Genesis Invitational Tips 2026

 

The Genesis Invitational closes the 2026 West Coast Swing and sees another elite Signature event field with virtually all of last week’s cast travelling from Pebble Beach to Los Angeles. World Number 1 Scottie Scheffler heads them with Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, Chris Gotterup, Russell Henley, J.J. Spaun, Robert MacIntyre, Ben Griffin and Xander Schauffele all in the field. Indeed 19 of the top 20 in the OWGR are all present in Los Angeles this week. With the Genesis Invitational now organised by TGR Live (Tiger Woods Foundation), plus having Signature PGA Tour status, it’s no surprise to see such a stellar field attend Riviera Country Club.

Before we go into the detail surrounding The Genesis Invitational, we always have new visitors to Golf Betting System. Welcome and let me point you in the direction of our weekly Golf Betting System Podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), the Steve Bamford Golf Channel on YouTube and our hugely popular, +6,600 strong, private Group on Facebook – you can Join Here.

 2026 Golf Betting System Majors Competition sponsored by bet365

We’re giving you the opportunity to win in 2026 as we’re running our popular Majors Competition in association with bet365 who’ve put a total of £250 in cash up for grabs to the winners. The competition is in the form of a one-and-done, so all you need to do to enter is give us a single player for each of the 4 Majors – full details are here.

You can read Liam Williams’ Power Rankings for the Genesis Invitational at bet365 News.

Course Guide: Riviera is a stretching 7,322 yard, 35-36, Par 71 old-style golf course. Nicknamed ‘Hogan’s Alley’, it’s a classical course which features tight, uneven tree-lined fairways, plus fast green complexes that average 7,500 square feet and feature plenty of surrounding run-off areas for overly aggressive or wayward approach shots.

The course itself favours longer hitters, where finding fairways is extremely difficult – although the penalty tends to be the danger of blocked approach shots rather than thick, lush rough. The course features some of the deepest bunkers on Tour and fairway positioning is key as approach shots can be blocked by trees. Every season Riviera plays as one of the hardest courses to hit greens, and putting is difficult especially from 10 feet and in on the fast Poa Annua greens.

Riviera Country Club, Pacific Palisades, Los Angeles, California: Designer: Neville and George Thomas 1926 with Fazio re-design 2008; Course Type: Classical, Medium Length; Par: 71; Length: 7,383 yards; Holes with Water Hazards: 0; Number of Bunkers: 58; Acres of Fairway: 37; Fairways: Kikuyugrass; Rough: Kikuyugrass 2″; 7,500 sq.ft average featuring Poa Annua; Tournament Stimp: 12.5ft.

Course Scoring Average + PGA Tour Difficulty Rank:

• 2024: 70.10 (-0.90), Rank 19 of 51 courses
• 2023: 71.07 (+0.07), Rank 16 of 49 courses
• 2022: 70.46 (-0.71), Rank 21 of 50 courses
• 2021: 71.27 (+0.27), Rank 17 of 51 courses

Fairway Widths (yards): Below are the fairway widths for Riviera Country Club and how they compare to recent courses that we’ve seen on Tour:

• Riviera: Average 27 yards.
• Pebble Beach: Average 30-33 yards. Spyglass Hill: 25-30 yards.
• TPC Scottsdale: Average 38 yards.
• Torrey Pines South: Average 24-27 yards. Torrey Pines North: Average 24-27 yards.
• Pete Dye Stadium: Average 33 yards.
• Waialae: 250 yards from the tee: 34 yards wide; 275:32; 300:34; 325:37; 350:34.

Course Designer Links: For research purposes other Tom Fazio PGA Tour designs and re-designs include:

Tom Fazio

• Atunyote GC – Turning Stone Championship 2007-10.
• Caves Valley GC – BMW Championship2021 + 2025.
• Congaree GC – Palmetto Championship 2021 + CJ Cup 2022.
• Conway Farms GC – BMW Championship 2013, 2015, 2017.
• Corales GC – Corales Championship
• Eagle Point – Wells Fargo Championship 2017.
• Raptor Course Greyhawk GC – Fry’s.com Open 2008/09.
• Shadow Creek GC – CJ Cup 2020.
• The Summit Club – CJ Cup 2021.

Fazio has also had renovation input into:

• Riviera Country Club – Genesis Invitational.
• Merion – 2013 U.S. Open.
• Oakmont – 2016 U.S. Open.
• Quail Hollow – 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021 Wells Fargo Championship, 2017 + 2025 PGA Championship.
• Seaside Course at Sea Island – RSM Classic

Course Overview: Riviera CC is one of the most classical and undulating golf courses in the United States. It tests the all-round game of a player and undoubtedly takes time to master. Riviera and Torrey Pines are the only courses on Tour to feature Kikuyugrass fairways and rough. This may sound technical but be aware that West Coast California specialists, plus Australians and South Africans, have a distinct advantage playing on this.

