Steve Bamford

Steve Bamford's Open Championship Longshots 2021

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With the leading bookmakers all keen to get your business, the 2021 Open Championship at Royal St Georges makes for an exciting punting proposition this week.

With a record-breaking 12 places each way available for the first time ever with both Boylesports and Paddy Power, and the forecast looking decidedly gnarly, finding a value outsider is a tactic that’s potentially packed full of profit this week.

With northerly and north-easterly winds of anything up to 25-30 mph forecast across the opening 3 days, expect a very tough test this week. Some players simply can’t handle links-style golf where the ability to grind is paramount.

In reality this is probably the most likely of all Majors to produce a long-priced, even 3-figure winner, as per Louis Oosthuizen in 2010, Darren Clarke here in 2011 and Zach Johnson in 2015.

The last few years have produced the following outsiders, each of whom finished in the top 7:

  • 2019: Tony Finau (80/1 3rd); Lee Westwood (110/1 4th); Tyrrell Hatton (90/1 6th); Robert MacIntyre (200/1 6th);  Danny Willett (125/1 6th); Patrick Reed (90/1 10th).
  • 2018: Xander Schauffele (110/1 2nd); Kevin Kisner (300/1 2nd); Kevin Chappell (250/1, 6th); Eddie Pepperell (175/1 6th).
  • 2017: Hao-tong Li (300/1 3rd).
  • 2016: J.B. Holmes (200/1 3rd), Steve Stricker (250/1 4th), Tyrrell Hatton (175/1 5th)
  • 2015: Zach Johnson (110/1 Winner); Marc Leishman (250/1 2nd); Danny Willet (125/1 6th); Jordan Niebrugge (1000/1 6th).
  • 2014: Marc Leishman (150/1 5th); Edoardo Molinari (200/1 7th).
  • 2013: Hideki Matsuyama (250/1 6th).
  • 2012: Brandt Snedeker (175/1 3rd).
  • 2011: Darren Clarke (200/1 – Winner); Thomas Bjorn (200/1); Chad Campbell (250/1); Anthony Kim (175/1) – all finished 5th.
  • 2010: Louis Oosthuizen (250/1 – Winner); Henrik Stenson (100/1 3rd); Nick Watney (125/1) & Robert Rock (300/1) – both finished 7th.
  • 2009: Stewart Cink (175/1 – Winner); Tom Watson (750/1 2nd); Chris Wood (500/1 3rd).

boylesports

boylesports 12 Places Each-Way at the 2021 Open Championship with Boylesports

From an additional places offered on golf perspective, Boylesports are the Number 1 bookmaker in 2021 by a country mile – see our analysis available here  – and have launched a never seen before, record-breaking 12 places each-way 1/6 odds proposition for The Open.

If you haven’t already got a Boylesports account then new UK customers, 18+, signing-up via Golf Betting System, can access a generous Bet £10, Get £30 of Free Bets Sign-up Offer. There’s also a strong specific Ireland offer – see below:

✅ Bet £10 Get £30 for new mobile customers using this qualifying link
✅ Regularly extending full-field PGA Tour events to 8 or 10 places each-way in 2021
✅ Offered 12 places each-way 1/6 odds at the 2021 Open Championship for the first time ever

Boylesports UK New Customer Offer: New UK customers (Excluding NI) only. Mobile exclusive. Min stake £10. Min odds Evs. Free bet applied on 1st settlement of any qualifying bet. 30 days to qualify. Free bets expire in 7 days. Cashed out/Free Bets won’t apply. Payment method restrictions. 1 Free Bet offer per customer, household & IP Address only. 18+. T&Cs apply. #Ad

✅ Bet €10 get €40 in bonuses for new Irish customers using this qualifying link
✅ Regularly extending full-field PGA Tour events to 8 places each-way in 2021
✅ Offered 10 places each-way 1/5 odds at the 2020 PGA Championship, US Open & Masters

