn’t feel that he’s uncompetitive on the main Tours, despite spending an increasing amount of time on the Senior circuit. A win at the US Senior Open, 2nd at the Senior Open Championship, and two subsequent wins on the regular Senior circuit in the past 6 weeks suggests that he’s playing good enough golf to be competitive at DP World Tour level, and 4th at last year’s US PGA Championship proves that he’s still willing and able when the course and/or conditions are conducive to his skills.
Twice an Open Champion as we well know, if there’s any style of course on the DP World Tour circuit that’s likely to suit, it’s links golf – and the very fact that the Dublin man is twice a winner here in 2002 and 2006 tells us that he feels comfortable in both the pro-am format and in this part of the world.
Admittedly it’s been nearly 6 years now since Harrington won his 15th and most recent title at DP World Tour level at the Portugal Masters, however it seems all the rage nowadays for these long winless streaks to be ended – and as an added bonus he’ll take over as the oldest Tour winner in the history of the European/DP World Tour should he prove victorious this week. RESULT: T17
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