Course experience is a real premium on this classical set-up which features a testing set of par-4s. It’s a course that can’t simply be overpowered, but the tournament as ever will be decided on the 12 looks at the par-5s. Most recent winners Merrick, Watson, Hahn, Watson again, Johnson, Watson again, Scott, Homa, Niemann, Rahm and Matsuyama shot -10 (-19/265), -11 (-11/273 winning total), -8 (-15/269), -6 (-6/278), -9 (-15/269), -7 (-17/267), -8 (-12/272), -5 (-11/273), -11(-12/272), -10 (-17/267) and -9 (-17/267) respectively on the par-5s. The only odd scoring performance away from this par-5 trend was J.B. Holmes (who else!) in 2019, who shot -6 -5 -3 across the par-3s, par-4s and par-5s.

With a host of dog-legs combined with 26 yard wide fairways at the 300 yard landing points, Riviera always ranks towards the top of the hardest fairways to hit on Tour. However with relatively low rough, the penalty for missing fairways is not a key factor this week on a course where getting close to the pin is tough even for players who hit the fairway. Getting the ball close here on approach is always very difficult, with Riviera traditionally ranking in the top 5 hardest for Proximity to Hole on the Tour.

Conditions-wise, Pacific Palisades received a lot of rain in January and February, so we might see conditions a tad on the greener side than we often do here. Expect the standard high-teens victory total in my opinion.

2026 will see an extended Riviera Country Club with 37 yards added to the par-3 4th hole, making it a brutish 273 yard single approach. The famous up-hill closing par-4 18th has also been extended by 24 yards, making this 499 yards on this week’s scorecard. In total, 61 yards have been added since we saw the course in 2024.

The Genesis Invitational Winners at Riviera: 2024: Hideki Matsuyama (-17); 2023: Jon Rahm (-17); 2022: Joaquin Niemann (-19); 2021: Max Homa (-12); 2020: Adam Scott (-11); 2019: J.B. Holmes (-14); 2018: Bubba Watson (-12); 2017: Dustin Johnson (-17); 2016: Bubba Watson (-15); 2015: James Hahn (-6); 2014: Bubba Watson (-15); 2013: John Merrick (-11); 2012: Bill Haas (-7); 2011: Aaron Baddeley (-12); 2010: Steve Stricker (-16).

• 2024: Hideki Matsuyama 69-68-68-62 -17/267
• 2023: Jon Rahm 65-68-65-69 -17/267
• 2022: Joaquin Niemann 63-63-68-71 -19/265
• 2021: Max Homa 66-70-70-66 -12/272
• 2020: Adam Scott 72-64-67-70 -11/273
• 2019: J.B. Holmes 63-69-68-70 -14/270
• 2018: Bubba Watson 68-70-65-69 -12/272
• 2017: Dustin Johnson 63-69-68-70 -14/270

OWGR of Genesis Invitational Winners at Riviera: 2024: Matsuyama 46; 2023: Rahm 3; 2022: Niemann 32; 2021: Homa 91; 2020: Scott 14; 2019: Holmes 100; 2018: Watson 117; 2017: Johnson 3.

Datagolf Ranking of Genesis Invitational Winners at Riviera: 2024: Matsuyama 65; 2023: Rahm 1; 2022: Niemann 30; 2021: Homa 50.

Cut Line: 2025: +4 (Torrey Pines); 2024: +1; 2023: E; 2022: -2; 2021: -3; 2020: -1; 2019: -1; 2018: -1; 2017: -1.

Lead Score Progression – Riviera Country Club:

• 2024: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -13; Round 3 -14; Round 4 -17.
• 2023: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -10; Round 3 -15; Round 4 -17.
• 2022: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -16; Round 3 -19; Round 4 -19.
• 2021: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -12; Round 3 -9; Round 4 -12.
• 2020: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -9; Round 3 -10; Round 4 -11.
• 2019: Round 1 -8; Round 2 -11; Round 3 -16; Round 4 -14.
• 2018: Round 1 -5; Round 2 -7; Round 3 -10; Round 4 -12.
• 2017: Round 1 -7; Round 2 -10; Round 3 -17; Round 4 -17.

Path to Victory: Below are the end of round positions for Genesis Invitational winners at Riviera since 2010:

• 2024 – Hideki Matsuyama: Round 1: 15th, Round 2: 9th, Round 3: 7th.
• 2023 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: 3rd, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2022 – Joaquin Niemann: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2021 – Max Homa: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 6th, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2020 – Adam Scott: Round 1: 15th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2019 – J.B. Holmes: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2018 – Bubba Watson: Round 1: 6th, Round 2: 6th, Round 3: 1st.
• 2017 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 1st, Round 3: 1st.
• 2016 – Bubba Watson: Round 1: 2nd, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2015 – James Hahn: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 11th, Round 3: 7th.
• 2014 – Bubba Watson: Round 1: 35th, Round 2: 40th, Round 3: 6th.
• 2013 – John Merrick: Round 1: 7th, Round 2: 3rd, Round 3: 2nd.
• 2012 – Bill Haas: Round 1: 36th, Round 2: 11th, Round 3: 6th.
• 2011 – Aaron Baddeley: Round 1: 1st, Round 2: 2nd, Round 3: 1st.
• 2010 – Steve Stricker: Round 1: 6th, Round 2 2nd, Round 3: 1st.