New Customer Offer. €/£40 in free bets credited as €/£30 in sports bets & a €/£10 casino bonus. Min stake €/€10. Min odds Evens. First bet only. Free bets expire in 7 days. 14 days to accept €/£ 10 Casino Bonus. Casino bonus requires 5x wagering requirement & max win cap €/£50. Once accepted it is active for 3 days. Cashed out bets won’t apply. Payment method restrictions. Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland customers only. 30 days to qualify for €/£40 in Free Bets. 18+ T&Cs apply. #Ad

paddy power 12 Places Each-Way at the 2021 Open Championship with Paddy Power

Number 2 in additional places offered on golf so far in 2021 – see our analysis available here  – Paddy Power have also taken things to a record level with 12 places each-way at 1/6 odds at the 2021 Open.

If you haven’t already got a Paddy Power account then new customers, 18+, signing up via Golf betting System, can access a £/€20 risk-free bet offer using promo code YSKAEE – see below:

✅ £/€20 risk-free bet offer for new customers using code YSKAEE and this qualifying link
✅ For further details read our Paddy Power promo code page
✅ Paddy’s most popular new customer offer for Golf Betting System visitors
✅ Offered 12 places each-way 1/6 odds at the 2021 Open Championship for the first time ever

Paddy Power New Customer Offer: New customers only. Place your FIRST bet on any sportsbook market and if it loses we will refund your stake in CASH. Max refund for this offer is £20. Only deposits made using Cards or Apple Pay will qualify for this promotion. T&Cs apply. Paddy’s Rewards Club: Get a £10 free bet when you place 5x bets of £10+. T&Cs apply. #Ad

bet365 have also upped their game for the 2021 Open and as they have done for every Major Championship this year, they are offering 8 places each-way at 1/5 odds, plus market leading odds on many players.

bet365 8 Places Each-Way at the 2021 Open Championship with bet365

Get up to £100 in Bet Credits to use on the Open Championship

New bet365 customers can get up to £100 in Bet Credits when registering a new account via Golf Betting System using bonus code SPORT100 and a qualifying link such as this.

✅ Up to £100 In Bet Credits for new customers
✅ For further details read our bet365 sign up offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and European Tour
✅ Offered 8 places each-way 1/5 odds at all 4 Majors in 2021 with very competitive odds

bet365 New Customer Offer: Up to £100 in Bet Credits. New Customers only. Up to £100 in Bet Credits. Sign up, deposit £5 or more to your account and bet365 will match your qualifying deposit in Bet Credits when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply. The bonus code SPORT100 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad

Paul Williams has given us his view of the outright market in his preview here. However here’s a set of longer shots – players 30th and lower in the betting market – all of whom have a strong chance of making the each way places or even better in my view:

Harris English 1pt EW 66/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Betfair

It’s a pretty simple narrative with Harris English. A 2-time winner this season on the PGA Tour, English is playing brilliant golf, he’s more than useful by the coast and in the wind, allied to the fact that across his last 5 Major appearances he’s finished 19th at the 2020 PGA, 4th at the 2020 U.S. Open, 21st at the 2021 Masters and 3rd at last month’s U.S. Open.

He might not have the much vaulted top-10 at an Open Championship, but 15th at the infamous 2013 Muirfield Open won by Phil Mickelson featured a battling +6/290 total. Plenty of water has flowed under the bridge since then, but 4 finishes from 5 visits to the ‘British Open’ highlight an American raider who’s prepared to grind, and the Harris English we’ve seen in 2021 has been eye-catching.

