Shriners Open Tips 2022

Congratulations if you were on-board Mackenzie Hughes last week at Monday prices of up to 110/1 (best with bet365). I had Sepp Straka at 45/1 who lost in the play off with Hughes. Golf Betting System podcast listeners will have also heard me tip up Alex Noren at 40/1 for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, so I managed to hit runner-ups both sides of the Atlantic last week. If only!

This week we move to Las Vegas, Nevada for the 2022 Shriners Hospital’s Open. The PGA Tour has visited Vegas since 1983 and the tournament has had some high-class winners over the years including Tiger Woods (his first Tour victory), Jim Furyk (twice), Ryan Moore, Kevin Na (twice), Webb Simpson, Patrick Cantlay, Bryson DeChambeau and Sungjae Im. This year’s field quality is slightly down, on the basis that the top players have the opportunity to play in the no-cut ZOZO Championship in Japan and at the CJ Cup at Congaree over the next couple of weeks.

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Before we go into the detail surrounding the Shriners Open, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,100 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

Course Guide: TPC Summerlin, based in the suburbs of Las Vegas, has been the sole host of this tournament for over 20 years.

The 7,255 yard, Par 71 has a 35-36 set-up and the course is designed to produce low scores. Played at altitude, all 3 of the par-5s are reachable for the whole field and the pure Bentgrass green complexes are large, flat and usually receptive.

2016 saw an opening round -11/60 from eventual champion Rod Pampling, plus -10/61 from both Francesco Molinari and Chez Reavie, highlighting that this course can be smashed by those with a sensible approach and a hot putter. Across the past 3 renewals we have also seen Lucas Glover, Kevin Na and Matthew Wolff shoot -10/61s, highlighting that ball-strikers and short game experts alike can torch this course.

TPC Summerlin, Las Vegas, Nevada: Designer: Weed & Zoeller, 1991, redesign, 2007; Course Type: Resort, Desert, Short; Par: 71; Length: 7,255 yards; Holes with Water Hazards In-Play: 4; Fairways: Bandera Bermudagrass; Rough: 419 Bermudagrass 2.25″; Greens: 7,400 sq.ft average featuring Dominator Bentgrass; Stimpmeter: 11.5ft; Scoring Average: 2012: 69.71 (-1.29), Difficulty Rank 40 of 49 courses; 2013: 69.55 (-1.45), Difficulty Rank 43 of 43 courses; 2014: 69.66 (-1.34), Difficulty Rank 42 of 52 courses. 2015: 70.08 (-0.92), Difficulty Rank 34 of 50 courses. 2016: 69.62 (-1.38) Difficulty Rank 40 of 50 courses. 2017: 71.54 (+0.54), Difficulty Rank 10 of 51 courses. 2018: 69.37 (-1.63), Difficulty 38 of 49 courses. 2019: 68.86 (-2.14), Difficulty Rank 39 of 41 courses. 2020: 68.34 (-2.66), Difficulty Rank 48 of 51 courses. 2021: 68.93 (-2.07), Difficulty Rank 42 of 50 courses.

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for TPC Summerlin and how they compare to recent courses on Tour:

• TPC Summerlin: 250 yards from the tee: 35 yards wide; 275:37; 300:33; 325:30; 350:31.
• CC of Jackson: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:29; 325:28; 350:25.
• Silverado: 250 yards from the tee: 27 yards wide; 275:26; 300:24; 325:25; 350:24.
• East Lake: 250 yards from the tee: 28 yards wide; 275:26; 300:25; 325:24; 350:23.
• TPC Southwind: 250 yards from the tee: 29 yards wide; 275:29; 300:28; 325:31; 350:25.
• Sedgefield: 250 yards from tee: 29 yards wide; 275:28; 300:26 325:23; 350:22.
• Detroit Golf Club: 250 yards from tee: 34 yards wide; 275:34; 300:35 325:34; 350:33.
• TPC Twin Cities: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:38; 300:31; 325:30; 350:36.
• TPC Deere Run: 250 yards from tee: 41 yards wide; 275:40; 300:36 325:33; 350:30.
• TPC River Highlands: 250 yards from the tee: 38 yards wide; 275:36; 300:29; 325:29; 350:28.
• Muirfield Village: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:28; 325:24; 350:27.

