After a strong start to Sunday in Ireland which saw headline selection Billy Horschel reach 12-under par and a tie for the lead after the first 4 holes, the rest of the day didn’t go remotely to plan as the American limped home in 43 shots to disappear from sight. On a day of capitulations and poor finishes, Vincent Norrman was left clear in the clubhouse at 14-under to take the spoils – congratulation if you were on the Swede at around 50/1 pre-event.
On to this week we go and to the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth which is one of the highlights of the golfing calendar for me, and our annual return to the famous Surrey parkland course sees a strong field assemble as Team Europe look to sharpen their tools ahead of the Ryder Cup in a fortnight’s time.
Understandably Luke Donald’s team dominate the betting with Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Viktor Hovland priced in the 6/1-7/1 bracket, with Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick and Shane Lowry the next 4 players in the betting at 14/1 or longer.
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West Course, Wentworth, Surrey, England. Designer: Harry Colt, 1926 with Els re-design 2009/2016; Course Type: Classical; Par: 72; Length: 7,267 yards; Fairways: Bentgrass, Fescue, Poa Annua; Rough: Rye, Fescue; Greens: Creeping Bentgrass.
Course Overview. A week after Chris Wood’s victory here in 2016, Wentworth began its second major transformation under the guidance of Ernie Els. This time, with the help of European Golf Design, the brief was to return the course back closer to the original vision conceived by Harry Colt but with consideration for how golf has developed in modern times. Whereas the changes implemented by Els and his team back in 2009, with a few subsequent revisions, toughened the track up with a series of relatively severe features, these latest changes softened the course to a degree, particularly on and around the greens.
The layout and routing wasn’t altered during the 2016 renovations, however in total 29 bunkers were removed from the track completely and all remaining bunkers were reconstructed and generally softened to make the course more playable. A sub-air system, as per Augusta National, was installed on all 18 greens and the putting surfaces were stripped and re-laid with creeping bentgrass to replace the tired and inconsistent Bent/Poa mix.
The 3rd, 4th, 5th, 12th and 15th greens were rebuilt to a degree whereas the 8th, 11th, 14th and 16th were completely overhauled in a bid to make the surfaces more amenable. The entrances to a number of greens were opened too as part of the changes to encourage more shot-making options and to make them more accessible from the ground, in turn allowing balls to roll onto the greens as per Colt’s original concept here.
Winners & Prices. 2022: Shane Lowry, 18/1; 2021: Billy Horschel, 28/1; 2020: Tyrrell Hatton, 16/1; 2019: Danny Willett, 66/1; 2018: Francesco Molinari, 22/1; 2017: Alex Noren, 20/1; 2016: Chris Wood, 66/1; 2015: Byeong-Hun An, 100/1; 2014: Rory McIlroy, 14/1; 2013: Matteo Manassero, 66/1; 2012: Luke Donald, 8/1; 2011: Luke Donald, 15/2; 2010: Simon Khan, 200/1.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.
Last week’s hot and sunny conditions won’t continue through to the tournament itself, however that’s not to say that it won’t be pleasant for this time of year in England. Dry with sunny spells will be the overriding summary with temperatures reaching the low 70s Fahrenheit in the afternoons. Winds will be light at 5-10mph for the most part.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the last 13 winners here since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:
2022, Shane Lowry (-17, 54 holes). 61.9% fairways (29th), 90.7% greens in regulation (1st), 100% scrambling (1st), 1.76 putts per GIR (55th).
2021, Billy Horschel (-19). 64.3% fairways (13th), 80.6% greens in regulation (1st), 78.6% scrambling (3rd), 1.69 putts per GIR (29th).
2020, Tyrrell Hatton (-19). 71.4% fairways (5th), 66.7% greens in regulation (22nd), 83.3% scrambling (1st), 1.67 putts per GIR (14th).
2019, Danny Willett (-20). 64.3% fairways (16th), 76.4% greens in regulation (2nd), 70.6% scrambling (8th), 1.58 putts per GIR (2nd).
2018, Francesco Molinari (-17). 76.8% fairways (4th), 73.6% greens in regulation (8th), 89.5% scrambling (1st), 1.72 putts per GIR (25th).
2017, Alex Noren (-11). 60.7% fairways (32nd), 62.5% greens in regulation (26th), 70.4% scrambling (4th), 1.64 putts per GIR (9th).
2016, Chris Wood (-9). 69.6% fairways (7th), 73.6% greens in regulation (4th), 52.6% scrambling (18th), 1.70 putts per GIR (13th).
