Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Genesis Scottish Open Tips 2025

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The build-up to the Open Championship kicks off in earnest this week in a high-class affair featuring 8 of the world’s top 10 players and 32 of the top 50 here at Renaissance Club in Scotland.

As per last year, this is a PGA Tour/DP World Tour co-sanctioned affair with roughly half the field allocated to both Tours and a smattering of invites and KPGA players completing the field. A Rolex Series event in terms of its stature, the $9m prize fund and 8,000 Race to Dubai ranking points will certainly grab the attention of all involved.

In a change to his pre-Open schedule from last year, OWGR number 1 Scottie Scheffler has opted to warm up for next week’s Open Championship here in Scotland, and he heads the betting at a best price of 9/2 at the time of writing. Rory McIlroy is also here at Renaissance and he ranks as a 17/2 shot, with Tommy Fleetwood closest to the leading pair at around 20/1.

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Course Overview. The Renaissance Club is this week’s host course for the seventh year running, which gives us the last six years worth of renewals to review as a starting point.

Despite sitting on Scotland’s ‘Golf Coast’ in the stretch of land between Muirfield and Archerfield Links, the Renaissance Club isn’t an historic links track – instead it was manufactured from an old pine forest and opened in 2008.

Aesthetically it looks linksy on a stretch of land that’s famous for its links tracks and built to a brief to make it appear like it had been there for a century, however for the purists it’s more ‘links-like’ than pure links. Trees and an old wall complicate matters a little in that respect, balanced with 3 relatively new holes which flank the shore and typical links features such as deep bunkering, gorse and thick rough.

The par 70 is listed as playing 7,237 yards for this week’s test, as it was last year, although that’s from the back tees largely and the DP World Tour have the flexibility to keep the yardage fluid so it remains to be seen how it sets up each day. 3 par-5s and 5 par-3s explains the par of 70.

Greens are fescue-based, similar to those used at Castle Stuart in this event in the relatively recent past, as well as at Royal Birkdale for the 2017 Open Championship.

scottish open tips

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Scottish Open that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event.

As noted above, Renaissance Club hosted this event for the first time in 2019: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats | SG Stats.

Predictor Model. Our regular published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available. Our new predictor model is available here if you prefer.

Winners & Prices. 2024: Robert Macintyre, 55/1; 2023: Rory McIlroy, 8/1; 2022: Xander Schauffele, 20/1; 2021: Minwoo Lee, 200/1; 2020: Aaron Rai, 50/1; 2019: Bernd Wiesberger, 40/1; 2018: Brandon Stone, 400/1; 2017: Rafa Cabrera-Bello, 50/1; 2016: Alex Noren, 50/1; 2015: Rickie Fowler, 22/1; 2014: Justin Rose, 14/1; 2013: Phil Mickelson, 22/1; 2012: Jeev Milkha Singh, 100/1; 2011: Luke Donald, 10/1; 2010: Edoardo Molinari, 70/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

In a break from what is often the norm when the Tour visits Scotland, dry and sunny conditions will greet the players on Thursday and look set to continue for the duration of the tournament. Temperatures up to 23 Centigrade (73 Fahrenheit) will feel particularly warm in the sunshine, and players and spectators alike will need to apply plenty of factor 50 sun cream.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the winners here at the Renaissance Club gives a little more insight into what’s required to succeed on this track:

