WGC Workday Championship At The Concession Tips

Any elite event throws up a plethora of questions, particularly when it comes to the top of the market, and a new venue on top of that muddies the already murky waters even further.

Dustin Johnson heads the betting here of course, however 1-over for the 23 holes he completed at Riviera on Sunday, from a position you’d expect the World No.1 to make a far better fist of, raises doubts that shouldn’t be present for a general 6/1 chance. Jon Rahm’s admission that he’s still getting to grips with his Calloway switch is the only real reason I can’t back him here at a just a few points longer, however I wouldn’t be remotely surprised to see either in the upper echelons of the leaderboard on Sunday.

Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and Bryson Dechambeau each produced wholly uninspiring performances last week, whereas Patrick Cantlay’s putter misfired too regularly from short range to trust on a course that’s likely to demand a far more solid performance on and around the greens.

Xander Schauffele and Tony Finau are so often bridesmaids when the final scores are totted up that the outright market is far less attractive than it should be for the pair, however one player who can get over the line when the situation demands is defending champion Patrick Reed and he headlines my team this week.

Returning as the man to beat from last year often presents its own challenges in terms of media commitments and pressure of expectation, however the former Masters champion has thicker skin than most on Tour which makes defending far less of a consideration in my view. Seldom far from controversy, he’s needed that thick skin more than he perhaps should have in the past – and he’ll perennially split opinion and have his detractors, that’s for sure – however from a betting perspective that lack of popularity can often boost his price and in my view he’s backable here.

If this course plays tough as is expected, with the main challenge on and around the greens, then there are few in the game currently who have the touch that Reed possesses and Houdini-like ability to get up and down with such regularity from the most challenging of situations. That facet to his game was evident once again at Torrey Pines – controversy aside – as he managed to win the tournament despite ranking a lowly 63^rd for Greens In Regulation from those making the weekend. 1^st for SG Around The Green and 1^st for Putting Average go a long way to explaining how that happened, and if he’s going to defend successfully here this week then it will be through a similar approach in all likelihood.

Despite the change in venue for this WGC this year, the one constant is the creativity required on the undulating putting surfaces and you can of course add Reed’s Augusta success to the list of comparable courses in that respect. Positive Jack Nicklaus course form in the shape of his 2014 Humana Challenge win ticks another box and 4 PGA Tour wins on Bermudagrass greens over the years offers further encouragement.

A low-key 66^th place finish in Saudi Arabia on his last start is of little concern to me and Captain America will arrive here rested with many of his peers having toiled around Riviera for the past few days. RESULT: T9

4 wins in Tyrell Hatton’s last 22 starts globally and a career-high of 5^th in the OWGR explains why the Englishman is now firmly entrenched at the top end of the bookies’ list each week, however that’s a fair reflection of his chances whenever he tees it up nowadays.

Let’s face facts: his Ryder Cup place isn’t in any doubt after securing his 4^th Rolex Series career victory in Abu Dhabi last month. He can now play with the freedom that he deserves for the remainder of the year, while others toil over the remaining automatic places, allowing the 29 year-old to enjoy his golf. In fact, enjoyment might be the key phrase here from an increasingly assured and calm(er) player on the course whose next career target is surely to win a WGC or indeed a Major Championship.

After that Abu Dhabi success last month, 22^nd in Dubai began with a disastrous round of 76 and Tyrrell of old may have thrown all of his toys out the pram at that point, however a 2^nd round 64 briefly threatened to see him get back in the mix and goes a long way to demonstrate his growing maturity. 6^th in Saudi in an excellent field was also encouraging and featured his third consecutive top-12 SG Tee-to-Green ranking and with a little rest and recuperation since then he can pick up where he left off here this week.

On the PGA Tour, Hatton is still at a disadvantage experience-wise most weeks, so this week’s new venue levels the playing field somewhat and a return to Florida, where he got his breakthrough win at this level last year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational on TifEagle greens, has got to be a positive.

