US Open Longshots 2026

Of those players who made the 15-man shortlist on the analysis I presented in our US Open Research Podcast, Alex Smalley is the only player who’s currently rated as a 3-figure chance and I’m quite happy to back him accordingly.

With 2^nd at last month’s US PGA Championship by far the best performance that the 29 year-old has produced at the Majors, perhaps he can continue the narrative of first-time Major winners by going one better this week.

Alex, who was born in Rochester, New York before his family moved to North Carolina, had shown some strong form before that effort at Aronimink, finishing runner-up at the Zurich Classic alongside Hayden Springer, before recording 7^th and 17^th place finishes in strong company at Doral and Quail Hollow respectively. 3^rd at  Colonial followed his effort at the PGA Championship and for me there’s been too much of an over-reaction to his missed cut at Muirfield Village last time out and he could bounce back to contending form this week.

4^th at the Coore & Crenshaw renovation at Yokohama Country Club for last year’s Baycurrent Classic ticks another box, as does 3^rd two starts later at the coastal affair that is the Butterfield Bermuda Championship in what was otherwise a poor run of form. With his most recent effort excepted, we can’t say the same about his overall state of game right now.

Of the longer-priced players who featured heavily the last time we visited Shinnecock Hills, Dustin Johnson interests me the most.

24 PGA Tour wins including 2 Majors is a record that simply can’t be sniffed at, nor can a further 21 Major top-10 finishes to accompany those wins at the 2016 US Open and 2020 Masters, one of which was here when he finished 3^rd behind Brooks Koepka here on Long Island back in 2018.

DJ was one of the first high-profile players to switch to LIV back in 2022 and although three wins have followed on that circuit, those victories came relatively early on in his tenure and his form on both LIV and in the Majors has tailed off since.

2025 was poor by his previously high standards, and 2026 didn’t appear to be going much better until he finished 4^th at LIV Golf Korea at the end of May before finishing 5^th at Valderrama last time out after a slow start. Nobody outscored the 41 year-old over the weekend of either event and confidence must be starting to flow through his game once again as his form picks up.

Johnson is twice a winner at the Coore & Crenshaw-design Kapalua, including the wind-affected 2013 renewal which was reduced to 54 holes as well as an 8-shot romp in 2018. He’s also contended at multiple Open Championships over the years to suggest he’s quite comfortable on linksy terrain and I think there are far worse bets out there this week at triple digits.

Finally, I’ll also take a punt on Lucas Herbert making the frame this week in a windy renewal which might just play to his strengths.

Having won three times on the DP World Tour and once on the PGA Tour between 2020 and 2023, the Australian took up an offer to join LIV Golf at the start of the 2024 where he’s plied his trade ever since. Low level wins at the 2024 New South Wales Open and 2025 International Series Japan kept the trophy cabinet ticking over until he finally broke through on LIV last month in Virginia, beating Sergio Garcia by 4 strokes at Trump National.

Finishes of 8^th in Korea and 24^th at Valderrama have followed since his victory last month, however that’s far from disastrous and he heads here with enough hints from his earlier wins to suggest he might like what he sees. His 2020 Dubai Desert Classic win came in a tough renewal where windy conditions and penal rough kept the winning score down to 9-under par. His victory at the following year’s Butterfield Bermuda Championship wasn’t dissimilar either as he battled strong winds to beat Patrick Reed and Danny Lee by a stroke, and the promise of tricky conditions this week could bring the 30 year-old to the fore once again.

Herbert made his Major Championship debut here at Shinnecock back in 2018 where he missed the cut in what can only be described as a baptism of fire, however 8 years later he’s a lot wiser and a far better player as he tackles this brutal track for a second time.