  • 2024, Robert Macintyre (-18). 308 yards (26th), 65.4% fairways (10th), 77.8% greens in regulation (17th), 68.8% scrambling (25th), 1.68 putts per GIR (7th)
  • 2023, Rory McIlroy (-15). 331 yards (1st), 51.9% fairways (37th), 69.4% greens in regulation (28th), 63.6% scrambling (33rd), 1.63 putts per GIR (2nd)
  • 2022, Xander Schauffele (-7). 309 yards (16th), 48.1% fairways (35th), 70.9% greens in regulation (5th), 42.9% scrambling (70th), 1.69 putts per GIR (6th)
  • 2021, Minwoo Lee (-18). 305 yards (16th), 50% fairways (64th), 76.4% greens in regulation (27th), 64.7% scrambling (45th), 1.66 putts per GIR (3rd).
  • 2020, Aaron Rai (-11). 285 yards (30th), 59.6% fairways (16th), 77.8% greens in regulation (4th), 81.3% scrambling (4th), 1.79 putts per GIR (29th).
  • 2019, Bernd Wiesberger (-22). 302 yards (16th), 63.5% fairways (30th), 81.9% greens in regulation (23rd), 53.8% scrambling (59th), 1.65 putts per GIR (6th).

In easier conditions in 2019 and 2021, hitting greens wasn’t remotely an issue – you have to go all the way down to Kurt Kitayama in 43rd place before finding a player who failed to find 70% of GIR in 2019; similarly in 2021 the top 25 were all above that level – and players hitting 80% or more was commonplace both years. Last year was fairly similar too with a winning score of -18 for Bob Macintyre and his 77.8% GIR only good enough for 17th on that metric.

Although 2023 was fairly challenging, 2020 was played in tougher conditions with lower temperatures, wind and rain at various points, leading to a much higher winning total. 2022 featured wind too, with Xander Schauffele’s eventual winning score of 7-under proving once again that exposed courses play as tough or as easy as the conditions dictate.

Given the large, easy to hit greens here, proximity is of importance for setting up birdie opportunities, as of course is having a putter warm enough to convert at a regular rate in normal conditions.

Put into context, Wiesberger made a massive 30 birdies in 2019 with the bulk of the damage being done on the par-5s (13-under for the week from a 22-under winning total); likewise Minwoo Lee made 25 birdies and an eagle, and the top 6 finishers in 2021 were a collective 58-under for the long holes over the course of the week.

2022 was different given the severity of the scoring conditions, but Schauffele was still amongst the best par-5 performers on the week, shooting 8-under on the long holes over the course of the 4 days. 8-under was the par-5 mark for Rory McIlroy in 2023 which was beaten by just one player in the field, and although Macintyre was only -6 for the long holes last year, Adam Scott and Romain Langasque who finished 2nd and 3rd were 10- and 12-under par for the par-5s respectively.

Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, SG Tee to Green is the most common success factor from the 6 renewals we have data recorded for here, with each of our winners ranking inside the top 4 on that metric:

  • 2024, Robert Macintyre: T: 7th; A: 8th; T2G: 4th; ATG: 33rd; P: 18th
  • 2023, Rory McIlroy: T: 3rd; A: 4th; T2G: 1st; ATG: 38th; P: 29th
  • 2022, Xander Schauffele: T: 16th; A: 7th; T2G: 1st; ATG: 15th; P: 27th
  • 2021, Minwoo Lee: T: 41st; A: 21st; T2G: 4th; ATG: 2nd; P: 17th
  • 2020, Aaron Rai: T: 14th; A: 23rd, T2G: 2nd, ATG: 8th; P: 23rd
  • 2019, Bernd Wiesberger: T: 27th; A: 3rd, T2G: 3rd, ATG: 44th; P: 21st

Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.

In the easiest of the 6 years back in 2019, SG Approach and SG Tee to Green were dominant factors for the top performers, whereas SG Around the Green was far more prominent in 2020’s tougher renewal, alongside SG Tee to Green again.

SG Putting was more prevalent in 2021, again combined with SG Tee to Green, whereas 2022 and 2023 saw Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy produce field-leading performances from Tee to Green. Robert Macintyre was a little more balanced last year, producing SG positive performances in every category, albeit with SG T2G still the standout number.

Incoming Form: Current form students wouldn’t have taken long to dismiss the chance of Brandon Stone at Gullane back in 2018 with the South African having failed to break the top-60 on any of his previous 7 starts. 400/1 was the reward for punters who managed to overlook his recent finishes.

