Course Guide: The Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club is just outside of Japan’s sprawling capital Tokyo. Set to east of the planet’s biggest city near Chiba, Narashino CC has 3 full sets of 18 holes, namely the King, Kuko and Queen courses.
The ZOZO Championship this week will play a composite layout on what is a typical Japanese course. Parkland in nature, the course is tree-lined, featuring plenty of doglegs and small putting surfaces. Another Japanese golf course design feature is that many of the holes at Narashino feature 2 greens. ZOZO like to utilise this for the tournament, with different greens used across different days, and this will be a feature on the par-4 4th hole.
Narashino Country Club, Chiba, Japan: Designer: Kinya Fujita 1976, with PGA Tour (2016-19) renovations; Course Type: Parkland, Mid-Score; Par: 70; Length: 7,041 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 4; Fairways: Zoysiagrass; Rough: Zoysiagrass 2″; Greens: Bentgrass; Tournament Stimp: 10.5ft. Scoring Average: 2019: 69.52 (-0.48), Course Difficulty 15 of 41 courses.
Course Overview: The Narashino Country Club will provide a typically Japanese test this week, as we saw back in 2019. A short Par 70 at 7,041 yards, the course is instantly different based upon its 34 front / 36 back format. The composite course is composed of 5 par-3s, 10 par-4s and 3 par-5s. Not your typical Par 70 then. The par-5s come in at 587 yards (6th) and 608 yards (14th) and 562 yards (18th), so in essence the 6th and 18th are reachable in theory to the longer hitters.
Another fascinating angle here at Narashino are the 10 par-4s, which are distinctly either short or punishingly long. I personally can’t recall a course where none of the par-4s measure between 426 yards and 485 yards, but this is exactly what we see here. Instead there are 5 holes which at sub-425 yards provide excellent birdie opportunities, versus the other 50% which measure 505 yards (4th), 486 yards (9th), 486 yards (11th), 490 yards (12th) and 491 yards (17th). Hit a poor tee shot and players are going to severely struggle for par on these holes.
The course itself is undulating and set in beautiful Japanese parkland. A tree-lined venue, lines off the tee look moderately claustrophobic. Players in 2019 referenced Chapultepec where the WGC-Mexico Championship from 2017 to 2020 was hosted. There are 6 doglegs to add character, but in general the rough is little real penalty. Putting surfaces are small in size, well defended by bunkers and feature Bentgrass. Green complexes are also contoured, making target areas very small for approach shots.
Narashino Country Club also features Zoysiagrass fairways and rough. Zoysiagrass is a relative rarity on the PGA Tour. Think TPC Southwind (WGC St Jude Invitational and before that the St Jude Classic) and East Lake (Tour Championship) as the regular PGA Tour stop offs featuring this kind of grass, which is renowned for its springy nature. The AT&T Byron Nelson played at both Trinity Forest (2018/19) and TPC Craig Ranch (2021) have also featured Zoysiagrass. Plenty of professionals claim it promotes flyers, whilst others like the way the ball tends to sit-up on it. Either way, it’s another research angle to attack.
The final unique, to the PGA Tour anyway, aspect we find at Narashino are the twin greens. This is a typical aspect of Japanese golf course design, with A and B greens, many featuring different grasses, so that foot traffic is managed over a golf season. For the ZOZO, the par-4 4th hole which is +500 yards will see 2 greens in operation across the tournament. For the rest of the course, if approaches land on the non-used greens surfaces, there will be a free drop on the nearest point of relief.
Winners: Hosted at Sherwood CC: 2020: Patrick Cantlay (-23); Hosted at Narashino CC: 2019: Tiger Woods (-19).
Lead Score Progression:
- 2019: Round 1 -6; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -16; Round 4 -18.
Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.
Published Predictor Model: Our published predictor is available here.
You can build your own model using the variables listed on the left hand side. Top 10 of my published predictor are Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, Rickie Fowler, Collin Morikawa, Emiliano Grillo, Charley Hoffman, Tommy Fleetwood, Keegan Bradley, Jhonattan Vegas and Chris Kirk.
Winners & Prices: 2020: Cantlay 28/1; 2019: Woods 33/1.
Historical Weather: 2019: Thursday: Cloudy. High of 69. Wind ENE 10-15 mph. Friday: The start of the second round was postponed on Friday due to intense rains and thunderstorms. The nearest reporting station measured 9.79 inches of rain on Friday. Saturday: Sunny. High of 72. Wind NNW 4-8 mph. Preferred lies were in effect for the second round. For safety reason, spectators were not permitted to be on site for the second round. Sunday: Cloudy. High of 72. Wind N 5-10 mph. The third round began at 6:30am on Sunday, with players in groups of three starting of tees 1 and 10. Final-round tee times ran from 12:00pm – 2:00pm – Monday finish. Monday: Mostly Cloudy. High of 60. Wind NNE 5-10 mph.
Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Chiba, Japan is here.