2015, Byeong-Hun An (-21). 62.5% fairways (35th), 84.7% greens in regulation (1st), 81.8% scrambling (1st), 1.69 putts per GIR (11th).
2014, Rory McIlroy (-14). 67.9% fairways (30th), 68.1% greens in regulation (22nd), 60.9% scrambling (21st), 1.65 putts per GIR (8th).
2013, Matteo Manassero (-10). 60.7% fairways (47th), 73.6% greens in regulation (4th), 63.2% scrambling (14th), 1.75 putts per GIR (35th).
2012, Luke Donald (-15). 58.9% fairways (40th), 70.8% greens in regulation (10th), 66.7% scrambling (2nd), 1.67 putts per GIR (2nd).
2011, Luke Donald (-6). 67.9% fairways (23rd), 70.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 57.1% scrambling (25th), 1.70 putts per GIR (4th).
2010, Simon Khan (-6). 87.5% fairways (1st), 81.9% greens in regulation (1st), 53.8% scrambling (34th), 1.81 putts per GIR (54th).
Hit two thirds of fairways, three quarters of greens and scramble and putt in the top 30 or so and you’ll be there or thereabouts is pretty much how recent winners since the original Els re-design have got the job done. Even when weather conditions have led to higher or lower scores, it’s still tended to be players who’ve done sufficiently well in all aspects of their game who’ve prevailed here.
Traditionally this has been a strong all-round test and contenders can’t be lacking in any particular area of their game this week if they want to succeed. 2 of the top-3 finishers last year all ranked 3rd or better when it came to GIR on the week, and eventual winner Shane Lowry continued the trend we’d seen the previous few years where scrambling was a critical factor, as the Irishman ranked first for getting up and over the 4 days.
Stroke Gained Stats: From a Strokes Gained perspective, SG Tee to Green was the most consistent stat from the past three years with eventual winners Tyrrell Hatton, Billy Horschel and Shane Lowry each topping that statistic:
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
Incoming Form: The three short-priced winners (McIlroy and Donald twice) entered the event off the back of some strong form and at least 2 consecutive top 10s immediately prior to victory here. Manassero’s form was less obvious with a couple of top 20s in his previous 4 outings, whereas Simon Khan’s win came from completely off the page as a late sponsor’s invitation. 2015 winner Byeong-Hun An arrived with immediate form of 8/15 and had a further two top-10 finishes to his name for the year to date.
2016 winner Chris Wood had finished 54th in Ireland the week before winning here which was his first event for over a month – 8th at the Dubai Desert Classic had been the Bristolian’s best effort of the year to date. 2017 winner Alex Noren had won 4 times the previous season and although he’d not taken any further silverware in 2017 up to the point of his victory here, he had made the quarter-finals of the WGC Match Play before finishing a creditable 10th at TPC Sawgrass in elite company on his last start.
Francesco Molinari’s form for the season to date in 2018 wasn’t anything special, hence the 22/1 price point despite his strong course form. 2 top-20s in his previous 5 starts hinted at some developing form though and the rest is history as he won the Quicken Loans National and then the Open Championship over his next few starts after proving victorious here.
2019 winner Danny Willett frustrated many punters having been a well-backed fancy on his previous start at Crans-sur-Sierre where he missed the cut. Prior to that though, he’d finished 6th at the Open Championship and produced 2 strong rounds in decent company at The Northern Trust in the PGA Tour Playoffs so, Crans aside, the signs were there.
2020 winner Tyrrell Hatton made it a hat-trick of victors here coming off the back of a missed cut, having finished 6 shots adrift of the line at the US Open on his previous start. 5th in terms of 72-hole scoring at the Tour Championship prior to that was strong form though in elite PGA Tour company, having already converted State-side earlier in the year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
2021 winner Billy Horschel had won the WGC Match Play earlier that year but his finishes since that point had been fairly average, albeit at PGA Tour level, until finishing 7th in 72-hole scoring at the Tour Championship on his previous start.
Last year’s winner Shane Lowry best results had come earlier in the year, finishing 3rd at both The Masters and the RBC Heritage in successive weeks. 12th at the BMW Championship on his last start meant that the Irishman just missed out on the PGA Tour’s East Lake finale, however he was undoubtedly trending and had openly stated that he was playing some very good golf:
Course Form: Given his recent form, the 100/1 about Benny An in 2015 was best explained by the fact that it was his Wentworth debut and, at the time, he was still a Tour maiden.
