Course Overview: Royal Golf Club is a 7,347 yard par 72 desert course that some of you may vaguely recall from the 2011 Volvo Golf Champions held here, which was won by Paul Casey, before it began hosting this event two years ago.
A Colin Montgomerie design that was constructed in 2008, a renovation ahead of the inaugural event saw bunkers and greens rebuilt to adhere to current DP World Tour specification with the objective of improving the scope for fair pin positions and creating bigger, flatter putting surfaces.
The course itself is an exposed, desert affair with reasonably generous fairways leading to firm, well-bunkered greens. Water is in play towards the end of the round and although Paul Casey got to 20-under back in 2011, the general consensus was that this course would present a fairly stiff challenge whenever there’s a fairly stiff breeze blowing across it, as has been evident with 13- and 14-under winning totals over the past two years.
As part of the renovation, the Paspalum grass was removed from putting surfaces and kept alive while the work was undertaken then replaced afterwards. Flatter greens allow the course superintendent to increase stimp speeds, so I’m expecting fairly firm, fast surfaces once again this week.
An even 36/36 split with two par-5s on each half, the stretch from 9 through to 14 is the most scoreable with 3 of the par-5s, 2 short par-4s, and the track’s shortest par-3 featured in those 6 holes.
Tournament Stats. We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Bahrain Championship that will help to shape a view on players who may play well at this event.
As noted above, this is only the third renewal of this event with some very patchy stats available from various other tournaments held here at Royal GC, so course history needs to be considered accordingly: Current Form | Course Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Form/Course Stats.
Predictor Model. Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.
Course Winners: 2025: Laurie Canter -14 (22/1), 2024: Dylan Frittelli -13 (175/1), 2020: MENA Tour, David Hague (207 strokes, 3 rounds); 2019: MENA Tour, Robin Roussel (204 strokes, 3 rounds); 2011: Volvo Golf Champions (European Tour) Paul Casey (268 strokes, 4 rounds).
Weather Forecast. The latest weather forecast for Bahrain is here.
Thursday’s moderate (10-15mph) breeze is forecast to drop away as the tournament progresses, leaving perfect golfing conditions with sunny skies and temperatures heading towards the high 60s Fahrenheit.
Tournament Trends & Key Factors. We have traditional stats for the two winners of the Bahrain Championship over the past couple of years:
- 2025: Laurie Canter (-14); 306 yards (19th), 58.9% fairways (38th), 75% greens in regulation (13th), 88.9% scrambling (1st), 1.81 putts per GIR (50th)
- 2024: Dylan Frittelli (-13); 327 yards (3rd), 41.1% fairways (47th), 79.2% greens in regulation (4th), 73.3% scrambling (7th), 1.82 putts per GIR (39th)
The formula for success here has been quite consistent over the past two years with a bit of power off the tee combined with a high GIR game and strong scrambling the way forward.
The only other tangible data we have comes from the 2011 Volvo Golf Champions won by Paul Casey. Easier conditions 15 years ago due to lighter winds led to some different metrics:
- 1st: Paul Casey (-20); 303 yards (5th), 66.7% fairways (25th), 74.1% greens in regulation (52nd), 71.4% scrambling (17th), 1.65 putts per GIR (6th)
Strokes Gained: From a Strokes Gained perspective, long game metrics have dominated in the two renewals where performance has been measured. In both cases, SG Putting was far less important than most other events.
- 2025: Laurie Canter: T: 7th; A: 9th; T2G: 2nd; ATG: 8th; P: 51st
- 2024: Dylan Frittelli: T: 4th; A: 1st; T2G: 1st; ATG: 33rd; P: 31st
Key: T: SG Off the Tee; A; SG Approach; T2G: SG Tee to Green; ATG: SG Around the Green; P: SG Putting.
Incoming Form: It’s a real mixed bag in terms of incoming form for the course winners here. Dylan Frittelli’s form was indifferent at best and 41st and 70th from his two starts in the calendar year hardly signalled impending success. Last year’s winner Laurie Canter had finished 3rd at the Dubai Desert Classic a fortnight before though which was reflected in his price:
- Laurie Canter: MC/25/25/MC/17/MC/43/23/14/21/42/3
- Dylan Frittelli: MC/MC/56/MC/MC/MC/MC/12/MC/20/MC/41/70
Whilst Paul Casey’s win here in 2011 shows that a 20-under winning total is possible around these parts, the wind has kept a lid on scoring over the past two years. With the potential for slightly easier conditions this year perhaps we’ll see a deeper winning total once again this time around. Maximising strokes gained from off the tee looks to be key, as does hitting as many greens as possible over the four days to maximise birdie opportunities.
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