2nd in the FedEx Cup season-long standings, English has forced his way into Steve Stricker’s thinking for the Ryder Cup with wins at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and the Travelers Championship on his last outing. 3rd for Tee to Green last time out in Connecticut, Harris is a 2-time winner by the coast on the PGA Tour, with a CV which holds coastal success stories at the likes of El Camaleon (Mayakoba), Kapalua (Tournament of Champions), Torrey Pines (Farmers Insurance & U.S. Open), Waialae (Sony Open) and Sea Island (RSM Classic) where the 31 year-old is now based. RESULT: T46

✅ Up to £100 in free bets for new customers using code ZBBC01 and this qualifying link
✅ For further details read our Betfair sign up offer page
✅ Bet on Betfair fixed odds sportsbook or Betfair Exchange from a single account
✅ Offered 10 places each-way 1/5 odds at all 4 Majors in 2021

Betfair New Customer Offer: Place 5 x £10 or more bets to receive £20 in free bets. Repeat up to 5 times to receive maximum £100 bonus. Min odds 1/2 (1.5). Exchange bets excluded. Payment restrictions apply. T&Cs apply. #Ad

Ian Poulter 1pt EW 75/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

When the wind blows, Royal St George’s can be an intimidating golf course. It hasn’t got the length of 2021 coastal Major venues Kiawah Island and Torrey Pines in the United States, but this is specialised links golf and if the wind does get significant this week then older, experienced heads are a real commodity. On average across the past 9 winners, they had appeared in 12 Open Championships prior to winning. Jordan Spieth with 4 Open appearances and Ernie Els with 21 are the outliers statistically. So a confident and firing Ian Poulter is a must-back for me this week.

This will be Ian’s 19th Open Championship appearance and within those we have a 2nd (2008), 3rd (2013), 9th (2012), 11th (2005) and 14th (2017). And in Ryder Cup year, Poulter will undoubtedly be 100% focussed on forcing Padraig Harrington to give him a Captain’s pick.

3rd at the Charles Schwab Challenge in May and 4th last week at the Scottish Open are the kind of recent, high-yielding OWGR points results that ‘Poults’ needs and a testing week on a short, genuine links has to be right up the 45 year-old’s street. If Ian can get into a contending position this week, expect the Stevenage, Hertfordshire man to be a well-supported darling of a patriotic English crowd. RESULT: T26

✅ Up to £100 In Bet Credits for new customers
✅ For further details read our bet365 sign up offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and European Tour
✅ Offered 8 places each-way 1/5 odds at all 4 Majors in 2021 with very competitive odds

bet365 New Customer Offer: Up to £100 in Bet Credits. New Customers only. Up to £100 in Bet Credits. Sign up, deposit £5 or more to your account and bet365 will match your qualifying deposit in Bet Credits when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply. The bonus code SPORT100 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad

Stewart Cink 1pt EW 125/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Betfair

Stewart Cink has been revitalised this season on the PGA Tour. A 2-time winner at the Safeway Open and RBC Heritage, the 48 year-old has also finished 12th at The Masters, 30th at the PGA Championship and 57th at the U.S. Open.

He’s 39th in the Official Golf World Rankings, has won in 2021, was the 2009 Open Champion and this will be his 22nd Open Championship outing. He ticks each and every Open Championship winner’s trend box and you can add to the list that he ranked 2nd for Strokes Gained Tee to Green last time out at the Travelers Championship. Has the guile, experience and links-positive game to contend this week on the exposed Kent coast. RESULT: MC

✅ Up to £100 in free bets for new customers using code ZBBC01 and this qualifying link
✅ For further details read our Betfair sign up offer page
✅ Bet on Betfair fixed odds sportsbook or Betfair Exchange from a single account
✅ Offered 10 places each-way 1/5 odds at all 4 Majors in 2021

Betfair New Customer Offer: Place 5 x £10 or more bets to receive £20 in free bets. Repeat up to 5 times to receive maximum £100 bonus. Min odds 1/2 (1.5). Exchange bets excluded. Payment restrictions apply. T&Cs apply. #Ad

Kevin Kisner 1pt EW 125/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Coral

Hot form is always a huge upside for any player wanting to win the Open Championship and Kevin Kisner has it in bucketloads.

5th at the Travelers and 8th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic across his last 2 PGA Tour appearances, he ranked 3rd for Strokes Gained Putting at TPC River Highlands, whilst on his last outing in Detroit he ranked 11th for Strokes Gained on Approach and 12th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green.