Prior to that, recent form for all winners of this event since 2010 listed below had been good enough to shortlist them at least, with each Scottish Open champion in that time having recorded a minimum of one top-10 finish in their last 4 starts. In fact you can extend that trend right back to 2002 with the marginal exception of 2004 winner Thomas Levet, however he had finished 8th at Wentworth 5 starts prior and 2nd in Italy a month before that.

2019 and 2020 winners of the Scottish Open, Rai and Wiesberger – both here at Renaissance – had finished as runner-up the week before at the Irish Open, whereas Minwoo Lee had produced a solid top-20 performance at Mount Juliet the weekend prior.

2022 winner Xander Schauffele was in hot form arriving here, having won the Travelers Championship on the PGA Tour a little over a week before making it back-to-back successes, and 2023 winner Rory McIlroy arrived off the back of five straight top-10 finishes, including 2nd at the US Open. Last year’s winner Robert Macintyre had won the Canadian Open the previous month, having finished 8th at the US PGA Championship a fortnight before that:

  • 2024, Robert Macintyre: 32/MC/33/MC/8/MC/13/8/MC/1/MC/16/MC
  • 2023, Rory McIlroy: 32/29/2/MC/3/MC/47/7/7/9/2/7
  • 2022, Xander Schauffele: 12/35/MC/5/13/18/14/1
  • 2021, Minwoo Lee: MC/MC/28/21/52/MC/42/17
  • 2020, Aaron Rai: MC/21/10/44/31/44/15/2
  • 2019, Bernd Wiesberger: 23/14/70/1/8/76/16/2
  • 2018, Brandon Stone: 22/MC/MC/60/65/MC/MC/69
  • 2017, Rafa Cabrera-Bello: MC/24/4/MC/4/42/26/MC
  • 2016, Alex Noren: 50/6/9/MC/43/12/MC/8
  • 2015, Rickie Fowler: 71/12/MC/9/1/30/MC/MC
  • 2014, Justin Rose: 14/8/5/4/25/MC/12/1
  • 2013, Phil Mickelson: MC/16/54/3/MC/2/2/MC
  • 2012, JM Singh: 25/32/27/MC/7/MC/30/46
  • 2011, Luke Donald: 4/2/8/4/2/1/7/45
  • 2010, Edoardo Molinari: MC/17/13/MC/36/4/47/42

Event Form: The victories of Bernd Wiesberger, Brandon Stone and Rafa Cabrera-Bello flummoxed event form students with little to work with, before Aaron Rai’s win in 2020 restored some kind of order. Despite this event hopping about in terms of venue, the 6 Scottish Open winners prior to Rafa had also recorded at least one top-10 finish in this event before lifting the trophy.

The trend stops at Edoardo Molinari in 2010, however there may be something positive in terms of experience of playing in similar conditions with similar grasses in the past – indeed the Italian had finished runner-up on his last start on Scottish soil on the Challenge Tour the previous year; with regards Cabrera-Bello, he’d produced a 4th place finish at the Dunhill Links over the years and a further top-10 at Gleneagles. Even Stone, with his poor incoming form, had finished 15th at the Dunhill Links on his previous start in Scotland.

Aaron Rai had finished 9th at Gullane on his Scottish Open debut to rekindle the top-10 stat, however his previous attempt at Renaissance had ended in a missed cut. 2021 winner Minwoo Lee had recorded a 30th place finish on debut here in 2020, opening with a 66 and closing with a 69, to at least give some hint that he’d enjoy the course, whereas Xander built on his 10th place finish on debut before winning here in 2022.

Rory McIlroy’s record at the Scottish Open was fairly ordinary for a player of his quality prior to his 2023 victory, although perhaps that was more down to his preparation strategy for the Open Championship rather than anything more sinister given that his wider record in Scotland is pretty strong.

Finally, last year Robert Macintyre made up for his narrow defeat to Rory McIlroy here 12 months earlier in what was an emotional and hugely popular win:

  • 2024, Robert Macintyre: MC/14/18/MC/2
  • 2023, Rory McIlroy: MC/19/46/14/MC/34/MC
  • 2022, Xander Schauffele: 10
  • 2021, Minwoo Lee: 30
  • 2020, Aaron Rai: 9/MC
  • 2019, Bernd Wiesberger: MC/MC/31/41/51
  • 2018, Brandon Stone: MC
  • 2017, Rafa Cabrera-Bello: MC/MC/MC/47/MC/27/41/21
  • 2016, Alex Noren: MC/38/67/67/MC/3/MC
  • 2015, Rickie Fowler: 8
  • 2014, Justin Rose: 37/5/MC/MC/MC/14
  • 2013, Phil Mickelson: 35/MC/44/2/38/MC/58/16
  • 2012, JM Singh: 37/MC/MC/43/9/MC/49/42
  • 2011, Luke Donald: 5/2/4
  • 2010, Edoardo Molinari: 54/MC

In total then, 13 of the past 14 Scottish Open champions had recorded a top 30 finish or thereabouts in this event prior to their victory, and we have to go all the way back to Tom Lehman’s victory at Loch Lomond in 1997 before finding a debutant who’s won at this event in its various guises and locations.

My Final Genesis Scottish Open Tips For 2025 Are As Follows:

Collin Morikawa 3pts EW 22/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes

With both Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy in attendance this week, there’s always a risk that everyone else is playing for the lesser prizes and the same goes for punters who choose to avoid the two market leaders.

Scottie has won three of his last six starts and even with nothing like his best game finished inside the top 7 at both the US Open and Travelers Championship, plus he finished third here in 2023 when he last used Renaissance as his Open Championship warm-up event.

In comparison, Rory has also won three times this season, although nothing since The Masters as he’s tried to find the necessary motivation levels after completing his personal grand slam. Rory though has previous of winning before a Major and if anything can get his juices flowing it should be the thought of arriving on home soil next week in peak form.

My gut feel is that both players will have enough of an eye on next week’s main event for the door to sit ajar for a different winner, and if that’s to be the case then perhaps Collin Morikawa can slip through and take this title.

Having racked up five wins and two Majors in quick succession between 2019 and 2021, the silverware has all but dried up for the American with the exception of the ZOZO Championship in 2023. Chances have come and gone since with three runner-up finishes and five further top-5s, and I get the feeling that the 28 year-old would gladly take a Scottish Open title rather than use this as a loosener for next week.

Since finishing 8th at the Rocket Classic on his last start a little over a week ago, Morikawa has temporarily employed the services of the vastly experienced Billy Foster to carry his bag for this week and next, and although it remains to be seen how that pairing works in practice, the simple act of making this positive change may act as a reset and a win could follow. Frankly I would not be remotely surprised should that be the case.

71st then a missed cut from his first two attempts here at Renaissance, Collin finally got his head around the course 12 months ago, shooting 4 rounds in the 60s and contending throughout before eventually finishing 4th. 12 months on and his long game is if anything in better shape heading into this week, and anything the right side of SG positive with the putter could see him seriously contend for the title.

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Matt Fitzpatrick 2pts EW 35/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes

To continue the Billy Foster theme, I’m also backing his former employer Matt Fitzpatrick here this week. Strange things happen in golf and seeing Fitzpatrick and Morikawa battle it out on Sunday would be a fascinating watch and of course a pretty promising position for this week’s staking plan.

After working together since 2019, the pair parted as Fitzpatrick looked to find the answer to a spell of disappointing form that saw him register just two top-5 finishes on the PGA Tour in 2024 and ultimately slip from 8th in the OWGR at the end of 2023 to as low as 85th in May of this year.