Course Overview: Part of the Tournament Players Club (TPC) Network of golf courses operated by the PGA Tour, Summerlin is a Private Club that’s played regularly by Vegas-based professionals. Doug Ghim, Harry Hall, Charley Hoffman, Kurt Kitayama, David Lipsky, Maverick McNealy, Taylor Montgomery, Ryan Moore, Scott Piercy, Seamus Power and Nick Watney all have residences in the area. Claude and Butch Harmon also have a Las Vegas training centre, hence the entry for Rickie Fowler and Jimmy Walker.

The course itself features Bermudagrass fairways and rough with pure Bentgrass green complexes. That characteristic is shared with few courses on Tour apart from Colonial and previously TPC Four Seasons which used to host the Byron Nelson pre 2018. The 2013 renewal saw the introduction of new bunkering on 7, 12, 13 (Par 5) and 18, but despite that Webb Simpson equalled the tournament total score record at -24/260.

The course plays as a 7,255 yard, Par 71 which at above 2,000 feet above sea level can be attacked, however the greens have certain nuances where experience tends to pay dividends. 2018 saw 102 new bunkers in-play – it’s the same number as before, but many were relocated with fairway bunkers moved into modern day landing areas. Again this work has been put in place to try and force players to be strategic and discourage “bomb and gouge.” It hasn’t lowered winning totals though with DeChambeau shooting -21/263, Na & Laird -23/261, and Sungjae Im equalling the tournament total score record of -24/260 over the past 4 years. In summary, you can plot a great score around here.

Half of the challenge with TPC Summerlin is finding the fairway. In a PGA Tour arena where Driving Accuracy means very little most weeks, it’s interesting to note that hitting fairways on this course is of paramount importance when analysing previous winners’ statistics. Undoubtedly missing fairways adds up here as working approach shots so as to get close to pins around Summerlin is not as easy as you would think, plus on a course where birdies are essential, the penalty for missing fairways are par-saving putts rather than birdie opportunities. Miss greens and both Sand Save and Scrambling difficulty here tends to be in the top 10 most difficult on Tour each season.

And that difficulty around the green really poses a problem if the wind does blow here. Take 2017 when Patrick Cantlay won his first PGA Tour title at a very un-TPC Summerlin -9/275 winning score.

TPC Summerlin in effect is a positional golf course, where out-right brute force is negated to a neutral type setting. As Kevin Na said in 2020, “Yes, this is a great golf course for me. I think you have to really drive the ball well and keep it in the fairway so you can control the spin. I know the roughs are not deep, but because of these greens and some of the hole locations, you have to hit the fairway to be able to spin the ball. You don’t have to bomb it out here. Anybody can win out here.”

Shriners Open Winners: 2021: Sungjae Im (-24); 2020: Martin Laird (-23), 2019: Kevin Na (-23); 2019: Bryson DeChambeau (-21); 2017: Patrick Cantlay (-9); 2016: Rod Pampling (-20); 2015: Smylie Kaufman (-16); 2014: Ben Martin (-20); 2013: Webb Simpson (-24); 2012: Ryan Moore (-24); 2011: Kevin Na (-23); 2010: Jonathan Byrd (-24).

OWGR of Winners: 2021: Im 29; 2020: Laird 351; 2019: Na 40; 2018: DeChambeau 7; 2017: Cantlay 69.

Cut Line: 2021: -5; 2020: -7; 2019: -5; 2018: -3; 2017: +1; 2016: -3; 2015: -2; 2014: -2; 2013: -3; 2012: -4; 2011: -4; 2010: -4.

Lead Score Progression:

• 2021: Round 1 -10; Round 2 -14; Round 3 -18; Round 4 -24.
• 2020: Round 1 -9; Round 2 -14; Round 3 -20; Round 4 -23.
• 2019: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -22; Round 4 -23.
• 2018: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -13; Round 3 -16; Round 4 -21.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats | SG Stats.

Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here. You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im, Rickie Fowler, Martin Laird, Gary Woodland, Andrew Putnam, Chez Reavie, Matt Kuchar, Max Homa, and Tom Hoge.