5^th for Proximity to hole, 11^th for SG Approach and 3^rd for 3-putt avoidance are all useful season-long stats for this week in my view and with 5 Major top-10 finishes and 3 top-10s at this WGC in Mexico from his last 4 attempts, another contending performance may well be on the cards this week. RESULT: T22

A 15-under total at The Masters in November for Cameron Smith would have been good enough to win all but 5 of the event’s 84 editions over the years, however the Australian was unlucky enough to run into an inspired Dustin Johnson who lapped the field in the end. 4 rounds in the 60s was a Masters record though and Smith was understandably pleased with his performance. “I’d take 15 under around here the rest of my career and I might win a couple,” was his summary, and I’d suggest that he might win more than a couple at that rate, should he ever repeat the feat.

Not that his performance that week should have been a complete shock of course, having finished 5^th at Augusta in 2018 and coming off of a 4^th place finish at the Zozo Championship on his previous start, and the 27 year-old is fast becoming a backable option in elite company. Last week was another case in point, where a solid final round of 67 pushed him into a tie for 4^th place overall and with this week’s field taking another step forward in terms of strength, he’s remained at a backable price despite that notable effort.

You can add 4^th at the 2015 US Open, 5^th at the WGC Match Play in 2018 and 6^th in this corresponding fixture in 2019 at the WGC Mexico Championship for more elite-level performances from Smith, however what I like most is that his best performances – and victories – have tended to come in short, sharp bursts of form which makes last week’s effort even more intriguing.

Cameron’s breakthrough win on the European Tour at the Australian PGA Championship in 2017 came after finishing 4^th the week before at the Australian Open. Back-to-back 3^rd place finishes in the FedEx Cup Playoffs is further high-quality evidence from the latter end of 2018, before he defended his aforementioned Australian PGA after finishing 10^th the week before, again at the Australian Open.

His maiden PGA Tour victory came last year at the Sony Open in Hawaii, having finished 10^th on his previous start, and I’ve already mentioned that his Augusta effort come off the back of a 4^th place finish on his prior outing. When he’s hot, he’s hot.

The thing with Cam is that his touch on and around the greens is superb, so when he finds something in his long game he’s very dangerous. 13^th for SG Off The Tee, 10^th for SG Approach and 2^nd for SG Tee to Green last week at Riviera tells us everything we need to know and I think he has a strong chance here this week, despite residing a little further down the betting. RESULT: T11

With such a high-class field, if one of the longer-priced players is to make the frame and potentially reward each-way backers then they’re going to need to be pretty special. Of those in attendance this week, one who I think will continue to progress this year after an outstanding 2020 is Christiaan Bezuidenhout and he has the touch on and around the greens to outperform his odds.

One of the South African’s immediate goals is to make it onto the PGA Tour full time, and save for the pandemic causing last year’s Players Championship to be cancelled after just 18 holes he may have already achieved that milestone. Perhaps that was a blessing in disguise though as the hole left in the schedule last year allowed Christiaan and his coach the time to get back to basics and work on his long game, an area of his game that was sometimes the weak link in an otherwise outstanding game.

The results were clear to see – 2 late-season wins on the European Tour saw his ball-striking reach dizzy new heights, with his 5-shot win at the South African Open seeing him rank 1^st for SG Approach and 2^nd for SG Tee-To-Green. Coupled with his success the previous week at Leopard Creek, where he ranked 2^nd for SG Putting on the new Bermuda greens, that made it a total of 4 global wins in 33 starts at the time.

12^th, 22^nd and 53^rd in the Middle East to start his year showed some promise without seriously threatening another win, however with this week’s WGC is a bigger prize in the context of his career and the 26 year-old now knows that he’s capable of competing with the best players in the game.

29^th in this corresponding WGC in Mexico 12 months ago was a fair effort seeing as he’d flown directly from South Africa following a win at the Dimension Data Pro Am, and in his 2 other WGC starts he’s sat in 10^th place heading into the final day on both occasions, most recently at the WGC St Jude Invitational last summer. As with Hatton, this week’s venue presents Bezuidenhout with less of a disadvantage than more established tracks on the circuit and if he can keep his long game improvement going and produce some of his best stuff on and around the greens, he could be a serious dark horse here. RESULT: T32