Since missing the cut alongside brother Alex at the Zurich Classic, there have been definite signs of improvement. 23rd at the Truist Championship saw his best SG Around the Green performance for nearly 2 years, and he took that momentum into the US PGA Championship the following week where he finished 8th overall, ranking 5th for SG Approach. 38th at the US Open was disappointing in all but on the greens where he topped the field for SG Putting, and he followed that up with 17th at the Travelers Championship and 8th at the Rocket Classic to show positive progression heading into this week.

That most recent effort needs some further study as he was excellent from tee-to-green, topping that SG metric on the week, whilst also rankings inside the top 10 for SG Off the Tee, Approach and Around the Green, only to be let down by his putting. That element did improve on the Sunday though and there’s enough hope that he can piece it all together here this week to seriously contend.

Six attempts here at Renaissance have seen Matt make the weekend five times with best finishes of 6th in 2022 and 2nd the year before. Interestingly he topped the field for SG Putting on that best effort and even last year ranked 5th on that measure when finishing 39th, offering some hope that he can find some form on the greens this week.

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Ryan Fox 1pt EW 60/1 (6EW, 1/5) with Unibet

2025 has been a spectacular year so far for Ryan Fox and he heads back across the Atlantic this week with not one but two PGA Tour titles to his name.

A play-off victory in May’s Myrtle Beach Classic was followed by another success in extra holes at the RBC Canadian Open where he played one of the shots of his life to ultimately beat Sam Burns on the fourth additional hole. The eagle-eyed amongst you may have noticed that both wins came in the week immediately before a Major Championship, and it’s not inconceivable that the Kiwi completes a hat-trick of pre-Major successes here this week.

Always one that I used to look out for when it came to links golf when he plied his trade on the DP World Tour due to his ability to fly the ball low in windy conditions, his first three wins at that level came in Perth on a wind-affected track just in from the coast, the coastal Ras Al Khaimah Classic, and of course at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. His fourth and most recent victory came at Rolex Series level at the BMW PGA Championship and despite the quality of opposition here this week, I can’t see the world number 29 being overawed.

19th at the US Open and 17th at the Travelers Championship since his most recent win, Ryan returns to a Renaissance track where he has a best finish of 12th in 2023 where he putted the best of his six visits here. Perhaps crucially he arrives here this week with the flat stick in rude health, having ranked 7th and 4th for SG Putting on his last two outings.

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Haotong Li 1pt EW 140/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Finally I’ll take a speculative punt on Haotong Li who’s the sort of streaky, unpredictable player who could find himself on the first page of the leaderboard at a long price.

Never the straightest from off the tee, a course like Renaissance where hitting less than half of fairways isn’t as fatal as many other tracks gives a player like Li a better chance than his odds imply, and there’s enough of a suggestion from his 21st place finish here last year that the course suits his eye. 10th for Driving Accuracy and 3rd for GIR here 12 months ago was way ahead of his general performance levels at the time and he returns here this year with his game in a good place.

Victory at this year’s Qatar Masters on a Doha track that’s always a good barometer for links golf was the Chinese star’s fourth victory on Tour, and subsequent finishes of 9th in Singapore, 4th in China and Belgium, and 2nd in Turkey have pushed the 29 year-old up to 7th on the Race to Dubai and in with a huge chance of securing PGA Tour playing rights for next season.

3rd at Royal Birkdale back in 2017 is the single biggest piece of form on Li’s CV when it comes to links golf, and he followed that up with 5th at the following year’s Alfred Dunhill Links Championship where he recovered from an opening round of 75 to catapult himself to a career-best finish on Scottish soil.

14th here at Renaissance in 2020 is the best of an erratic bunch of performances which is ultimately what you get with him, however having not missed a cut all year and arriving here with a solid 38th place effort in Germany last week after a month off, perhaps we’ll see Haotong in competitive mood this week in Scotland.

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:35BST 7.7.25 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.