Shriners Open Winning Prices: 2021: Im 33/1; 2020: Laird 225/1; 2019: Na 70/1; 2018: DeChambeau 14/1; 2017: Cantlay 20/1; 2016: Pampling 300/1; 2015: Kaufman 250/1; 2014: Martin 225/1; 2013: Simpson 20/1; 2012: Moore 14/1; 2011: Na 60/1; 2010: Byrd 50/1. Past 9 Renewals Average: 129/1; Overall Average: 107/1.

Historical Weather:

• 2021: Thursday: Overcast, with light showers off and on. High of 82. Wind SSE 7-12 mph. Friday: Mostly cloudy. High of 85. Wind SE 8-13 mph. Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with scattered showers. High of 81. Wind SSE 7-12 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with possible showers. High of 82. Wind SW 8-13 mph.
• 2020: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 95. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny. High of 92. Wind SE 5-10 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny. High of 91. Wind SSW 10-20 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny. High of 90. Wind NNE 6-12 mph.
• 2019: Thursday: Sunny. High of 85. Wind SSW 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 85. Wind SSE 6-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 84. Wind ESE 4-8 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 85. Wind NE 6-12 mph.
• 2018: Thursday: Sunny. High of 77. Wind NNE 10-15 mph. Friday: High of 80. Wind ESE 6-12 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 77. Wind N 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Sunday: Sunny. High of 78. Wind E 5-10 mph.
• 2017: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 78. Wind S 7-12 mph. Friday: Sunny and cooler, with a high of 71. Wind SSW 15 to 25 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high of 71. Wind SSW 15-25, with gusts to 30 mph. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 69. Wind SW 10-20, gusting to 25.
• 2016: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 76. Wind NE at 6-12 mph. Friday: Sunny, with a high of 78. Wind NNE at 5-10 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 78. Wind light and variable. Sunday: Sunny, with a high of 75. Wind ESE at 4-8 mph.
• 2015: Thursday: Sunny. High of 78. Wind NE at 4-8 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 78. Wind NE at 5-10 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 79. NE wind at 4-8 mph. Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High of 78. Wind E at 4-8 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Las Vegas, Nevada is here. You need plenty of wind here to affect the scoring, and if the forecasts are to be believed it’s not going to happen. With wind levels never increasing over 10 mph, TPC Summerlin will be more than attackable, with temperatures of 25-31 degrees Celsius which is warmer than 12 months ago.

Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the FedEx St Jude Championship / ISPS Handa Invitational (Galgorm Castle), which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Brandon Matthews; 2) Joseph Bramlett / Sungjae Im; 4) Arron Wise; 5) Rickie Fowler / Kevin Yu; 7) Keith Mitchell / Taylor Pendrith; 9) Hayden Buckley / Ben Taylor; 11) Will Gordon / Max Homa; 13) Scott Harrington  / Davis Thompson; 15) Byeong Hun An / K.H. Lee; 17) Emiliano Grillo / Adam Svensson; 19) Zecheng Dou; 20) Patrick Cantlay; 21) James Hahn / Tom Kim / S.H. Kim / Ryan Palmer; 25) M.J. Daffue.
• Top 25 SG Approach: 1) James Hahn; 2) Nick Hardy / Tom Kim; 4) Brian Harman; 5) Aaron Wise; 6) Russell Knox; 7) Si Woo Kim; 8) Jason Day / K.H. Lee / Mito Pereira; 11) Tom Hoge; 12) Lee Hodges / Gary Woodland; 14) Nicholas Lindheim; 15) Patrick Cantlay / M.J. Daffue / Brandon Matthews; 18) Adam Schenk; 19) Sungjae Im / Andrew Putnam / Kevin Yu; 22) Ben Martin; 23) Sam Ryder; 24) Chris Gotterup / Troy Merritt.
• Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Max Homa / Kurt Kitayama; 3) Stephan Jaeger; 4) Chris Gotterup; 5) Andrew Landry; 6) Brian Harman; 7) Byeong Hun An / Si Woo Kim / Andrew Putnam; 10) Patrick Cantlay; 11) Taylor Moore / Robby Shelton; 13)  Ben Griffin; 14) Denny McCarthy / Seamus Power; 16) Sungjae Im / Matt Wallace; 18) Peter Malnati / Nick Taylor; 20) Adam Svensson; 21) Rory Sabbatini; 22) Justin Lower / J.J. Spaun / Trevor Werbylo; 25) K.H. Lee / Alex Noren.
• Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Brian Harman; 2) Kevin Yu; 3) Sungjae Im; 4) Tom Kim; 5) Aaron Wise; 6) Max Homa; 7) Joseph Bramlett / Si Woo Kim; 9) Patrick Cantlay / Thomas Detry / Adam Svensson; 12) K.H. Lee; 13) Davis Thompson; 14) Ben Griffin / Emiliano Grillo; 16) Brandon Matthews / Keith Mitchell; 18) M.J. Daffue / J.J. Spaun; 20) Kurt Kitayama; 21) Byeong Hun An / Tom Hoge / Mito Pereira; 24) Taylor Moore; 25) Russell Knox.
• Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Taylor Montgomery; 2) Harry Hall; 3) S.H. Kim / Ryan Palmer; 5) Denny McCarthy; 6) Sungjae Im / K.H. Lee; 8) Justin Lower; 9) Emiliano Grillo / Max Homa; 11) Andrew Putnam; 12) Beau Hossler / Austin Smotherman; 14) Lucas Herbert; 15) Will Gordon / Tom Hoge; 17) Thomas Detry / Rickie Fowler / Maverick McNealy; 20) Mark Hubbard / Greyson Sigg; 22) Brian Harman / Richy Werenski; 24) Aaron Rai; 25) Patrick Cantlay / Stephan Jaeger / Aaron Rai / Ben Taylor / Aaron Wise.
• Top 25 SG Total: 1) Taylor Montgomery; 2) Thomas Detry; 3) Sungjae Im; 4) Max Homa / K.H. Lee / Aaron Wise; 7) Brian Harman; 8) Emiliano Grillo / Ryan Palmer; 10) S.H. Kim / Justin Lower / Andrew Putnam; 13) Patrick Cantlay / Denny McCarthy; 15) Joseph Bramlett / Kurt Kitayama; 17) Tom Hoge; 18) Keith Mitchell; 19) Will Gordon / Paul Haley II; 21) Lee Hodges / Taylor Moore; 23) Tom Kim / Nick Taylor; 25) Ben Taylor.

For a summary of the Strokes Gained Performances from this week’s field here at TPC Summerlin since 2015 click here.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the traditional stats of TPC Summerlin winners since 2010 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

• 2021, Sungjae Im (-24). 316 yards (26th), 73.2% fairways (19th), 86.1% greens in regulation (1st), 35’2″ proximity to hole (15th), 90.0 % scrambling (1st), 1.66 putts per GIR (10th).
• 2020, Martin Laird (-23). 323 yards (15th), 78.6% fairways (5th), 80.6% greens in regulation (15th), 33″9″ proximity to hole (20th), 64.3 % scrambling (28th), 1.66 putts per GIR (10th).
• 2019, Kevin Na (-23). 316 yards (28th), 71.4% fairways (25th), 75.0% greens in regulation (46th), 38″5″ proximity to hole (59th), 72.2 % scrambling (11th), 1.50 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2018, Bryson DeChambeau (-21). 313 yards (30th), 78.6% fairways (4th), 83.3% greens in regulation (4th), 32″2″ proximity to hole (9th), 75.0 % scrambling (3rd), 1.67 putts per GIR (13th).
• 2017, Patrick Cantlay (-9). 324 yards (13th), 64.3% fairways (5th), 72.2% greens in regulation (17th), 43″7″ proximity to hole (56th), 55.0 % scrambling (39th), 1.71 putts per GIR (9th).
• 2016, Rod Pampling (-20). 308 yards (38th), 60.7% fairways (15th), 77.8% greens in regulation (11th), 36″3″ proximity to hole (34th), 68.8 % scrambling (13th), 1.68 putts per GIR (17th).
• 2015, Smylie Kaufman (-16). 328 yards (5th), 64.3% fairways (7th), 76.4% greens in regulation (13th), 36″11″ proximity to hole (51st), 52.9 % scrambling (49th), 1.60 putts per GIR (3rd).
• 2014, Ben Martin (-20). 296 yards (64th), 64.3% fairways (18th), 81.9% greens in regulation (4th), 34″3″ proximity to hole (21st), 30.8 % scrambling (71st), 1.58 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2013, Webb Simpson (-24). 300 yards (55th), 64.3% fairways (13th), 86.1% greens in regulation (4th), 31″1″ proximity to hole (4th), 62.5% scrambling (10th), 1.65 putts per GIR (5th).
• 2012, Ryan Moore (-24). 313 yards (22nd), 66.1% fairways (10th), 83.3% greens in regulation (3rd), 33″1″ proximity to hole (14th), 66.7% scrambling (5th), 1.57 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2011, Kevin Na (-23). 314 yards (17th), 66.1% fairways (12th), 75.0% greens in regulation (40th), 40″7″ proximity to hole (67th), 77.8% scrambling (5th), 1.61 putts per GIR (5th).
• 2010, Jonathan Byrd (-24). 307 yards (12th), 78.6% fairways (3rd), 84.7% greens in regulation (12th), 31″11″ proximity to hole (18th), 63.6% scrambling (15th), 1.69 putts per GIR (10th).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 27th, Driving Accuracy: 11th, Greens in Regulation: 14th, Proximity to Hole: 31st, Scrambling: 21st, Putting Average 7th.

Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:

• 2021, Sungjae Im (-24). SG Off the Tee: 9th, SG Approach: 6th, SG Around the Green: 13th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 9th.
• 2020, Martin Laird (-23). SG Off the Tee: 27th, SG Approach: 4th, SG Around the Green: 15th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 20th.
• 2019, Kevin Na (-23). SG Off the Tee: 54th, SG Approach: 35th, SG Around the Green: 54th, SG Tee to Green: 55th, SG Putting: 1st.
• 2018, Bryson DeChambeau (-21). SG Off the Tee: 6th, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 7th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 45th.
• 2017, Patrick Cantlay (-9). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 22nd, SG Around the Green: 39th, SG Tee to Green: 7th, SG Putting: 32nd.
• 2016, Rod Pampling (-20). SG Off the Tee: 32nd, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 1st, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 39th.
• 2015, Smylie Kaufman (-16). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 21st, SG Around the Green: 71st, SG Tee to Green: 11th, SG Putting: 8th.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

• SG Off the Tee: 19th, SG Approach: 13th, SG Around the Green: 29th, SG Tee to Green: 11th, SG Putting: 22nd.

So let’s take a view from players as to how the TPC Summerlin has set up in the past and what specific skills it requires:

Matthew Wolff (2021): “I feel like I really like this course. I like the way it sets up. I didn’t know that I shot every round in the 60s here, but I think knowing, just being here, feeling good, being comfortable with the lines off the tee, the breaks on the greens, and I feel like I’m definitely starting to come into my own too. It’s only my third year out here or maybe even, no it’s my third year, I think. But there’s guys out here who have played this course for 10, 15 years, and I think I’m finally starting to remember breaks on greens, oh, this one last year didn’t break as much, and that’s starting to help me out a little bit. So the experience definitely helps”

Martin Laird (2020):”Yeah, I feel like it’s definitely a course that some local knowledge, you know the greens are tricky sometimes with the way they break. I kind of know where to hit it around here and know the holes you judge just play a little more conservative and the holes you can play aggressive. I needed an exemption to get into this week. I wasn’t in this week after having surgery last year, so I was appreciative that he gave me a spot. I came here wanting to show my appreciation, and obviously the way I’ve played first two rounds I’m very happy.

Really happy, hit the ball nicely; got the ball in the fairway a lot, which is what you got to do around here. If you get it if the fairway you can be aggressive. All around solid round all aspects. I have had good rounds every day, so I’m not going to change anything. More of the same. Pick my spots, be aggressive when you’ve got a wedge in your hand to the fairway, and some other holes just the middle of the green is never a bad place.”

