Golf never fails to offer excitement, elation or heartbreak (delete as applicable) on a Sunday and last week’s wins for Robert MacIntyre and Max Homa once again showed us that nothing is impossible on the final day of a professional golf event.
MacIntyre’s win from off the pace, having seemingly blown his chance with a pair of late bogeys before rallying, was great to see from a likeable young golfer, whereas Max Homa’s chip in on the 72nd hole in the US clearly did enough to rattle Danny Willett, who was backed at the shortest prices imaginable before 3-putting the final hole from inside 4 feet.
On to this week we go and after a 3-year hiatus the French Open is back on the schedule, meaning it’s a welcome return to the exacting test that is the Albatros Course at Le Golf National. Patrick Reed returns from LIV duties to headline the betting this week at 16/1, with Thomas Pieters (16/1), Robert MacIntyre (20/1) and Victor Perez (20/1) as his nearest challengers in this 156-man field which is freshly sponsored by Cazoo.
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Albatros Course, Le Golf National, Paris, France. Designer: Hubert Chesneau, 1990; Par: 71; Length: 7,247 yards; Water Hazards: 6; Fairways: Bent/Rye/Fescue; Rough: Bent/Rye/Fescue; Greens: Bent/Meadow Grass, 12’6″ on the stimp.
Course Overview. Le Golf National is always set up strongly for this event and danger lurks on many holes if you miss fairways with water at the start and end of each round.
The 7,247 yard, par-71 stadium course was designed to test the very best golfers with a premium on accurate driving and, in particular, approaches to difficult, undulating greens. Missing greens isn’t a great option here as scrambling is tough, so attacking from the fairway has to be the only real strategy and finding the right parts of greens with any consistency is only really possible from the short stuff.
The last few renewals have seen a mix of dry conditions (2010, 2013, 2015, 2018) and wet (2011, 2012) and a combination of both (2014, 2016, 2017, 2019); wet or dry the rough here is amongst the very toughest on the European Tour, plus some of the holes are pretty brutal in terms of length – the 17th (480 yards) and 18th (471 yards) will play amongst the most difficult on the week.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Winners & Prices. 2019: Nicolas Colsaerts, 100/1; 2018: Alex Noren, 16/1; 2017: Tommy Fleetwood, 22/1; 2016: Thongchai Jaidee, 66/1; 2015: Bernd Wiesberger, 33/1; 2014: Graeme McDowell, 12/1; 2013: Graeme McDowell, 25/1; 2012: Marcel Siem, 70/1; 2011: Thomas Levet, 140/1; 2010: Miguel Angel Jimenez, 80/1.
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for the region is here.
Dry, largely cloudy conditions are expected over the four tournament days with temperatures nudging towards 70 Fahrenheit in the afternoons. Winds will be generally light at around 5-10mph.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. Analysing the final stats of the past 10 winners at Le Golf National gives us a little more insight into the type of player suited to this test:
2019, Nicolas Colsaerts (-12). 57.1% fairways (33rd), 77.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 55.0% scrambling (30th), 1.68 putts per GIR (9th)
2018, Alex Noren (-7). 75% fairways (2nd), 75% greens in regulation (5th), 55.6% scrambling (8th), 1.76 putts per GIR (37th)
2017, Tommy Fleetwood (-12). 76.8% fairways (3rd), 84.7% greens in regulation (1st), 63.6% scrambling (9th), 1.84 putts per GIR (53rd)
2016, Thongchai Jaidee (-11). 62.5% fairways (22nd), 69.% greens in regulation (18th), 68.2% scrambling (2nd), 1.68 putts per GIR (3rd)
2015, Bernd Wiesberger (-13). 55.4% fairways (45th), 81.9% greens in regulation (2nd), 76.9% scrambling (3rd), 1.80 putts per GIR (33rd)
2014, Graeme McDowell (-5). 62.5% fairways (17th), 68.1% greens in regulation (22nd), 56.5% scrambling (15th), 1.69 putts per GIR (4th).
2013, Graeme McDowell (-9). 71.4% fairways (15th), 79.2% greens in regulation (1st), 73.3% scrambling (2nd), 1.76 putts per GIR (29th).
2012, Marcel Siem (-8). 73.2% fairways (2nd), 73.6% greens in regulation (3rd), 63.2% scrambling (4th), 1.78 putts per GIR (32nd).
