Open Championship Longshots 2021

It’s a pretty simple narrative with Harris English. A 2-time winner this season on the PGA Tour, English is playing brilliant golf, he’s more than useful by the coast and in the wind, allied to the fact that across his last 5 Major appearances he’s finished 19th at the 2020 PGA, 4th at the 2020 U.S. Open, 21st at the 2021 Masters and 3rd at last month’s U.S. Open.

He might not have the much vaulted top-10 at an Open Championship, but 15th at the infamous 2013 Muirfield Open won by Phil Mickelson featured a battling +6/290 total. Plenty of water has flowed under the bridge since then, but 4 finishes from 5 visits to the ‘British Open’ highlight an American raider who’s prepared to grind, and the Harris English we’ve seen in 2021 has been eye-catching.

2nd in the FedEx Cup season-long standings, English has forced his way into Steve Stricker’s thinking for the Ryder Cup with wins at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and the Travelers Championship on his last outing. 3rd for Tee to Green last time out in Connecticut, Harris is a 2-time winner by the coast on the PGA Tour, with a CV which holds coastal success stories at the likes of El Camaleon (Mayakoba), Kapalua (Tournament of Champions), Torrey Pines (Farmers Insurance & U.S. Open), Waialae (Sony Open) and Sea Island (RSM Classic) where the 31 year-old is now based. RESULT: T46

When the wind blows, Royal St George’s can be an intimidating golf course. It hasn’t got the length of 2021 coastal Major venues Kiawah Island and Torrey Pines in the United States, but this is specialised links golf and if the wind does get significant this week then older, experienced heads are a real commodity. On average across the past 9 winners, they had appeared in 12 Open Championships prior to winning. Jordan Spieth with 4 Open appearances and Ernie Els with 21 are the outliers statistically. So a confident and firing Ian Poulter is a must-back for me this week.

This will be Ian’s 19th Open Championship appearance and within those we have a 2nd (2008), 3rd (2013), 9th (2012), 11th (2005) and 14th (2017). And in Ryder Cup year, Poulter will undoubtedly be 100% focussed on forcing Padraig Harrington to give him a Captain’s pick.

3rd at the Charles Schwab Challenge in May and 4th last week at the Scottish Open are the kind of recent, high-yielding OWGR points results that ‘Poults’ needs and a testing week on a short, genuine links has to be right up the 45 year-old’s street. If Ian can get into a contending position this week, expect the Stevenage, Hertfordshire man to be a well-supported darling of a patriotic English crowd. RESULT: T26

Stewart Cink has been revitalised this season on the PGA Tour. A 2-time winner at the Safeway Open and RBC Heritage, the 48 year-old has also finished 12th at The Masters, 30th at the PGA Championship and 57th at the U.S. Open.

He’s 39th in the Official Golf World Rankings, has won in 2021, was the 2009 Open Champion and this will be his 22nd Open Championship outing. He ticks each and every Open Championship winner’s trend box and you can add to the list that he ranked 2nd for Strokes Gained Tee to Green last time out at the Travelers Championship. Has the guile, experience and links-positive game to contend this week on the exposed Kent coast. RESULT: MC

Hot form is always a huge upside for any player wanting to win the Open Championship and Kevin Kisner has it in bucketloads.

5th at the Travelers and 8th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic across his last 2 PGA Tour appearances, he ranked 3rd for Strokes Gained Putting at TPC River Highlands, whilst on his last outing in Detroit he ranked 11th for Strokes Gained on Approach and 12th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green.

And this will be the 37 year-old’s 6th Open Championship appearance. Remember he was 2nd at 300/1 at the 2018 Carnoustie-hosted Open Championship when arriving off form of MC-MC-52-MC-MC-55 and in reality the ‘British Open’ as he knows it, has to be his best chance of a Major Championship victory on the basis that his lack of length off the tee make United States-based Majors a nightmare for him.

