Before we go into the detail surrounding the Ras al Khaimah Championship, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System as the early season progresses. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,000 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.
Course Overview. Al Hamra Golf Club is this week’s venue and the Peter Harradine design stretches to 7,325 yards for its par of 72. Although new to the DP World Tour, Al Hamra hosted 3 events on the Challenge Tour between 2016-18 which form this week’s event stats and combined stats. The latter also includes last week’s results from this course.
A regular 36/36 setup, the back 9 is longer than the front 9, and that makes the back 9 a tougher prospect with many of the best scoring opportunities coming in the first 8 holes.
The Par-5s are all long without being excessively so at 576-607 yards; 3 sub-400 yard Par 4s also add to the scoring potential of a course that’s designed for the tourist trade primarily and allows for birdies and eagles.
Set just off the coast of Ras al Khaimah, there’s definitely a coastal vibe about the track and the exposed fairways and desert surroundings are complimented by water hazards in the shape of lagoons on a number of holes for the errant. Paspalum grass has once again been used for this course, similar to what we saw in Abu Dhabi last month.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Ras al Khaimah Classic that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Current/Course Form.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Course Winners:
- (DP World Tour). 2022, Nicolai Hojgaard (-24), 35/1.
- (Challenge Tour). 2018, Adri Arnaus (-17); 2017, Jens Dantorp (-15); 2016, Jordan Smith (-20).
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Ras al Khaimah is here.
In almost a repeat performance of last week, the tournament should enjoy mild (mid-70s) and dry conditions throughout the 4 days. The breeze picks up a little in the afternoons although nothing excessive is expected with Sunday the breeziest day at 15-20mph.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors.
Whereas my preview 7 days ago was essentially a stab in the dark given that lower-tier form was all we had to go on, this week we have the benefit of last week’s result to help shape our approach.
Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, the top 2 finishers compiled their score in very similar fashion last week:
- 1st: Nicolai Hojgaard. T: 1st; A: 2nd; T2G: 1st; ATG: 38th; P: 43rd
- 2nd: Jordan Smith. T: 2nd; A: 45th; T2G: 7th; ATG: 30th; P: 11th
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
What Jordan Smith lacked with his approach play he almost made up for with the putter, but both men excelled from Off the Tee and from Tee to Green and that seems like a robust strategy for overcoming the challenges here at Al Hamra.
Of the top 6 finishers, only Adrian Otaegui really veered from this template, leading the field for SG Putting whilst losing shots from Off the Tee. For me, that’s quite telling and it would take a mercurial week on and around the greens for a player to overcome any weakness with the long game judging by what we saw last week.
Scoring Breakdown: Focussing on the same two players, who were 7 and 3 shots ahead of the rest of the pack respectively, we have the following breakdown in terms of their scoring:
- 1st: Nicolai Hojgaard. Par-3: +1; Par-4: -10; Par-5: -15; 3 Eagles, 25 Birdies. 6 Bogeys/Worse.
- 2nd: Jordan Smith. Par-3: -1; Par-4: -10; Par-5: -9; 26 Birdies. 6 Bogeys/Worse.
A knee-jerk reaction looking at Nicolai Hojgaard’s 15-under total on the par-5s would be to assume that scoring on the long holes is the most critical factor, however he was an outlier in that respect with only 12 players hitting double-digits under par for the 5s. Haotong Li, Adrian Otaegui and Matthieu Pavon were each just 6-under for the long holes for their 3rd place finishes, so although you could argue that it was a decisive factor in actually winning the title, getting into contention wasn’t predicated on Par-5 scoring alone.
Incoming Form. The incoming form of the 3 winners here at Al Hamra from the Challenge Tour days, plus last week’s winner Nicolai Hojgaard, suggests that some good recent form wouldn’t go amiss, as all four had recorded a top-8 finish in one of their last 3 starts:
- Hojgaard: MC/21/17/1/20/14/MC/MC/2/4/MC/MC
- Arnaus: 18/16/29/MC/13/11/2/30/9/48/4/18
- Dantorp: 55/MC/34/62/49/22/48/5/15/8/MC/14
- Smith: 20/15/MC/DQ/21/9/6/4/15/2/MC/MC
Hojgaard first two starts of 2022 had both resulted in a weekend off, however a drop down in class combined with a more free-scoring track did the trick for the talented Dane. A win at the Italian Open last autumn and some lofty finishes to close out 2021 shouldn’t have been ignored in hindsight.
Last week taught us that this resort course is very scoreable when conditions are tranquil and the risk-reward nature of many of the key scoring holes means that fortune may well favour the brave. With little wind expected over the first 3 days, I’m expecting another low-scoring affair this week where excellence in terms of SG Tee to Green, coupled with a compliant putter, should see the winner getting into the 20-under par region once again.
My selections are as follows:
2022 Majors Competition sponsored by bet365
