Paul Williams

Paul Williams' Joburg Open Tips 2026

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The final leg of our African adventure takes us to Johannesburg for the Joburg Open, another event co-sanctioned between the DP World Tour and the Sunshine Tour with a fair representation from both sides.

Patrick Reed continues his support for the Tour ahead of his extremely likely return to State-side action next year, and he heads the betting this week at a general 11/1 from Jayden Schaper who’s a point longer with some bookmakers. Angel Ayora adopts his now familiar position in the market at around 12/1-14/1, with Hennie du Plessis and the star of the last fortnight Casey Jarvis following on behind the leading trio.

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Course Overview. Houghton Golf Club in Johannesburg is a 7,241 yard par 70 that plays significantly shorter due to its altitude in the South African Highveld.

Dating back to the 1920s, Jack Nicklaus redesigned this parkland track in 2009 to bring it up to modern day standards.

With just two par 5s on the course, the players need to make the bulk of their score on the par 4s; however despite 3 of the holes measuring over 500 yards, the altitude brings them down to size and instead the 4 sub-400 par 4s – 3 of which are on the back 9 – present good scoring opportunities for the brave or those with a strong wedge game. Greens are undulating Bentgrass and in lieu of any adverse weather the putting surfaces provide the course with at least a little protection.

Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Joburg Open that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats.

Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Tournament Winners. 2025: Calum Hill, 80/1; 2023: Dean Burmester; 2022: Dan Bradbury; 2021: Thriston Lawrence; 2020: JB Hansen; 40/1; 2017 (Dec): Shubhankar Sharma, 66/1; 2017 (Feb): Darren Fichardt, 90/1; 2016: Haydn Porteous, 150/1; 2015: Andy Sullivan, 16/1; 2014: George Coetzee, 11/1; 2013: Richard Sterne, 18/1; 2012: Branden Grace, 35/1; 2011: Charl Schwartzel, 4/1; 2010: Charl Schwartzel, 9/1.

Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Johannesburg is here.

It could be a stop-start tournament this week with a significant threat of thundery showers on Friday and Saturday in particular. Winds will be generally light aside from when the showers arrive and temperatures will reach the low 70s Fahrenheit.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Stats from the last 3 Joburg Opens held here give us a little insight into the type of player who might succeed at Houghton:

  • 2025, Calum Hill (-14). 326 yards (11th), 69.6% fairways (8th), 76.4% greens in regulation (14th), 58.8% scrambling (24th), 1.73 putts per GIR (19th)
  • 2023, Dean Burmester (-18). 357 yards (4th), 62.5% fairways (19th), 79.2% greens in regulation (6th), 73.3% scrambling (5th), 1.70 putts per GIR (7th)
  • 2022, Dan Bradbury (-21). 330 yards (18th), 77.8% greens in regulation (12th), 50% scrambling (31st), 1.64 putts per GIR (5th)

The winning formula was similar for each of our victors in that hitting close to 80% of greens and producing a decent enough putting week when the putting surfaces were found was key.

Incoming Form: With three consecutive missed cuts, the form of Calum Hill was nothing to write home about ahead of his win here at Houghton last year, however 17th at the Dubai Desert Classic – where he sat in 6th place after 54 holes – was a decent performance at a considerably higher level.

Dean Burmester had dropped from the LIV circuit in 2023 where he’d been recording some solid finishes including 17th on his last start in Jeddah, where he closed with rounds of 65/67. Before that Dan Bradbury was only playing in his sixth professional event before winning here at Houghton, however 13th on his previous outing at the Spanish Open had signalled some potential.

In fact the past five winners of this event had all recorded a top 20 finish on one of their previous four starts, and of the past 13 winners only Haydn Porteous in 2016 and Calum Hill arrived here having missed the cut on their last outing:

  • Calum Hill: 30/MC/MC/18/28/MC/65/55/17/MC/MC/MC
  • Dean Burmester: 8/54/15/14/17/7/3/16/7/18/WD/17
  • Dan Bradbury: MC/36/47/17/13
  • Thriston Lawrence: MC/MC/MC/MC/6/20/18/MC/MC/MC/MC/6
  • Shubhankar Sharma: 66/MC/26/24/MC/MC/MC/21/24/18/10/27
  • Darren Fichardt: MC/16/MC/MC/31/MC/26/MC/66/32/48/53
  • Haydn Porteous: 5/MC/5/MC/6/28/35/15/17/36/MC/MC
  • Andy Sullivan: 17/51/47/67/4/21/MC/1/57/19/4/47
  • George Coetzee: 56/71/MC/57/74/12/32/20/MC/MC/4/5
  • Richard Sterne: 39/41/8/46/MC/MC/50/20/51/91/7/2
  • Branden Grace: MC/13/33/MC/MC/MC/18/MC/30/MC/9/14
  • Charl Schwartzel: 58/18/5/57/9/16/MC/MC/21/2/4/4
  • Charl Schwartzel: 6/48/MC/23/6/40/5/11/53/2/26/1

Event Form: Given that this event has moved venues a number of times it’s not surprising to see that Joburg Open form is very mixed from our recent winners:

  • Calum Hill: Debut
  • Dean Burmester: MC/34/69/13/31/11/19/18/43
  • Dan Bradbury: Debut
  • Thriston Lawrence: 72/MC
  • Shubhankar Sharma: Debut
  • Darren Fichardt: 47/52/30/MC/46/25/MC/18/53
  • Haydn Porteous: 24
  • Andy Sullivan: MC/60/5
  • George Coetzee: MC/MC/7/14/3
  • Richard Sterne: 17/1/12/44/60/MC
  • Branden Grace: 63/MC/51/13
  • Charl Schwartzel: 19/14/4/1
  • Charl Schwartzel: 19/14/4

An altitude-shortened, soft golf course that’s being offered no protection by the wind should lead to another low-scoring event, despite the course only featuring 2 par 5s.