Shots From the Lead: Below are Genesis Invitational winners at Riviera and where they were positioned in terms of shots from the lead during the tournament since 2010:

• 2024 – Hideki Matsuyama: Round 1: 5 back, Round 2: 8 back, Round 3: 6 back.
• 2023 – Jon Rahm: Round 1: 1 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 3 ahead.
• 2022 – Joaquin Niemann: Round 1: 3 ahead, Round 2: 2 ahead, Round 3: 3 ahead.
• 2021 – Max Homa: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 6 back, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2020 – Adam Scott: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
• 2019 – J.B. Holmes: Round 1: 1 ahead, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 4 back.
• 2018 – Bubba Watson: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
• 2017 – Dustin Johnson: Round 1: 2 back, Round 2: 1 ahead, Round 3: 5 ahead.
• 2016 – Bubba Watson: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
• 2015 – James Hahn: Round 1: Level, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 4 back.
• 2014 – Bubba Watson: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 8 back, Round 3: 4 back.
• 2013 – John Merrick: Round 1: 4 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 3 back.
• 2012 – Bill Haas: Round 1: 6 back, Round 2: 4 back, Round 3: 2 back.
• 2011 – Aaron Baddeley: Round 1: Level, Round 2: 2 back, Round 3: 1 ahead.
• 2010 – Steve Stricker: Round 1: 3 back, Round 2: 1 back, Round 3: 6 ahead.

Incoming Form of Genesis Invitational winners at Riviera since 2010:

• Hideki Matsuyama: 22nd TPC Scottsdale/71st Pebble/13th Torrey/30th Waialae.
• Jon Rahm: 3rd TPC Scottsdale/7th Torrey 1st PGA West /1st Kapalua.
• Joaquin Niemann: 8th Saudi/6th Torrey/MC RSM Classic/MC Houston.
• Max Homa: 7th Pebble/42nd TPC Scottsdale/18th Torrey/21st PGA West.
• Adam Scott: 1st Aus PGA/MC Aus Open/11th WGC HSBC/33rd ZOZO.
• J.B. Holmes: MC Pebble/26th TPC Scottsdale/MC Torrey/48th Mayakoba.
• Bubba Watson: 35th Pebble/40th Torrey/MC PGA West/67th RSM Classic.
• Dustin Johnson: 3rd Pebble/MC Torrey/2nd Abu/6th Kapalua.
• Bubba Watson: MC Pebble Beach/14th TPC Scottsdale/10th Kapalua/1st World Challenge.
• James Hahn: 29th Pebble/41st Torrey/59th TPC Scottsdale/20th PGA West.
• Bubba Watson: 2nd TPC Scottsdale/23rd Torrey/30th Thailand/3rd World Challenge.
• John Merrick: 16th Pebble/57th TPC Scottsdale/MC Torrey/MC PGA West.
• Bill Haas: 19th TPC Scottsdale/4th Torrey/64th PGA West/20th Kapalua.
• Aaron Baddeley: 6th Pebble/37th TPC Scottsdale/MC Torrey/34th Waialae.
• Steve Stricker: 3rd Waialae/10th Kapalua/10th World Challenge/6th East Lake.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s event that are well worth a look. Naturally they’ll help to shape a view on players who could go well this week: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader | Combined Stats.

My published predictor is available here. Top 10 of my published predictor are: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Hideki Matsuyama, 3) Harris English; 4) Collin Morikawa; 5) Maverick McNealy; 6) Patrick Cantlay; 7) Tommy Fleetwood; 8) Max Homa; 9) Xander Schauffele; 10) Viktor Hovland.

Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.

The Genesis Invitational Winners at Riviera & Prices: 2024: Matsuyama 80/1; 2023: Rahm 15/2F; 2022: Niemann 75/1; 2021: Homa 60/1; 2020: Scott 33/1; 2019: Holmes 150/1; 2018: Watson 50/1; 2017: Johnson 9/1; 2016: Watson 25/1; 2015: Hahn 200/1; 2014: Watson 33/1; 2013: Merrick 250/1; 2012: Haas 50/1; 2011: Baddeley 100/1; 2010: Stricker 16/1. Past 5 Renewals Average: 51/1; Overall Average: 76/1. Overall Average: 41/1.