Until then, and including Shane Lowry, Billy Horschel, Tyrrell Hatton, Danny Willett, Francesco Molinari and Alex Noren from the past 6 renewals, recent winners here had produced a top-10 or better over the West Course in either its previous or current guise, suggesting that positive experience of this part of Surrey in some shape or form is pretty critical.
Wentworth hadn’t been Rory McIlroy’s favourite stomping ground prior to victory in 2014, however he had nevertheless produced a top-5 on his second attempt in 2009; Matteo Manassero had finished 7th two years prior to victory which followed his 17th place finish on debut; Luke Donald had finished 3rd in 2008 and 2nd in 2010 prior to his back-to-back wins in 2011 and 2012; even ‘surprise’ 2010 winner Simon Khan had previously finished 2nd at Wentworth 4 years previously, so his ability to play the course shouldn’t have been a total shock – which he again proved in 2013 when making the play-off.
Event form prior to winning here since 2010 is as follows:
2018, Francesco Molinari: 30/MC/35/17/50/7/9/7/5/55/2
2017, Alex Noren: MC/6/21/74/MC/21/32/WD/8/43
2016, Chris Wood: 6/MC/49/WD/21/4
2015, Byeong-Hun An: Debut
2014, Rory McIlroy: MC/5/48/24/MC/MC
2013, Matteo Manassero: 17/7/43
2012, Luke Donald: 18/25/7/3/35/2/1
2011, Luke Donald: 18/25/7/3/35/2
2010, Simon Khan: 24/MC/2/24/10/MC
This classical, tree-lined track is at its most challenging when the wind blows – even a 10-15 mph breeze can play havoc with club selection as it whistles around the treetops, however this week doesn’t look likely to cause the players too many problems and another renewal where scoring approaches 20-under is possible.
For me this is a combination of solid all-round play, bogey avoidance and some positive course experience where the eventual winner is likely to have an extra touch of class about him.
All things considered, my selections are as follows:
Let’s make my position on this year’s BMW PGA Championship very clear: if Viktor Hovland plays anywhere near as well this week as he did at East Lake on his last start when taking the Tour Championship and FedEx Cup in one fell swoop, then it will take a monumental performance to beat him.
One could excuse the Norwegian for taking his foot off the pedal after banking over $20m from his latest exploits, and in a normal year perhaps he would. However with the Ryder Cup just two weeks away and the entire European team here in attendance, I suspect he – like the other 11 – will be focussed on getting their games as sharp as is humanly possible.
Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm are priced at an almost identical point this week, yet Rory’s record here at Wentworth is a little hit and miss with a win and two runner-up finishes balanced by 4 missed cuts, whereas Rahm’s 3 efforts in the Playoffs were a little underwhelming, finishing 37th, 31st and 21st after an impressive enough effort at The Open.
Rahm’s record here of two runner-up finishes from two attempts suggests he’ll go close of course, and Rory was in the conversation until the business end of proceedings last week at the K Club, but for me the more likely winner is Hovland and he deserves to be backed accordingly.
61 to close out the BMW Championship was just the precursor to an outstanding performance at East Lake where only Xander Schauffele could stay with the 25 year-old in terms of 72-hole scoring, and nobody could beat his performance in terms of Driving Accuracy, GIR, Scrambling, SG Off the Tee and SG Tee to Green. That field-leading performance for Scrambling is also testament to the work he’s been putting in off the course and he’s increasingly looking like the complete package nowadays.
11th, 49th and 5th here at Wentworth, Viktor looked every inch the winner here 12 months ago as he entered the final round in the lead, however his long game let him down as he started losing shots to the left. 12 months on and with his game at the peak of its powers the last time we saw him, I’m expecting him to put things right this time around. RESULT: 5th
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Billy Horschel 2pts EW 30/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365
As frustrating as it was to see Billy Horschel drop from an early tie for the lead on Sunday in Ireland to virtual oblivion by the end of the day, his play over the first 63 holes was encouraging enough for consideration this week regardless.
The 7-time PGA Tour winner talked about letting factors outside of his control get to him on the back 9 at the K Club with 43 strokes ultimately being the outcome, however he vowed on Instagram to put that behind him and learn from the experience and I suspect he’ll do just that.