2011, Thomas Levet (-7). 67.9% fairways (38th), 73.6% greens in regulation (3rd), 68.4% scrambling (8th), 1.77 putts per GIR (19th).
2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez (-11). 76.8% fairways (16th), 77.8% greens in regulation (11th), 56.3% scrambling (38th), 1.64 putts per GIR (3rd).
Le Golf National is perennially described as a course where tee-to-green excellence prevails and I agree with that to an extent; however minimising bogeys with an excellent short game shouldn’t be underestimated here either.
For a player to contend here they’re going to have to find the vast majority of greens in regulation or minimise bogeys with an excellent week around the greens; the winner is ultimately likely to excel in one or both areas over the four days.
On the subject of scrambling, 6 of the top 7 last time we visited Le Golf National ranked inside the top 17 for getting up and down. Alex Noren sat 8th on that count after 72 holes in 2018; Tommy Fleetwood ranked 9th the year before and runner-up Peter Uihlein led the field with an excellent 82.6%. Thongchai Jaidee ranked 2nd in the field for getting the ball up and down in 2016; players ranked 1st to 5th for scrambling finished inside the top 6 overall in 2015; 1st, 2nd and 6th for scrambling finished inside the final top 5 in 2014; likewise in 2013 players ranked 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th for scrambling finished inside the top 6; 2012 had players ranked 1st, 2nd, 4th and 6th for scrambling finish inside the top 4 and 2011 had similar stats with 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th and 8th ranked players for scrambling finishing inside the top 7.
This all makes sense when you consider that the greens here are designed to be played firm and fast so they’ll be difficult to hold for all but the very best tee-to-green practitioners in anything but soft conditions.
Stroke Gained Stats: From a Strokes Gained perspective, we only have the 2019 renewal to go on, however that does give us a few clues. Eventual winner Nicolas Colsaerts and 3rd place finisher George Coetzee both excellent in terms of SG Approach and SG Tee to Green, with Colsaerts’ superior performance from Off the Tee the difference between the two men. 2nd place JB Hansen was the exception to the rule where his putter did most of the damage:
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
Incoming Form: Form-wise there’s a really mixed bag when looking at the winners in recent years. Nicolas Colsaerts is a case in point from the last time we visited these parts, with a solitary top-20 finish to his name in his previous 11 starts. That effort was on his penultimate start though at the Spanish Open where he closed with a round of 64, so there was a little bit of positivity to latch onto.
Alex Noren was clearly in good nick in 2018 having recorded 4 consecutive top-25 finishes, as was Tommy Fleetwood who’d finished 4th at the US Open and 6th at the BMW International Open immediately prior to his success here 5 years ago; Jaidee hadn’t recorded a single top-10 finish in 2016 prior to winning; Wiesberger had finished 27th in Germany the week before and 2nd in Ireland, however in between those results were 4 missed cuts; McDowell improved on his 6th place finish in Ireland on his previous start before defending his title 8 years ago and was in the middle of his win-or-bust run when he arrived here the year before with form of MC/1/MC/1/MC/MC/MC; Marcel Siem was in decent nick with 4 top-10s to his name in 2012 prior to victory, whereas Tomas Levet hadn’t recorded a top 10 all season prior to his emotional (and for him painful) victory the year before.
Jimenez had missed 3 cuts in his last 5 attempts before his triumph here in 2010; Kaymer was coming into form in 2009 when he won, however he’d missed the cut the week before; Larrazabal was a shock outsider who came through qualifying in 2008; Storm had managed a couple of top 10s in his last 10 starts in 2007; Bickerton had missed 4 of 5 cuts in 2006 and Remesy’s successful defence in 2005 came off the back of a very poor season. All in all a very mixed bag.
2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez: 52/12/17/17/MC/MC/8/MC/49
Course Form (back to 2010): It’s also interesting to note that 13 of the past 15 winners here had previously recorded a top-25 or better on this course prior to their success, so looking for players with a decent enough track record here has generally proven to be a positive strategy.
Tommy Fleetwood’s win in 2017 blew that logic apart though as he’d previously failed to make the weekend on all four attempts here before winning his second title of the season, however generally that trend has held firm. Since 2010, course form of the winners here is as follows:
2019, Nicolas Colsaerts: 23/53/MC/54/MC/11/11/59/MC/22/55/MC
2011, Thomas Levet: MC/MC/MC/50/15/34/68/MC/58/30/69/MC
2010, Miguel Angel Jimenez: MC/23/23/8/55/MC/MC/66/25
With the Covid-related cancellations of 2020 and 2021 we haven’t seen this course for 3 years now, however the demands of Le Golf National remain the same and this course isn’t for the faint of heart.