Historical Weather:

• 2024: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High of 63. Wind SW 8-13 mph. Friday: Partly cloudy. High of 63. Wind SW 7-12 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. High of 62. Wind SW 8-13 mph. Sunday:  Mostly cloudy. High of 61. Wind SSW 5-10 mph.
• 2023: Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High of 63. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Friday: Mostly Cloudy. High of 57. Wind NE 5-10 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 66. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Sunday:  Sunny. High of 65. Wind SW 6-12 mph.
• 2022: Thursday: Sunny and breezy. High of 69. Wind NW 5-10 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 71. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 67. Wind WSW 6-12 mph.
• 2021: Thursday: Sunny. High of 68. Wind NE 10-15 mph, with gusts to 20 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 65. Wind SW 6-12 mph. Saturday: High of 63. Wind NNW 15-20 mph, with gusts to 35 mph. Play was suspended at 10:08 a.m. due to inclement weather (high winds), with all but the last group having teed off. Play resumed at 2:02 p.m. for a total delay of 3 hours, 54 minutes. The third round was delayed due to darkness at 5:45 p.m. with 23 players yet to complete their round. Those players will be back in position at 6:50 a.m. Sunday, with final-round tee times scheduled to begin at approximately 8:30 – 10:30 a.m. off split tees. Sunday: Sunny. High of 72. Wind SW 10-15 mph.
• 2020: Thursday: Sunny, with a high of 64. Light SE wind in the morning, switching to SW wind at 5-9 mph in the afternoon. Friday: Sunny with a high of 65. Wind SW 4-7 mph with gusts up to 10 mph. Saturday: Sunny with a high of 65. Wind SW 5-9 mph with gusts up to 12 mph. Sunday:  Sunny with a high of 65. Wind SW 5-9 mph with gusts up to 12 mph.
• 2019: Thursday: Rain, with a high of 62. Wind SW at 15-25 mph, gusting to 30 mph. Weather caused a suspension of play at 7:30 a.m. Following the suspension of play, the weather rapidly deteriorated and officials announced that play would remain suspended until at least 1 p.m. and all first-round scores would be reset. After a seven-hour delay, the first round restarted at 1:40 p.m. and was suspended due to darkness at 5:34 p.m. Two inches of rain was recorded at Riviera between midnight Wednesday and the restart of round one. Friday: Clear in the morning with rain in the afternoon. High of 57. Wind WSW 10-18 mph. Saturday: Sunny, with a high of 62. Wind W at 10-20 mph. The second round resumed at 7:00 a.m. and was completed at 2:46 p.m. The third round began off both Nos. 1 and 10 tees at 3 p.m. and was suspended due to darkness at 5:45 p.m. Sunday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. High of 59. Wind W 15-25 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. The third-round resumed at 6:45 a.m. and was completed at 11:10 a.m.
• 2018: Thursday: Sunny. High of 67. Wind SW 5-10 mph. Friday: Sunny. High of 70. Wind SW 10 mph. Saturday: Sunny. High of 70. Wind S 5-10 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. High of 62. Wind SW 10-15 mph.
• 2017: Thursday: Partly cloudy, with a high of 64. Wind SW 7-12 mph. Friday: Due to inclement weather, round two was suspended for the day at 12:18 p.m. A total of 2.97 inches of rain fell from Friday morning to Saturday morning. Saturday: Scattered showers through early afternoon gave way to cloudy skies in the late afternoon. High of 61. Wind SSW 6-12 mph. Sunday: The third round resumed at 6:50 a.m. and was completed at 12:03 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high of 60. Wind SW 6-12 mph.
• 2016: Thursday: Early showers gave way to partly cloudy conditions in the morning before sunshine and mid-60 temperatures in the afternoon. Wind WSW at 8-16 mph. Friday: Mostly sunny and reasonably cool weather with temperatures moving into the mid-60s. Wind WSW at 6-12 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny and pleasant after a cool start with temperatures climbing to near 70 degrees in the afternoon. Wind WSW at 4-8 mph. Sunday: Mostly sunny and pleasant with temperatures reaching the high 60s. Wind WSW at 4-8 mph.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for Pacific Palisades, California is here.

First thing to mention here is that tournament Monday and Tuesday is likely (90-100%) – to see precipitation. The forecast suggests up to 2 inches – 50mm – which will undoubtedly have an impact on turf conditions. Thursday looks spotty as well with around a 60% chance of rain and winds up to circa 15-20 mph from varying directions. Riviera is renowned for its ability to dry quickly with fast, releasing greens, but I’d expect softer conditions for at least the opening 36-54 holes.

No rain is forecast from Friday onwards, with temperatures which will range from 15-20 Celsius (59-68 Fahrenheit) – pretty standard for here. All-in-all, with no real wind to speak off across the final 54 holes and with softer conditions, the players will relish this test post-Thursday.

Strokes Gained Rankings: These top 25 in the field rankings are based on an 8-tournament window that stretches back to the DP World Tour Championship which includes both PGA Tour and DP World Tour events, where recorded. Player rankings are based on performance relative to the rest of the field:

• Top 25 SG Off The Tee: 1) Scottie Scheffler / Adam Scott; 3) Chris Gotterup / Marco Penge; 5) Harris English; 6) Tommy Fleetwood / Rory McIlroy; 8) Si Woo Kim / Jake Knapp; 10) Keegan Bradley; 11) Robert MacIntyre; 12) Sam Stevens / Sepp Straka; 14) Ludvig Aberg; 15) Sam Burns / Collin Morikawa; 17) Cameron Young; 18) Ryo Hisatsune / Shane Lowry; 20) Min Woo Lee; 21) Justin Rose; 22) Ryan Fox / Ryan Gerard / J.J. Spaun; 25) Pierceson Coody.
• Top 25 SG Approach: 1) Shane Lowry; 2) Hideki Matsuyama; 3) Viktor Hovland; 4) Si Woo Kim; 5) Lucas Glover; 6) Tommy Fleetwood; 7) Russell Henley / Sepp Straka; 9) Rickie Fowler / Rory McIlroy; 11) Matt Fitzpatrick; 12) Aaron Rai; 13) Chris Gotterup; 14) Collin Morikawa; 15) Patrick Cantlay / Justin Rose; 17) Jason Day / Maverick McNealy; 19) Sam Burns; 20) Corey Conners / Kurt Kitayama / Scottie Scheffler; 23) Alex Noren / Adam Scott; 25) Pierceson Coody.
• Top 25 SG Around The Green: 1) Hideki Matsuyama; 2) Ben Griffin; 3) J.J. Spaun; 4) Scottie Scheffler; 5) Sepp Straka; 6) Chris Gotterup; 7) Sami Valimaki; 8) Harry Hall; 9) Viktor Hovland; 10) Ryo Hisatsune; 11) Keegan Bradley; 12) Tommy Fleetwood / Cameron Young; 14) Akshay Bhatia; 15) Rory McIlroy; 16) Patrick Cantlay; 17) Bud Cauley; 18) Maverick McNealy; 19) Aaron Rai / Patrick Rodgers; 21) Nick Taylor; 22) Jason Day / Ryan Fox / Jake Knapp / Shane Lowry / Jordan Spieth.
• Top 25 SG Tee to Green: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Si Woo Kim / Rory McIlroy / Sepp Straka; 5) Chris Gotterup; 6) Tommy Fleetwood / Hideki Matsuyama; 8) Shane Lowry; 9) Patrick Cantlay; 10) Sam Stevens; 11) Maverick McNealy / Collin Morikawa; 13) Russell Henley / Adam Scott; 15) Viktor Hovland; 16) Ryo Hisatsune; 17) Pierceson Coody / Matt Fitzpatrick; 19) Jake Knapp / J.J. Spaun; 21) Jason Day / Min Woo Lee; 23) Max McGreevy / Taylor Pendrith / J.T. Poston.
• Top 25 SG Putting: 1) Robert MacIntyre; 2) Scottie Scheffler; 3) Jake Knapp; 4) Michael Kim; 5) Harry Hall; 6) Jason Day; 7) Shane Lowry; 8) Ryan Fox / Justin Rose; 10) Nick Taylor; 11) Jordan Spieth; 12) Matt McCarty; 13) Rory McIlroy / Alex Noren; 15) Jacob Bridgman / Tommy Fleetwood / Hideki Matsuyama / Xander Schauffele; 19) Ryan Gerard; 20) Rickie Fowler / Denny McCarthy / Sami Valimaki; 23) Brian Campbell / Harris English / Taylor Pendrith / Sepp Straka.
• Top 25 SG Total: 1) Scottie Scheffler; 2) Hideki Matsuyama; 3) Jake Knapp; 4) Si Woo Kim; 5) Shane Lowry; 6) Rory McIlroy; 7) Chris Gotterup / Russell Henley; 9) Tommy Fleetwood / Rickie Fowler; 11) Maverick McNealy; 12) Robert MacIntyre; 13) Jason Day / Min Woo Lee; 15) Matt Fitzpatrick / Nick Taylor; 17) Pierceson Coody; 18) Adam Scott; 19) Viktor Hovland; 20) Harris English / Ryan Fox / Ben Griffin; 23) J.T. Poston; 24) Ryan Gerard / Max McGreevy / Justin Rose.

Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the Strokes Gained Stats of the Genesis Invitational winners here at Riviera since 2016 gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this medium length, classical, tree-lined, Par 71:

Strokes Gained Tournament Trends:

• 2024, Hideki Matsuyama (-17). SG Off the Tee: 16th, SG Approach: 18th, SG Around the Green: 3rd, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 3rd.
• 2023, Jon Rahm (-17). SG Off the Tee: 28th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 39th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 12th.
• 2022, Joaquin Niemann (-19). SG Off the Tee: 17th, SG Approach: 1st, SG Around the Green: 2nd, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 26th.
• 2021, Max Homa (-12). SG Off the Tee: 2nd, SG Approach: 21st, SG Around the Green: 9th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 7th.
• 2020, Adam Scott (-11). SG Off the Tee: 17th, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 17th, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 27th.
• 2019, J.B. Holmes (-14). SG Off the Tee: 37th, SG Approach: 6th, SG Around the Green: 33rd, SG Tee to Green: 11th, SG Putting: 1st.
• 2018, Bubba Watson (-12). SG Off the Tee: 17th, SG Approach: 11th, SG Around the Green: 6th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 21st.
• 2017, Dustin Johnson (-17). SG Off the Tee: 1st, SG Approach: 20th, SG Around the Green: 44th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 3rd.
• 2016, Bubba Watson (-15). SG Off the Tee: 16th, SG Approach: 3rd, SG Around the Green: 36th, SG Tee to Green: 5th, SG Putting: 11th.