A real coastal expert, with great form across short United States coastal tracks at Harbour Town (2nd 2015), Sea Island (1st 2015, 2nd 2021) and Waialae (4th 2017, 2020 – 5th, 2016). RESULT: 73rd

Nasty, gnarly conditions if they materialise will send plenty in this field packing, many on private jets back to the United States. But strong winds and a genuine links test simply shouts Padraig Harrington and as we have seen in glimpses in 2021, there’s still life in the Team Europe Ryder Cup Captain.

Up 150 spots in the Official World Golf Ranking, Harrington has finished 6th at the Dubai Desert Classic, 4th at the PGA Championship and 18th last week at the Scottish Open. And the latest forecast suggests that his nuggety ability to hang around, powered by an immense short game, could be just the ticket this week.

After finishing 4th at the PGA hosted at a tough, windy, coastal Kiawah Island, Harrington said, “Put me on a windy golf course and I’m going to be competitive to pretty much everybody. I think myself, Phil would find it easier to compete on this style of golf course in these conditions in a major tournament all the time. You can be patient in these courses, and obviously you’ve got to make a few birdies, but it suits somebody who is a player, somebody who is thinking.”

I don’t foresee the test being too much different this week and Padraig looks to be peaking and with a nice Thursday tee time. RESULT: 72nd

Richy Werenski is hitting plenty of greens at the moment and that spells trouble for this week’s Barbasol Championship field.

Werenski is undoubtedly a resort golf course expert who really comes to the party when birdies are the prerequisite. 4th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 3rd at the Zurich Classic team event (with Peter Uihlein) so far in 2021, Richy sits at a comfortable 103rd in the FedEx Cup standings so is guaranteed Playoff golf in August. He plays this week in Kentucky with no fear and fresh from a decent outing 2 weeks ago at the Rocket Mortgage Classic where he was 6th after 36 and 54 holes, before finishing 25th after a slow Sunday.

But these alternate events are where the 29 year-old has thrived in the past. 18th at the 2017 Barbasol (previous course), 2nd at the 2017 Barracuda, 2nd at the 2018 Barbasol (played here), and 1st at the 2020 Barracuda, Werenski loves these softer fields and easier golf courses. 2nd for Approach and 6th for Tee to Green here in 2018, Richy has shot 3 rounds of 66 and 2 more rounds of 67 here at Keen Trace across his last 8 competitive rounds. RESULT: MC

It’s undoubtedly been a PGA Tour season where players with long winless streaks have finally got over the line. Stewart Cink, Martin Laird, Jason Kokrak, Branden Grace, Matt Jones, Hideki Matsuyama at The Masters, Joel Dahmen, and last week saw Lucas Glover break a 10 year victory drought when he captured the John Deere Classic.

Well we were on Chesson Hadley when he won the 2014 Puerto Rico Open, and I can see him going very well this week in Kentucky. At 117th in the FedEx Cup standings he needs to keep playing well to capture full playing privileges for next season, and in this field he ranks in the top 12 for Strokes Gained Putting and T3 for Strokes Gained Current Form across my 8-week trackers.

The long term leader at the Palmetto Championship last month, Chesson was 3rd going into the weekend at the JDC last week, firing a -8/63 on Thursday. That win in Puerto Rico in 2014, combined with 2nd at the 2017 Sanderson Farms Championship, highlights a player who takes these alternate events very seriously and he’s always been the sort to fire in birdie-fests. RESULT: MC

Kevin Tway played nicely in Illinois last week and his 23rd place finish helped him jump 9 spots in the FedEx Cup standings, but at 183rd it’s a case of here and now if he wants to retain full or even partial PGA Tour status for next season.

His game is undoubtedly improving, as are the results. Ranking T3 in this field for Strokes Gained Current Form over the past 8 weeks, he’s the 3rd hottest putter in this field behind only Rhein Gibson and Aaron Baddeley (of course).

An opening Thursday 66 and closing 64 were great rounds at the John Deere Classic last week, and the 2018 Safeway Open winner – played at the short Par 72 at Silverado – should like the set-up here at Keene Trace this week. 66th, 14th and 23rd across his last 3 outings at the Travelers, Rocket Mortgage and John Deere Classic. RESULT: T26