Kevin Na (2019): “Yes, this is a great golf course for me. I think you have to really drive the ball well and keep it in the fairway so you can control the spin. I know the roughs are not deep, but because of these greens and some of the hole locations, you have to hit the fairway to be able to spin the ball. You don’t have to bomb it out here. Anybody can win out here. You definitely have to make some putts. You know, the scores are going to be low. The greens are getting firmer, and that’s the only protection they’ve got. The winds are supposed to be light again. I know the course can play difficult if it’s windy, but it’s not going to be windy, so I think I’ve just got to keep making birdies.

Yeah, I mean, I feel like I’m a pretty good putter. I’m a player that I feel like I get better as I get closer to the greens. That’s a strength of my game, a part of my game that gets stronger.”

Bryson DeChambeau (2018): “Yeah, I like the golf course. Suits my eye really well. When I do mis-hit it I can mis-hit it in the right spots and I’m able to get up and down. When I can attack flags and make some putts it’s good combo out here for me. I feel good out here. You know, honestly, they told me I hit 14 fairways after today and I was surprised. Really? I had 14? It was kind of like a smooth, easy day and executed it really well off the tee and was able to keep it in the fairway on every hole; that allowed me the opportunity to hit it pretty close on almost every hole. Unfortunately a couple mishaps on my wedges. Other than that, it was a pretty solid day. When I hit it close I was able to make it.

I love the golf course. It’s dry air. It’s kind of what I grew up. Fresno, California is not really humid. Kind of the same vibe and feel and conditions. There is a little elevation; that’s just a change. But I love this time of environment. Heat is always good for me.”

Patrick Cantlay (2017): “Well, it was really two different days out there. It was really like the first 14 holes, and then the last four holes. The first 14 holes was a shootout. For me, it felt like every time I wasn’t making a birdie I was losing ground. Then the last four, with the wind kicking up, I mean, that wind in and off the left on 18 makes that hole particularly difficult, and I was just trying to hit quality shots all the way to the end. The finish did not happen how I thought it would, but it was just enough.”

Rod Pampling (2016): “No, this is a good golf course for the shorter hitters. Would it be nice to hit it long? Absolutely. But you don’t need to. You know, it’s just a good course for that. You don’t have to be the bomber to do it all. Playing with Brooks today, he hits it a long way, but he was hitting a lot of irons off the tee, so it’s still a positional golf course, and that’s what you need to do is position yourself properly and give yourself the chances.”

Kevin Na (2015): “Yeah, I think this is the toughest condition I’ve ever seen out here. The greens are drying out. They’re getting firm. You see a little bit of purple in it. I thought it would be playing easy. I was surprised that it was playing difficult. This is the most difficult I’ve seen it. Wednesday playing the pro-am in the morning the greens were really soft, and overnight it just firmed up. I think a little bit of breeze helped. I think they cut the water off, and they’ve done a good job.”

Webb Simpson (2013): “I love this golf course because it reminds me of the course I grew up playing. You have a lot of options off the tee and greens are undulating and fast. So I’m just comfortable here, comfortable playing this kind of golf. The main thing is I made a lot of putts and you’ve got to do that this week. There’s three par 5s, all reachable, and a reachable par 4. So you have to take advantage of the short holes and make putts.”

Ryan Moore (2012): “On a golf course like this and playing in these conditions it is right now: no wind and perfect temperature, greens are reasonably soft and rolling nice on top of that. So it’s one of those days that you just keep putting it in play. You know you’re going to have a bunch of pitching wedges, 9-irons, 8-irons into these greens, and a few shorter irons, too. I know I’m going to hit the wedge and 9-iron. I’m going to have enough pretty darn good birdie chances if I’m just in the fairway. I’m not spectacular out of the rough. It’s one of those courses. It’s certainly not impossible if you haven’t played it, but there are little quirks and subtleties to the greens. The more and more you play you get the sense of it.”

Kevin Na (2011): “First of all, you know the golf course very well because guys come out here and practice and you know the greens. I think the big key is distance control here because the ball goes further out here. Some of the guys have trouble adjusting to that. But if you live out here you know how far your ball is flying, so it’s easier to club yourself with the irons. That’s a big edge on everybody else in the field. If I was honest put my money on the guys, if you gave me a handful of guys to pick, I would pick all the local guys.”