Strokes Gained Tournament Skill Averages:

• SG Off the Tee: 17th, SG Approach: 9th, SG Around the Green: 21st, SG Tee to Green: 3rd, SG Putting: 12th.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Analysing the final stats of the Genesis Invitational winners at Riviera since 2010 us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

• 2024, Hideki Matsuyama (-17). 300 yards (23rd), 55.4% fairways (24th), 66.7% greens in regulation (5th), 83.3% scrambling (3rd), 1.63 putts per GIR (6th).
• 2023, Jon Rahm (-17). 315 yards (6th), 41.1% fairways (63rd), 70.8% greens in regulation (2nd), 61.9% scrambling (50th), 1.63 putts per GIR (7th).
• 2022, Joaquin Niemann (-19). 297 yards (64th), 44.6% fairways (58th), 65.3% greens in regulation (14th), 76.0 % scrambling (10th), 1.55 putts per GIR (2nd).
• 2021, Max Homa (-12). 290 yards (51st), 57.1% fairways (3rd), 62.5% greens in regulation (5th), 66.7 % scrambling (24th), 1.58 putts per GIR (1st).
• 2020, Adam Scott (-11). 305 yards (15th), 41.1% fairways (63rd), 72.2% greens in regulation (1st), 60.0 % scrambling (46th), 1.69 putts per GIR (15th).
• 2019, J.B. Holmes (-14). 281 yards (41st), 51.8% fairways (59th), 72.2% greens in regulation (2nd), 70.0 % scrambling (17th), 1.67 putts per GIR (6th).
• 2018, Bubba Watson (-12). 304 yards (21st), 57.1% fairways (27th), 63.9% greens in regulation (7th), 69.2 % scrambling (20th), 1.65 putts per GIR (13th).
• 2017, Dustin Johnson (-17). 315 yards (1st), 51.8% fairways (45th), 77.8% greens in regulation (1st), 81.3 % scrambling (5th), 1.70 putts per GIR (16th).
• 2016, Bubba Watson (-15). 295 yards (17th), 50.0% fairways (50th), 70.8% greens in regulation (7th), 76.4 % scrambling (4th), 1.73 putts per GIR (21st).
• 2015, James Hahn (-6). 287 yards (50th), 51.8% fairways (37th), 55.6% greens in regulation (28th), 68.8 % scrambling (13th), 1.70 putts per GIR (14th).
• 2014, Bubba Watson (-15). 319 yards (1st), 62.5% fairways (8th), 70.8% greens in regulation (3rd), 71.4 % scrambling (16th), 1.65 putts per GIR (7th).
• 2013, John Merrick (-11). 299 yards (20th), 53.6% fairways (29th), 63.9% greens in regulation (24th), 65.4% scrambling (19th), 1.67 putts per GIR (8th).
• 2012, Bill Haas (-7). 280 yards (60th), 55.4% fairways (32nd), 50.0% greens in regulation (59th), 72.2% scrambling (1st), 1.72 putts per GIR (12th).
• 2011, Aaron Baddeley (-12). 277 yards (42nd), 50.0% fairways (57th), 72.2% greens in regulation (3rd), 80.0% scrambling (1st), 1.83 putts per GIR (54th).
• 2010, Steve Stricker (-16). 270 yards (37th), 69.6% fairways (29th), 66.7% greens in regulation (11th), 75.0% scrambling (8th), 1.63 putts per GIR (3rd).

Tournament Skill Averages:

• Driving Distance: 30th, Driving Accuracy: 39th, Greens in Regulation: 11th, Scrambling: 16th, Putting Average 12th.

So let’s take a view from players as to how Riviera Country Club set-up plus what skill sets they favour:

Jon Rahm (2023): “My record is decent in California, right? I think because I grew up on poa annua greens, I feel comfortable and it’s shown. Again, it’s a golf course where you need to strike the golf ball well, you need to move it both ways and tee to green is obviously usually my forte and it plays to my strengths and that’s why I think I’ve had success here.

It’s a difficult golf course out there. Yesterday morning it was still a little bit softer so you could be a bit more aggressive. Those greens were getting a little crunchy and a little firmer, so the margins are already small on this golf course and you’re playing with even smaller margins with running fairways and firm greens, not to add the poa annua factor in the afternoon. So to just shoot even par I’m really happy about be cause it did not look good for a while and luckily I got it together for the last seven holes.”

Joaquin Niemann (2022): “I’ve been here a couple times. Obviously I played the U.S. Amateur a couple years ago. I remember last year I played great golf the first two days, then the weekend I didn’t play good. I think it’s one of those courses that you do everything right; you have to hit it good off the tee, you have to hit your irons pretty good and you’ve got to putt unbelievable, especially on these type of greens because they’re so fast.”

“On 12 I knew I had like – I think I had like 200 front and I had a little window there that I had to cut it like 20, 30 yards with a 4-iron. Obviously he didn’t like the idea of that, but I felt pretty confident of that shot and I felt that I was able to do it. I hit actually a really good shot, just a little bit lower than I thought and it just didn’t carry that, but it was close to being pretty good.”