Many will remember this tournament for 3 reasons from 2019. Tiger Woods was victorious, the fantastic Japanese crowd, and more than 6 inches (152 mm) of rain from tropical storm Bualoi, which wiped out Friday play. 2021 thankfully looks far calmer but colder. Temperatures as low as 13 degrees Celsius on Friday aren’t what the PGA Tour pros are used to – with nothing warmer than 19 degrees Celsius expected. Wind will be mild breezes at most and I’m expecting a lush, soft course throughout.
Player Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the BMW Championship / Omega European Masters which includes PGA Tour and European Tour events. Players’ rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:
- Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Jhonattan Vegas; 2) Emiliano Grillo; 3) Maverick McNealy; 4) Matt Jones; 5) Xander Schauffele; 6) K.H. Lee; 7) Si Woo Kim / Erik van Rooyen / Will Zalatoris; 10) Luke List; 11) Ryan Palmer; 12) Hideki Matsuyama / Collin Morikawa; 14) Rickie Fowler; 15) Brendan Steele; 16) Alex Noren; 17) Carlos Ortiz; 18) Harry Higgs; 19) Joaquin Niemann; 20) Tommy Fleetwood; 21) Chris Kirk; 22) Keegan Bradley; 23) Wyndham Clark; 24) Troy Merritt; 25) James Hahn / Roger Sloan.
- Top 25 SG Approach: 1) C.T. Pan; 2) Collin Morikawa; 3)Xander Schauffele; 4) Jhonattan Vegas; 5) Tom Hoge; 6) Chris Kirk; 7) Hideki Matsuyama; 8) Carlos Ortiz; 9) Matthew NeSmith / Joaquin Niemann; 11) Peter Malnati / Adam Schenk / Will Zalatoris; 14) Tommy Fleetwood; 15) K.H. Lee; 16) Henrik Norlander; 17) Keegan Bradley / Erik van Rooyen; 19) Luke List; 20) Kyle Stanley; 21) Doug Ghim / Matt Jones; 23) Emiliano Grillo / James Hahn / Sung Kang / Cameron Tringale.
- Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Henrik Norlander; 2) Tommy Fleetwood / Chris Kirk; 4) Matt Jones / Alex Noren; 6) Harry Higgs / Hideki Matsuyama; 8) Rickie Fowler / Mackenzie Hughes / Joaquin Niemann / Xander Schauffele; 12) Roger Sloan; 13) Collin Morikawa; 14) Charley Hoffman; 15) Jhonattan Vegas; 16) Maverick McNealy; 17) Tom Hoge / Peter Malnati; 19) Brendan Grace; 20) Cameron Tringale; 21) K.H. Lee / Brendan Steele; 23) Bill Haas / Luke List / Ryan Palmer.
- Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Tommy Fleetwood; 2) C.T. Pan / Jhonattan Vegas; 4) Chris Kirk / Xander Schauffele; 6) K.H. Lee / Henrik Norlander; 8) Collin Morikawa; 9) Luke List / Hideki Matsuyama; 11) Will Zalatoris; 12) Matt Jones; 13) Joaquin Niemann; 14) Tom Hoge; 15) Maverick McNealy / Alex Noren; 17) Rickie Fowler; 18) Peter Malnati; 19) Emiliano Grillo / Si Woo Kim; 21) James Hahn; 22) Carlos Ortiz; 23) Charley Hoffman; 24) Erik van Rooyen; 25) Harry Higgs.
- Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Mackenzie Hughes; 2) C.T. Pan; 3) Brendon Todd; 4) Adam Long; 5) Alex Noren; 6) Xander Schauffele; 7) Collin Morikawa; 8) Cameron Tringale; 9) Troy Merritt / Adam Schenk / Robert Streb; 12) Sung Kang / Jhonattan Vegas; 14) Harry Higgs; 15) Joaquin Niemann; 16) Erik van Rooyen; 17) Lanto Griffin; 18) Brendan Steele; 19) Tommy Fleetwood; 20) Tyler McCumber; 21) Branden Grace / K.H. Lee; 23) Rickie Fowler / Maverick McNealy; 25) Keegan Bradley / Charley Hoffman.
- Top 25 SG Total: 1) C.T. Pan; 2) Tommy Fleetwood; 3) Xander Schauffele; 4) Jhonattan Vegas; 5) Alex Noren; 6) Rickie Fowler; 7) Collin Morikawa; 8) Chris Kirk; 9) Matt Jones / K.H. Lee; 11) Joaquin Niemann; 12) Mackenzie Hughes; 13) Harry Higgs; 14) Brendan Steele; 15) Maverick McNealy; 16) Adam Schenk / Will Zalatoris; 18) Tom Hoge / Charley Hoffman / Troy Merritt; 21) Cameron Tringale; 22) Erik van Rooyen; 23) Si Woo Kim / Emiliano Grillo; 25) Hideki Matsuyama.
Traditional Skill Set Trends: Analysing the final stats of 2019 ZOZO Championship top 2 finishers gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test – worthy of note that driving distance was not captured:
- 1st, Tiger Woods (-19). 65.4% fairways (7th), 76.4% greens in regulation (3rd), 64.7% scrambling (26th), 1.64 putts per GIR (2nd).