Jonathan Byrd (2010): “I think guys play well when they hit the ball in the fairway. And I think this year the tournament being a little sooner, I think we’ll have more rough, and I think that’s going to make the course play more difficult. So I don’t think this golf course is easy. I think there’s a lot of opportunities, but I don’t think it’s easy. If you’re not sharp by hitting the ball in the fairway, I think this course can be very difficult. And you’ll see guys making a lot of birdies, and it’s hard to make birdies if you’re not in the fairway. So you have to place them, be strategic and you have to drive the ball well.”

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the winners of the Shriners Open since 2010:

• 2021 – Sungjae Im: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 6th.
• 2020 – Martin Laird: Round 1: 13th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2019 – Kevin Na: Round 1: 43rd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2018 – Bryson DeChambeau: Round 1: 5th, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 1st.
• 2017 – Patrick Cantlay: Round 1: 6th, Round 2: 8th, Round 3: 4th.
• 2016 – Rod Pampling: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2015 – Smylie Kaufman: Round 1: 26th, Round 2: 48th, Round 3: 28th.
• 2014 – Ben Martin: Round 1: 19th, Round 2: 5th, Round 3: 1st.
• 2013 – Webb Simpson: Round 1: 6th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2012 – Ryan Moore: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2011 – Kevin Na: Round 1: 28th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2010 – Jonathan Byrd: Round 1: 11th, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 2nd.

Shots From the Lead: Below are the shots from the lead during the tournament of Shriners Open winners since 2010:

• 2021 – Sungjae Im: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: 3 back.
• 2020 – Martin Laird: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: level.
• 2019 – Kevin Na: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: 2 ahead.
• 2018 – Bryson DeChambeau: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 3 back, Round 3: level.
• 2017 – Patrick Cantlay: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 7 back, Round 3: 4 back.
• 2016 – Rod Pampling: Round 1: 2 ahead, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 1 back.
• 2015 – Smylie Kaufman: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 7 back, Round 3: 7 back.
• 2014 – Ben Martin: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 2 ahead.
• 2013 – Webb Simpson: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 4 ahead, Round 3: 4 ahead.
• 2012 – Ryan Moore: Round 1: 1 ahead, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: level.
• 2011 – Kevin Na: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: level, Round 3: level.
• 2010 – Jonathan Byrd: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 1 back.

Incoming Form of Shriners Open winners since 2010:

• Sungjae Im: 31st Sanderson/23rd Tour/3rd BMW/ 16th Northern Trust.
• Martin Laird: 28th Sanderson/65th Corales/MC Safeway/ MC Lincoln Land.
• Kevin Na: MC Safeway/14th Greenbrier/77th Northern Trust/ 43rd WGC St Jude.
• Bryson DeChambeau: 19th Tour/19th BMW/1st Dell Tech/1st Northern Trust.
• Patrick Cantlay: 15th HSBC/20th Tour/9th BMW/13th Dell Tech.
• Rod Pampling: 42nd Sanderson/MC Safeway/12th Nationwide Children’s/24th Boise.
• Smylie Kaufman: 10th Fry’s Open/MC web.com TC/MC Nationwide Children’s/43rd Small Bus.
• Ben Martin: MC Fry’s Open/MC Deutsche/46th Barclays/MC PGA.
• Webb Simpson: 4th Tour/24th BMW/53rd Deutsche/15th Barclays.
• Ryan Moore: 3rd Tour/10th BMW/10th Deutsche/24th Barclays.
• Kevin Na: MC Deutsche/MC Barclays/10th PGA/25th Reno.
• Jonathan Byrd: 30th Fry’s Open/66th McGladrey/5th Viking/56th Barclays.