Max Homa (2021): “I know the golf course pretty well. I’ve been fortunate to play a few more times since college and it’s the grass I grew up on. Kikuyu, poa annua, it’s very, very comfortable for me.”

“I was patient. I did a lot of the things the same as yesterday. My touch wasn’t quite as good around the greens, left myself too many six- to eight-footers, but stayed patient, waited for some good numbers, took advantage when I had them at the end. Yeah, it felt very similar to yesterday, just kind of Riviera doing what it does. But the fairways are really firm, so it’s running. If you can hit the ball in the fairway, you’re going to have a pretty short club in. If you miss it in the rough, you’re going to have quite a bit longer in, it just stops it right away. It was similar to yesterday. Tough test. Some pins a little easier, but some pins much harder.”

“I didn’t make a bogey over the final 26 holes. I was proud of that. Fred Couples oddly enough has been texting me especially throughout this week and he told me Thursday or Friday that solid golf wins at Riviera and just keep playing solid, and I’ve been thinking about that ever since and especially on a day like today. Really difficult this morning when we came back out, made two great putts to start, kind of settled my nerves and I just was trying to be as solid as I could. My coach and caddie, Joe, we’ve had a mantra this week, position over perfection, so we were just trying to leave it in the best spot all week and I thought we did a really good job of that this week.”

Adam Scott (2020):“ Yeah, I really just like a lot of the holes out here. You know, I stand on the tee very comfortable here, and shots into the green. Somehow I manage to putt generally well here when it’s one of the courses that guys struggle most on tour with. Something about it reminds me a lot of some golf in Australia, too, in areas. Just feel very comfortable every time I’m here.”

“I guess I scrambled well today. I think I got up and down five times out of five, so probably that. You know, it’s very tough here in the afternoons putting. Yesterday when I missed a green and I chipped them up, even good chips, it was hard to be sure you’re going to make them from inside that 10 feet, five feet, and missed a few. This morning when you could chip them up, you’re just a little more confident with the smoother greens. So my chipping and my putting was very solid out there this morning.”

“But I think with the putting, it’s a bit of both. I seem to not struggle too much on the greens here and I guess at least by the stats everyone else does compared to normal. I don’t know what it is because they putt on poa at other places, but maybe it’s just the undulation and it’s more difficult here. But I’ve kind of always been fairly comfortable on these greens.”

J.B. Holmes (2019): “I knew that it was going to get really windy in the afternoon and that’s what the weather had said. Always thought that would have been a better chance for me; usually when the conditions are crappy I do better. You never know out here. This is a tough golf course and you throw that kind of wind in there. But yeah, at one point it looked like,  Brandon looked at me and said, Do you think Justin is going to get to 20 under, and I was like, You mean this round? He was playing unbelievable there that third round. You can’t just get up there and whack it when it’s blowing that hard. You’ve got to read wind and there’s a lot of slope on these greens. It’s not an easy golf course and you throw in winds like that. On 13 or 14, the par 3, I hit a 5-iron and it stays pretty good. He hits a 5-iron really good and a gust of wind comes up and he comes up like 15 yards short, and I think he hit it better than I hit mine. It’s very tough. Then when you get putting like that, it’s just not going to be fast anywhere.”

Bubba Watson (2018): “You know, there was a great champion that went bogey free on the weekend one time. But no, it’s a tough one because of the greens, because of this grass. We know late in the day you’re going to get some bounces that you don’t agree with, so it’s very difficult. You’ll hit a chip shot or an iron shot that you think is great, hits a little bounce and goes opposite or whatever, or your putt does that. So it’s very difficult and you’re going to make a mistake. It might not be a mistake by you, it might be the ball bounces the other way. So you’ve got to just keep fighting and hopefully you make more birdies than bogeys. This golf course stood the test of time. Nobody’s talking about changing it unless they mention a major involved with it. They added a tee on No. 2 a long time ago, a few years ago, and we never played it because No. 2 doesn’t need it. So when you think about history and not messing with the golf course, today, this day and age you can’t build a golf course like this. It stood the test of time. It’s the only golf course that has a perfect par 3 with a bunker in the middle of it. You know, it’s just a beautiful layout and it’s fun to play. You’ve got to hit shots from every different angle, you’ve got to move it right to left and left to right, so it’s just fun. Then the greens are the equalizer so it makes me look, I putt as good as the other guys.”

Jordan Spieth: “I mean, you can go back in your memory, and I can picture all the holes, I know where the pins are, I know where the breaks are on those greens. But you’ve still got to get on to the practice greens and then dial in the feel, dial in the speed. This poa annua putts differently than it did last week at the courses that we played there in Pebble Beach, and so you’ve got to be careful here. It can get away from you very quickly. And it’s hard to get below the hole. That’s the thing out here. So you start to go to the driving range and I’ll start to try and work on some shots where you kind of float ones in, work on a lot of shots that you can loft up in the air more than maybe you would do last week. So there’s still a lot of adjustments to be made, even if you are familiar with the place, because with the weather here compared to what it could be last week, normally it’s less wind here and it’s more positioning. You’ve got to be in the fairways, even with little rough, to be able to hold these greens. You start working on a lot of different shots.”