Even with little breeze in the forecast, this will demand strong ball-striking as well as a competent short game for players who have aspirations of taking the title on Sunday. Le Golf National is often described as having inland links characteristics and players with a liking for that style of golf often excel here.
My selections are as follows:
Ewen Ferguson 2pts EW 50/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Paddy Power
The rise of Ewen Ferguson is 2022 has been quite remarkable, yet despite his success he’s still not getting the respect he deserves in the betting markets.
The facts speak for themselves: wins at the Qatar Masters and ISPS World Invitational have elevated the Glaswegian over 150 places in the OWGR since the start of the season, and he could quite reasonably have added a third title to his collection in Denmark a little over a fortnight ago if Oliver Wilson hadn’t buried a pair of outlandish putts on the back 9 on Sunday.
Both of those wins came on challenging tracks – winning totals of 7- and 12-under are testament to that fact – so another tough test at Le Golf National would seem to suit after taking last week off after missing the cut at Wentworth on debut.
The fact that the 28 year-old is making his debut here in Paris is the only real negative that can be drawn about his chances in my view, however the briefest of glances at his best efforts over the past year suggests to me that he’ll get on with this exposed, almost inland links-style course. Doha GC, which saw his first win, is always a good barometer for similar exposed/linksy tests and Himmerland, which saw that aforementioned near miss on his penultimate start, is another that would comfortably sit in the same category of track.
With the likes of Nicolas Colsaerts, Tommy Fleetwood and Bernd Wiesberger all winning here in the recent past, Greens In Regulation isn’t a bad place to start when it comes to compatible statistics for a successful attempt at mastering Le Golf National, and at 2nd for the season on that count – behind the metronomic Jordan Smith – is exactly what I’m looking for here. The difference between Smith and Ferguson though in terms of win equity is stark given their respective conversion rates, yet we find the Englishman half the price of his Scottish opponent this week.
12th for SG Approach and 21st for SG Tee to Green are also solid enough season-to-date rankings that correlate well with the single year of Strokes Gained data that we have from the 2019 renewal, and despite his lack of experience here at the Albatros course I really like Ewen’s chances this week. RESULT: MC
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Thorbjorn Olesen 2pts EW 35/1 (8EW, 1/5*) with bet365
The top of the market sees Patrick Reed as favourite with most bookies as he looks to build his OWGR position from a rather precarious 50th right now, with limited opportunities left for the American before the end of 2022. He, like Ferguson, is making his debut here this week but can’t boast the same level of iron-play which might help mask any lack of course experience, and hitting less than half the greens in regulation last week at LIV Chicago hardly encourages an investment.
Victor Perez and Thomas Pieters hold more appeal than Reed or indeed last week’s winner Robert MacIntyre, who’s straight back into action after his Sunday heroics, and it’s asking a lot for him to win back-to-back.
Of more appeal at a longer price is Thorbjorn Olesen who’s shown some promising sparks following his return to golf having welcomed his second child into the world a month ago, this time a daughter.
22nd at the Made In Himmerland contained a pair of 66s in the middle two rounds for a solid effort on home soil, fuelled largely by hitting 82% of greens in regulation, his best effort on that count in just over 2 years and an important indicator of good form for a player of Olesen’s ilk.
A pair of 71s at Wentworth wasn’t quite enough to make the final day, however 16th last week in Italy showed good progress with all Strokes Gained aspects of his game in positive territory, and there were marked improvements both from off the tee and from tee to green. More of the same this week coupled with the kind of sparky week that we know he can have with the putter – he’s led the field twice for SG Putting in his last twenty starts – and he could give himself a real chance of a second 2022 title and a 7th overall on the DP World Tour.
Le Golf National has been a little famine or feast for the 32 year-old over the years, with a runner-up finish here on debut in 2011 and a 3rd place finish in 2017 interspersed with four missed cuts and a withdrawal in 2017 following an opening round of 80. Those positive years, however, do offer encouragement that when striking his irons well he can contend around these parts.