In fairness to the 36 year-old, his Irish Open effort was his first competitive action for a month having missed out on the PGA Tour PlayOffs despite closing efforts of 13th at the 3M Open and 4th at the Wyndham Championship, and it’s that latter effort which convinces me that he can find himself in the mix once again this week.
Billy’s record at the Wyndham is excellent and his effort last month made it 4 top-6 finishes there in his last 7 attempts, so to many a golf observer his latest effort at Sedgefield didn’t come as a surprise. With Wentworth form of 4/1/9 from his 3 attempts, nor should another contending performance surprise this week either and with his price hardly shifting week-on-week despite showing significant promise, I’m happy to stick with the Florida native. RESULT: T18
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Alexander Bjork 1pt EW 66/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet
3 of the last 5 winners here at Wentworth missed the cut on their previous start and a rare weekend off for Alexander Bjork in Ireland may well given him the time and rest he needs to enable another attempt to add to his one and only title at DP World Tour level.
In truth a weekend off was probably overdue and probably very much needed. 2nd at Crans on his previous start was another near miss in a season that had seen him play 4 rounds in every single event, notching a further 7 top-10 finishes in a run of consistency that’s seen him work his way up to 6th in the Race to Dubai and back inside the OWGR top 100 after previously peaking at 59th back in 2018.
SG Approach is the cornerstone of his game and the key to his consistency this year, ranking 1st on Tour on that count, and at 15th for SG Tee to Green he also has the game to compete here at Wentworth given what we’ve seen from our most recent winners. 1st on Tour for Scrambling completes the set statistically when it comes to matching him to this week’s test, as short-game prowess is never a bad attribute around these parts.
6 attempts here at the West Course have produced 4 paid weekends and a best finish of 14th on debut back in 2017 when he marked our card with a closing round of 66. In the overall form that he’s in right now, I can see a big personal best coming this week. RESULT: T18
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Now that the dust has settled on Ryder Cup qualification and all the media talk focus this week will undoubtedly be on the 12 men in attendance, seeing one of those players who fell by the wayside such as Victor Perez put in a bold performance wouldn’t surprise me one iota.
The Frenchman got off to a perfect start to his 2023 campaign, beating a Rolex Series field in Abu Dhabi a week after impressing at the Hero Cup with Luke Donald observing him and a number of other hopefuls, however that’s pretty much where the story ends as he dropped off the pace as the season progressed, ultimately finishing 6th in the Ryder Cup European points list and 15th overall.
That’s not to say the rest of 2023 was a complete disaster though. 9th at the Marco Simone GC in May was followed by a creditable 12th at the US PGA Championship a fortnight later, however when push came to shove he just couldn’t progress any further.
Covid curtailed his ISPS World Invitational effort as the qualification period approached its climax before a solid 11th in Prague gave him a squeak at Crans-sur-Sierre, however that quirky layout has never been his favourite and a missed cut ended his hopes once and for all.
A week’s rest and recuperation may well have done him some good ahead of a return to Wentworth where he was the closest challenger to an outstanding Tyrrell Hatton here on debut back in 2020. 2 cuts made here from the subsequent 2 efforts is positive if not as impressive as that initial effort, and with the pressure now well and truly off I wouldn’t be surprised to see him feature heavily. RESULT: MC
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Francesco Molinari 1pt EW 175/1 (8EW, 1/5) with Boylesports
Given the absurdly long price about Francesco Molinari this week, I’ll happily take a chance that the brief show of form that we saw at the Czech Masters can prove to be more than a flash in the pan.
Perhaps the price isn’t that absurd when you consider that the 40 year-old has missed 11 of 17 cuts in 2023 which put paid to any dream of rekindling the Moliwood partnership of Le Golf National that was so effective in beating the Americans, and Fran will have to make do with acting as one of Luke Donald’s vice captains in a fortnight’s time as a result.
Yet for all his woes this year, 5th in Abu Dhabi to start 2023 showed some real promise that couldn’t be built upon and 14th at Bay Hill at designated event level was also a positive outing on Arnold Palmer’s classical track over in Florida. Perhaps when everything clicks there’s still hope.
Having played most of the year in the US, a return to regular DP World Tour action in Prague saw him flirt with contention after middle rounds of 67, ultimately finishing in a tie for 31st after a flat Sunday, and he returns this week to a Wentworth track which ultimately suits much better than that bomber’s paradise. A win in 2018 built on a runner-up finish the year before, and 5 further top-10 finishes around these parts – including here 12 months ago – suggests that he could outperform his odds this week and threaten an each-way return. RESULT: MC
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