Rory McIlroy: “It’s a great golf course. We don’t play golf courses like this very often anymore on Tour, and it’s a real treat when you come to a golf course like this where it’s not overly long, you don’t have to really bomb it off the tee, but it’s real strategic. You’ve got to place your ball on the right sides of the fairways. You have to make sure you hit it to the right side of the greens. You really can’t short-side yourself here. You can’t really get it above the pin. It’s a real thinker’s golf course and it’s a real treat to play something like this because we don’t get to play them that often anymore. Especially those, I think I saw a stat the other day, that there was more 3-footers missed here than there was anywhere else last year, I think by a long way actually. Inside sort of five or six feet is going to be really important this week, because you’re not going to hit the amount of greens that you’re used to hitting. You hit 12 greens around here, you’ve done pretty well. So there will be a lot of those holing-out-type distances for pars that will be important. I think that’s one of the big things this week for me, and I’ve been trying to work on that.”

Bubba Watson: “Today obviously with the rain it was easier. The golf course is accepting shots. But this golf course, the history of this golf course, this is one of those golf courses that we talk about a lot, because of the history. There’s not much change around here. The golf course has stayed the same, same kind of grass, it’s not heavy rough. It’s basically getting the right bounce. You lands it six inches short, it stays short. You land it just on the green it could bounce over. It’s all about hitting the right trajectories, hitting the right line, and hopefully on certain pins, hitting the fairway so you can produce a little bit of spin. So your answer is: It’s just a traditional old school golf course that’s got a lot of history. I love it because of the history, and as you can see, there’s some trees down compared to where the first time I played here. I think I started playing here nine, ten years ago. And so you can spray it a little bit but still manage the golf course. But at the same time, you can hit fairways and manage the golf course. It’s one of those golf courses where it can bite you at any minute, but at the same time you can score and you can imagine a bunch of shots around the trees and around the greens.”

First Round Leader Analysis: First round leader(s), their wave and winning score here at Riviera since 2010. Full First Round Leader stats are here.

• 2024 – Cantlay – Group 10 -7/64 – 33/1.
• 2023 – Homa/Mitchell – AM/PM -7/64 – 35/1 & 80/1.
• 2022 – Niemann – PM -8/63 – 66/1.
• 2021 – Burns – PM -7/64 – 85/1.
• 2020 – Kuchar – AM -7/64 – 60/1.
• 2019 – Holmes – PM -8/63 – 100/1.
• 2018 – Cantlay/Finau – Both PM -5/66 – Both 55/1.
• 2017 – Saunders – AM -7/64 – 300/1.
• 2016 – Villegas PM -8/63.
• 2015 – Fathauer/Goosen/Hahn/Singh/Summerhays/Watney – 5AM/1PM -5/66.
• 2014 – D Johnson – AM -5/66.
• 2013 – Kuchar – AM -7/64.
• 2012 – Mickelson – PM -5/66.
• 2011 – 9 players -4/67.
• 2010 – D Johnson – AM -7/64.

For the record, here’s the breakdown of pure Poa Annua and Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix PGA Tour victors in the field since 2008:

• 4 – Keegan Bradley, Jason Day, Max Homa, Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose.
• 3 – Collin Morikawa.
• 2 – Harris English, Hideki Matsuyama, Scottie Scheffler, Adam Scott, Jordan Spieth, Nick Taylor.
• 1 – Ludvig Aberg, Daniel Berger, Akshay Bhatia, Patrick Cantlay, Wyndham Clark, Matt Fitzpatrick, Rickie Fowler, Ryan Fox, Ryan Gerard, Tom Hoge, Viktor Hovland, Shane Lowry, Robert MacIntyre, Aldrich Potgieter, Xander Schauffele, J.J. Spaun, Sahith Theegala.

There’s undoubtedly a form link between Riviera and a couple of other classical golf courses. The course here features Kikuyugrass fairways and rough, agronomy which is only shared with Torrey Pines, so it’s hardly a surprise to see that recent winners like Baddeley, Haas, Johnson, Merrick, Watson, Scott, Homa, Niemann, Rahm and Matsuyama had all previously finished 11th or better (Merrick’s was at the 2008 U.S. Open) down the coast in La Jolla, San Diego. 2015’s shock winner James Hahn doesn’t share that distinction, but he had finished 3rd on the Poa Annua greens at Pebble Beach in his rookie season of 2013. Steve Stricker, who won here in 2010, has no Torrey Pines form of note, however he’d finished 2nd at Riviera 12 months earlier showing he could handle the Kikuyu.

So look for upwardly mobile ball-strikers this week who have a penchant for playing positively at Torrey Pines, Pebble Beach, or naturally here at Riviera. A high ball flight to hold fast greens, the ability to grind when scoring is tough, plus the ability to move the ball confidently both ways are also key attributes.

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 14:25GMT 16.2.26 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.