My final Joburg Open tips are as follows:

Francesco Laporta 2pts EW 20/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes

The top half dozen in the market contains three players who have won twice already this season and have likely each wrapped up a PGA Tour card for next season, and another three players all seeking their maiden DP World Tour title in the shape of Angel Ayora, Hennie du Plessis and Francesco Laporta – and it’s the Italian that may be the best bet this week.

Many punters may baulk at the price on offer about the 35 year-old who’s never moved beyond his three Challenge Tour titles in terms of silverware, however I wonder if there’s extra incentive for him to grab a victory with his friend and compatriot Andrea Pavan recovering in hospital following last week’s freak elevator accident.

Having finished 4th in Kenya with impressive rounds of 66/64/65/65, Laporta led to halfway at last week’s South African Open whilst juggling visits to the hospital to see his injured countryman, eventually finishing 2nd behind Casey Jarvis. The weekend wasn’t as fluent as the opening two days, however with Pavan’s prognosis proving more positive, perhaps he’ll relax and bring home this week’s trophy to dedicate to his friend.

Top form has tended to come in patches for Francesco over the years – he won twice in the space of three weeks in 2019 on the Challenge Tour – and perhaps he’ll cap this current surge in performance levels with a maiden title.

There’s also enough in his recent record to suggest that this week’s test should suit. 19th here last year where only a Saturday 73 prevented him from being far closer to the lead, he also finished 6th at the end of 2024 at the altitude of Sun City in decent company at that year’s Nedbank. RESULT: MC

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Daniel van Tonder 1.5pts EW 35/1 (8EW, 1/5) with BetFred

Of the local contingent, Daniel van Tonder interests me most.

At the age of 34, the South African has been on something of a rollercoaster in terms of his playing status, winning 12 times on the Sunshine Tour including the South African open in 2021 when it dropped off the DP World Tour schedule in the Covid aftermath. Victory at the 2021 Kenya Savannah Classic is his only success at this level, however the altitude of Nairobi makes it of some relevance to this week’s task on another short, tree-lined parkland test.

Having dropped back down a level after losing his DP World Tour card, van Tonder had a chance to jump straight back to the top level last year having won the SDC Open and MyGolfLife Open events in back-to-back weeks at co-sanctioned Challenge Tour level, however a third title eluded him and he had to wait until this season to regain his playing rights.

6th last week at Stellenbosch in a very similar field to this was encouraging after an opening round of 72 threatened to see him miss the cut. Rounds of 68/64/68 recovered his position and he returns to Houghton having finished 3rd here in 2022 and 5th last year. RESULT: T6

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Jacob Skov Olesen 1.5pts EW 40/1 (8EW, 1/5) with BetFred

A little further down the field, I’m also backing Jacob Skov Olesen who looks like a winner-in-waiting at this level.

Following a sparkling amateur career, the talented Dane turned professional in 2024 despite having invites to both The Masters and the US Open in his back pocket had he remained as an amateur, such is his confidence in his abilities. A tie for the first round lead at Royal Portrush last year thrust him into the Open Championship limelight, and although he couldn’t maintain his position there was enough to suggest he could be winning something soon at regular DP World Tour level.

3rd at the Nexo Championship, 8th at the Irish Open and 5th at the Dunhill Links meant that the 26 year-old made it all the way through to the Earth Course last November where he finished a creditable 11th in far stronger company than this.

3rd at Doha last month was followed by 5th at the Kenya Open where he was Strokes Gained positive in every category, gaining over nine strokes on the week from Tee to Green. 63rd last week after a slow start has kept a lid on his price, however there was enough to like from his 7th place finish here last year on Houghton GC debut to suggest that he could bounce back to contending form here this week. RESULT: T36

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Haydn Porteous 1pt EW 150/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Ladbrokes

Finally I’ll take a chance on a DP World Tour player from the relatively recent past, Haydn Porteous, who can use this event as a springboard back to the top level having been plying his trade on the Sunshine Tour and Big Easy Tour of late.

The Johannesburg native got his breakthrough title at co-sanctioned level in this very event back in 2016 when it was played at the Royal Johannesburg & Kensington, a golf club to which he is still attached to. Altitude golf doesn’t concern the 31 year-old, an assertion he reinforced the following year when winning the Czech Masers while carrying our money on the outskirts of Prague, albeit not at the same elevation as the Highveld here but certainly with some adjustment required.

The intervening years have been tough for Haydn though, with a loss of form ultimately seeing him dip down to Challenge Tour, Sunshine Tour, and eventually Big Easy Tour level where he finally found his game. Five top-10 finishes in eight starts on the South African second tier was followed by victory at the Vodacom Origins – Gowrie Farm event on the Sunshine Tour last September, and he’s remained in largely positive form since then.

Runner-up at the Cell-C Challenge to start his 2026 campaign was followed by some less impressive outings, however 6th last week at the South African Open was noteworthy, and in this relatively weak field – once you get past the market leaders -perhaps he can build on that momentum with a similar finish here this week. RESULT: MC

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Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:15GMT 2.3.26 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.