And this will be the 37 year-old’s 6th Open Championship appearance. Remember he was 2nd at 300/1 at the 2018 Carnoustie-hosted Open Championship when arriving off form of MC-MC-52-MC-MC-55 and in reality the ‘British Open’ as he knows it, has to be his best chance of a Major Championship victory on the basis that his lack of length off the tee make United States-based Majors a nightmare for him.

A real coastal expert, with great form across short United States coastal tracks at Harbour Town (2nd 2015), Sea Island (1st 2015, 2nd 2021) and Waialae (4th 2017, 2020 – 5th, 2016). RESULT: 73rd

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✅ For further details read our Coral sign up offer page
✅ 7 places each-way, 1/5 odds consistently used on full-field PGA & Euro Tour events
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Padraig Harrington 1pt EW 125/1 (10EW, 1/5) with Betfred

Nasty, gnarly conditions if they materialise will send plenty in this field packing, many on private jets back to the United States. But strong winds and a genuine links test simply shouts Padraig Harrington and as we have seen in glimpses in 2021, there’s still life in the Team Europe Ryder Cup Captain.

Up 150 spots in the Official World Golf Ranking, Harrington has finished 6th at the Dubai Desert Classic, 4th at the PGA Championship and 18th last week at the Scottish Open. And the latest forecast suggests that his nuggety ability to hang around, powered by an immense short game, could be just the ticket this week.

After finishing 4th at the PGA hosted at a tough, windy, coastal Kiawah Island, Harrington said, “Put me on a windy golf course and I’m going to be competitive to pretty much everybody. I think myself, Phil would find it easier to compete on this style of golf course in these conditions in a major tournament all the time. You can be patient in these courses, and obviously you’ve got to make a few birdies, but it suits somebody who is a player, somebody who is thinking.”

I don’t foresee the test being too much different this week and Padraig looks to be peaking and with a nice Thursday tee time. RESULT: 72nd

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Barbasol Championship Tips

While the Open Championship is happening at Royal St George’s, another ‘second division’ alternate tournament on the PGA Tour takes place. The Barbasol Championship was introduced in 2015 and is now played at the Keene Trace Golf Club, Nicholasville, Kentucky. The course is a 7,328 yard, Par 72 where the green light is always on to shoot low scores.

Won by Jim Herman (500/1) and Troy Merritt (55/1), the full 2-year PGA Tour exemption available to the winner is a huge carrot, as is the possibility of harvesting enough FedEx Cup points to grab a spot in the magical top 125 or even top 150 (partial status for 21/22). Played in sweltering and humid conditions in deepest Kentucky, -26/262 and -23/265 have been the winning totals required.

I have 3 selections for that event:

Richy Werenski 1pt EW 33/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Boylesports

Richy Werenski is hitting plenty of greens at the moment and that spells trouble for this week’s Barbasol Championship field.

Werenski is undoubtedly a resort golf course expert who really comes to the party when birdies are the prerequisite. 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 3rd at the Zurich Classic team event (with Peter Uihlein) so far in 2021, Richy sits at a comfortable 103rd in the FedEx Cup standings so is guaranteed Playoff golf in August. He plays this week in Kentucky with no fear and fresh from a decent outing 2 weeks ago at the Rocket Mortgage Classic where he was 6th after 36 and 54 holes, before finishing 25th after a slow Sunday.