Since Ryder Cup qualification began at Wentworth, we’ve already seen Shane Lowry and Robert MacIntyre throw their hat into the ring. Given the LIV situation pushing a few of the ‘old guard’ out of the equation, seeing the likes of Olesen put a strong case for inclusion – either automatically or as a pick – wouldn’t be a huge surprise, having had an albeit limited taste of the occasion right here in Paris in 2018, where he most notably beat Jordan Spieth 5&4 in the Sunday Singles. RESULT: T20
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Despite not pushing on from a strong halfway position for the second consecutive event last week, Tom Lewis is worth taking a chance on here in France in my view.
4th after 36 holes in Denmark resulted in a 12th place finish overall after weekend rounds of 68/72, and it was a similar story in Rome having snuck into the final Saturday group alongside Matt Fitzpatrick and Rory McIlroy courtesy of a sparkling second round of 65.
Perhaps rubbing shoulders with the US Open champion and FedEx Cup Champion contributed to his opening half of 40 on Saturday, or perhaps it was just simply a bad run of holes; either way it doesn’t seem to have perturbed him too much judging by his social media, and it seems that he’s confident that he’s on the right track and on an upward trajectory right now.
Certainly the statistics would back that up: 2nd for GIR last week translated to 1st for SG Approach and 11th for SG Tee to Green as the 31 year-old looks to build on his pair of Portugal Masters victories at DP World Tour level.
Despite being a whole lot easier than here in Paris, that exposed track at Vilamoura might also give us a few clues as to a likely winner at Le Golf National. 2019 winner Nicolas Colsaerts has finished 2nd in the Algarve in the past; 2018 winner Alex Noren has a 6th place finish there; 2017 winner Tommy Fleetwood finished 3rd in 2020; 2016 winner Thongchai Jaidee has a top 10 there; and 2015 winner Bernd Wiesberger has a pair of top-4 finishes to his name in Portugal.
It would be easy to look at the Englishman’s two wins at the Dom Pedro Victoria and pigeon-hole him as a flat-track bully, which would go some way to explaining his poor record here in Paris, however I’m not sure it’s quite that straightforward. 5th at the British Masters shortly after the second of his wins was achieved with a 4-under total at a tricky Walton Heath; 3rd at the Dubai Desert Classic at the start of 2020 came courtesy of a 7-under score; and 2nd later that year at the WGC FedEx St Jude came at 10-under at a challenging TPC Southwind.
So writing Lewis off due to course difficulty could be a mistake, as could ignoring him due to three missed cuts here from three attempts. Tommy Fleetwood won here on his 5th attempt having failed to make the weekend the first four times, and Lewis was also in significantly worse form on each of his visits here than he is right now. At a decent enough price, I’m happy to take a chance this week. RESULT: T50
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Soren Kjeldsen 1pt EW 175/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Betfred
Finally, another player who can handle a grind is Soren Kjeldsen and there have been enough signs of late that the 47 year-old might have one last hurrah before venturing onto the Senior circuit in the not-so-distant future.
3 of his 4 career wins at DP World Tour level have come at a singe-digit under par winning total, the most recent of which was a 2-under success at Royal County Down in 2015 when he vanquished Eddie Pepperell and former Le Golf National winner Bernd Wiesberger in a play-off.
A 2018 success at the exacting test that is Valderrama at the then season-ending Volvo Masters further reinforces the point that the Dane is more than comfortable when scoring is more challenging; runner-up finishes at the same venue both before and after his win prove it was no fluke. Wins in Seville and at Gleneagles at 14- and 8-under complete the set for Soren.
19 attempts here at Le Golf National stretching back as far as 1998 puts him amongst the very most experienced players in this week’s field, and 6 top-20 efforts and a further 3 top-10 finishes over the years suggests that the Albatros suits his eye. Results here since 2015 haven’t been quite so lofty, granted, however there have been enough signs in his game of late to hint that he could be a feature this week.
7th at the Hero Open at the end of July was improved upon at Wentworth just over a week ago where Kjeldsen finished 5th, having tied for the lead heading into the third and final round. 12th for SG Approach and 5th for SG Tee to Green around the West Course isn’t too shabby, and that effort at Rolex Series level has given the 2016 Golf World Cup winner a chance of making the DP World Tour’s finale at the Earth Course in a few weeks time if he can find one more big effort in the meantime. RESULT: T70
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