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2014. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

• 2021 – Sung Kang – AM Wave -10/61 – 175/1
• 2020 – Bryson DeChambeau – AM Wave -9/62 – 20/1
• 2019 – Nick Taylor – AM Wave -8/63 – 125/1
• 2018 – Uihlein – AM Wave -8/63 – 90/1
• 2017 – Whee Kim – AM Wave -6/65 – 100/1
• 2016 – Pampling – AM Wave -11/60 – 250/1
• 2015 – Aldridge, Hearn, Hubbard, Thompson – 3 AM / 1 PM wave split -7 64.
• 2014 – Cink, Laird – both AM Wave -7/64.
• 2013 – J.J. Henry – AM Wave -11/60.
• 2012 – Ryan Moore – AM Wave -10/61
• 2011 – McGirt, Vegas – both PM Wave – 8/63.
• 2010 – Garrigus, Mackenzie, Senden, Tringale – equal AM/PM wave split -7/64.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 5 – Patrick Cantlay.
• 4 – Jason Day.
• 3 – Ryan Moore, Matt Kuchar.
• 2 – Stewart Cink, Jason Dufner, Rickie Fowler, Brian Harman, Chris Kirk, Martin Laird, K.H. Lee, Troy Merritt.
• 1 –  Cameron Champ, Dylan Frittelli, Jim Herman, Charley Hoffman, Max Homa, Sungjae Im, Michael Kim, Russell Knox, Danny Lee, David Lingmerth, Ben Martin, Trey Mullinax, J.T. Poston, Seamus Power, Chez Reavie, Rory Sabbatini, Kyle Stanley, Kevin Streelman, Michael Thompson, Brendon Todd, Nick Watney.

Course experience here is an important factor, but course debutants shouldn’t be overlooked either. George McNeill (2007), Marc Turnesa (2008), Smylie Kaufman (2015) and Patrick Cantlay (2018) all won this tournament on debut across the past 15 renewals. Indeed, since 2011, Tommy Gainey (3rd), Jonas Blixt (3rd), Ryo Ishikawa (2nd), Luke Guthrie (5th), Chesson Hadley (5th), Patton Kizzire (2nd), Brett Stegmaier (2nd), Francesco Molinari (4th), Beau Hossler (7th), Will Zalatoris (5th), Hayden Buckley (8th) and Harry Hall (8th) have all finished in the each-way places on course debut. Guthrie, Hadley, Kaufman, Hossler, Kizzire, Stegmaier, Zalatoris and Buckley were all new Korn Ferry Tour rookies.

Other trends are difficult to highlight. Winners across 2011 to 2014 from an Official Golf World Ranking perspective ranked 88th (Martin), 20th (Simpson), 44th (Moore) and 76th (Na). Remember a place in the top 50 by close of the year is a really huge deal, especially for those players who didn’t qualify for the Tour Championship. 2015/16 saw Smylie Kaufman at 226th and Rod Pampling at 451st in the OWGR came from left-field, but 2017 again saw a motivated and classy sort in Patrick Cantlay win his first PGA Tour event here. He was 69th in the OWGR, up an amazing 1,355 spots across the calendar year. 2018 saw Bryson DeChambeau capture his 4th win in 12 tournament appearances following on from The Memorial Tournament, The Northern Trust and the Dell Technologies Championship – as he captured this at 14/1 on his first appearance of the new season. He had made 2 appearances at TPC Summerlin with a best finish of 7th.

In 2019 we went back to the OWGR angle with Kevin Na. Kevin was ranked 40th when winning this 36 months ago. He’d already won in 2019 at Colonial, securing passage to The Masters and the Tournament of Champions, but had missed out on the Tour Championship, so remaining in the World’s top 50 was important as it secured all Major and WGCs spots for the following year. 2020 saw another big price left-field winner in the form of Martin Laird who was 351st in the OWGR arriving in Las Vegas. A past Shriners Open champion (2009), Martin had also finished 2nd (2010) when defending and had contended in 2014, 2018 and 2019, before falling back over the weekend. A desert golf specialist he had finished 28th the week before in Mississippi, his best result since returning from a knee injury 4 tournament appearances earlier. Last year saw another elite player win in the form Sungjae Im, who picked up only his 2nd PGA Tour title here in Las Vegas. He had qualified for the Tour Championship, but took the opportunity to end an 18 month winless drought at a course where from 2 previous appearances he had finished in the top 15 both times.

My selections are as follows:

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 16:30BST 3.10.22, but are naturally subject to fluctuation.