But these alternate events are where the 29 year-old has thrived in the past. 18th at the 2017 Barbasol (previous course), 2nd at the 2017 Barracuda, 2nd at the 2018 Barbasol (played here), and 1st at the 2020 Barracuda, Werenski loves these softer fields and easier golf courses. 2nd for Approach and 6th for Tee to Green here in 2018, Richy has shot 3 rounds of 66 and 2 more rounds of 67 here at Keen Trace across his last 8 competitive rounds. RESULT: MC

✅ Bet £10 Get £30 for new mobile customers using this qualifying link
✅ Regularly extending full-field PGA Tour events to 8 or 10 places each-way in 2021
✅ Offered 12 places each-way 1/6 odds at the 2021 Open Championship for the first time ever

Boylesports UK New Customer Offer: New UK customers (Excluding NI) only. Mobile exclusive. Min stake £10. Min odds Evs. Free bet applied on 1st settlement of any qualifying bet. 30 days to qualify. Free bets expire in 7 days. Cashed out/Free Bets won’t apply. Payment method restrictions. 1 Free Bet offer per customer, household & IP Address only. 18+. T&Cs apply. #Ad

Chesson Hadley 1pt EW 50/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Boylesports

It’s undoubtedly been a PGA Tour season where players with long winless streaks have finally got over the line. Stewart Cink, Martin Laird, Jason Kokrak, Branden Grace, Matt Jones, Hideki Matsuyama at The Masters, Joel Dahmen, and last week saw Lucas Glover break a 10 year victory drought when he captured the John Deere Classic.

Well we were on Chesson Hadley when he won the 2014 Puerto Rico Open, and I can see him going very well this week in Kentucky. At 117th in the FedEx Cup standings he needs to keep playing well to capture full playing privileges for next season, and in this field he ranks in the top 12 for Strokes Gained Putting and T3 for Strokes Gained Current Form across my 8-week trackers.

The long term leader at the Palmetto Championship last month, Chesson was 3rd going into the weekend at the JDC last week, firing a -8/63 on Thursday. That win in Puerto Rico in 2014, combined with 2nd at the 2017 Sanderson Farms Championship, highlights a player who takes these alternate events very seriously and he’s always been the sort to fire in birdie-fests. RESULT: MC

✅ Bet £10 Get £30 for new mobile customers using this qualifying link
✅ Regularly extending full-field PGA Tour events to 8 or 10 places each-way in 2021
✅ Offered 12 places each-way 1/6 odds at the 2021 Open Championship for the first time ever

Boylesports UK New Customer Offer: New UK customers (Excluding NI) only. Mobile exclusive. Min stake £10. Min odds Evs. Free bet applied on 1st settlement of any qualifying bet. 30 days to qualify. Free bets expire in 7 days. Cashed out/Free Bets won’t apply. Payment method restrictions. 1 Free Bet offer per customer, household & IP Address only. 18+. T&Cs apply. #Ad

Kevin Tway 1pt EW 66/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Boylesports

Kevin Tway played nicely in Illinois last week and his 23rd place finish helped him jump 9 spots in the FedEx Cup standings, but at 183rd it’s a case of here and now if he wants to retain full or even partial PGA Tour status for next season.

His game is undoubtedly improving, as are the results. Ranking T3 in this field for Strokes Gained Current Form over the past 8 weeks, he’s the 3rd hottest putter in this field behind only Rhein Gibson and Aaron Baddeley (of course).

An opening Thursday 66 and closing 64 were great rounds at the John Deere Classic last week, and the 2018 Safeway Open winner – played at the short Par 72 at Silverado – should like the set-up here at Keene Trace this week. 66th, 14th and 23rd across his last 3 outings at the Travelers, Rocket Mortgage and John Deere Classic. RESULT: T26

✅ Bet £10 Get £30 for new mobile customers using this qualifying link
✅ Regularly extending full-field PGA Tour events to 8 or 10 places each-way in 2021
✅ Offered 12 places each-way 1/6 odds at the 2021 Open Championship for the first time ever

Boylesports UK New Customer Offer: New UK customers (Excluding NI) only. Mobile exclusive. Min stake £10. Min odds Evs. Free bet applied on 1st settlement of any qualifying bet. 30 days to qualify. Free bets expire in 7 days. Cashed out/Free Bets won’t apply. Payment method restrictions. 1 Free Bet offer per customer, household & IP Address only. 18+. T&Cs apply. #Ad

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:40BST 13.7.21 but naturally subject to fluctuation.