- 2nd, Hideki Matsuyama (-16). 57.7% fairways (29th), 75.0% greens in regulation (7th), 66.7% scrambling (19th), 1.63 putts per GIR (1st).
So let’s take a view from players as to how Narashino Country Club sets up and what skill sets the course favours:
Tiger Woods (2019):”This grass, Zoysia, man, you can get some serious flyers out here, monster flyers. The one I hit on the last hole, we were trying to hit an 8-iron 200 yards and hit it 200. That’s not something I normally do.”
Rory McIlroy (2019):” I feel like it’s either you have like there’s a lot of short par 4s, under 400 yards but then there’s a lot of par 4s that are between 490 and sort of 510. So you’ve got some real tough par 4s, you’ve got par 4s you can score on. The par 3s, two of the par 3s you can, they’re short irons and then a couple of the par 3s are longer. I think the golf course has got a lot of variety.
There’s quite a few wedges into par 4s but then there’s a couple holes today that I hit a 4 and a 5-iron into them. I guess there’s a stretch on the back nine which is pretty tough as well. But it’s a great course. It’s in great condition, the greens are so pure, and it sort of reminds me a little bit of the course we play in Mexico, Chapultepec. Reminds me a little bit of that, just sort of the tree lined and sort of the doglegs and having to sort of cut off corners and stuff, but I like it.
Played pretty well, but the setup of the golf course this afternoon was really tough. The pins were all tucked away, they were on little slopes, sort of found it hard to get close to the holes. You’re hitting it to 20 feet, it’s hard to hole putts on those greens because they’re so slopey and you’re having to give them two or three feet of break every time.”
Collin Morikawa (2019): “It’s very different than what I’ve seen before, especially on the PGA Tour this last summer. It’s a lot more narrow, the fairways are a lot smaller as compared to last week. What freaked me out was the double greens. I was a little surprised, I thought I was hitting one green but turns out the hole was on another one. But I loved it. The greens are amazing. Obviously with the rain it’s going to be pretty soft. Hitting these small greens and getting off the tee in the fairway, will be the keys this week.”
Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for the last 2 ZOZO winners:
- 2020 – Patrick Cantlay: Round 1: 9th, Round 2: 4th, Round 3: 4th.
- 2019 – Tiger Woods: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
Shots From the Lead: Below are the last 2 winners and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament:
- 2020 – Patrick Cantlay: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 3 back.
- 2019 – Tiger Woods: Round 1: level, Round 2: 2 ahead, Round 3: 3 ahead.
Incoming form of winners since 2019:
- Patrick Cantlay: 38th CJ Cup/8th Shriners/43rd US Open/12th BMW.
- Tiger Woods: 37th BMW/WD Northern Trust/MC Open Champ/21st US Open.
First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score since 2019. For full first round leader stats click here.
- 2020 – Munoz -8/64 – 66/1
- 2019 – Woodland/Woods -9/63 – Both 45/1
For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Bentgrass green PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:
- 3 – Hideki Matsuyama.
- 2 – Keegan Bradley, Rickie Fowler, Chris Kirk, Troy Merritt, Xander Schauffele, Jhonattan Vegas.
- 1 – Bill Haas, Charley Hoffman, K.H. Lee, Joaquin Niemann, Kyle Stanley, Brendon Todd.
To this point, we’ve had 2 winners of the ZOZO Championship. Pre-Covid pandemic, the inaugural ZOZO held here at Narashino Country Club was won by Tiger Woods. He was a 33/1 chance. Inactive for 10 weeks, Tiger had relatively flat inbound from of 37/WD/MC/21 but naturally had won the 2019 Masters.
The 2020 ZOZO was held at Sherwood Country Club in California in the build-up to the November Masters. Patrick Cantlay won at 28/1. Cantlay was a non-winner in 2020 but had shown a little form following on from a disappointing FedEx Cup Playoff campaign, where he didn’t make the Tour Championship. 43rd at the U.S. Open was followed by 8th at the Shriners Open, where Patrick had led after 36 and 54 holes. 38th at the CJ Cup the week before was low-key, but Cantlay had closed with a promising -5/67.
Back in Japan in 2021, Narashino Country Club will be the host course again. It was the venue for the Suntory Open between 1973 and 1997. But there could well be an angle from 2016 which saw Prayad Marksaeng win the Japan Senior Open. The popular Thai player had won the 2008 Dunlop Phoenix Tournament hosted at the Phoenix Country Club in Japan, and was runner-up again there in 2017.
Carrying this Narashino / Phoenix Country Club line of enquiry forward to the 2019 ZOZO, winner Tiger Woods won the Dunlop Phoenix titles back in 2004 and 2005 and was runner-up there in 2006. Hideki Matsuyama finished runner-up in 2019, 3 shots back of Woods. His Phoenix Country Club record includes 2nd (2012), 6th (2013), 1st (2014), 2nd (2015), 5th (2017) and 8th (2019).
My selections are as follows:
ZOZO Championship – Featured Bookmaker:
