Paul Williams

Paul Williams' The Open Tips 2025

Get Paul's previews as soon as they're published @golfbetting Follow Now
Follow us on X @golfbetting
Join over 6,500 punters on our facebook group
Watch our latest tips videos on YouTube

Stats Pages For The 2025 Open:

 

Fancy Rory McIlroy to win The Open? bet365 are offering an exclusive Bet Boost on Rory to win The Open in their enhanced win only market for Golf Betting System readers – check out the latest odds here! T&Cs apply.

The very best players in world golf are being joined at Royal Portrush this week by those who’ve qualified through the many and varied routes, as 156 hopefuls battle to win the Claret Jug and the title of Champion Golfer of the Year in what’s sure to be an enthralling 4 days on the County Antrim links.

For new visitors, Golf Betting System is into its 16th season providing free statistics, predictor models and previews across every Major Championship, PGA and DP World Tour event. We also have a thriving golf betting community with constant golf betting chat and insight from golf punters 24/7 on our Facebook Group, so if you’re not already a group member then please join today.

You can also listen to our weekly Golf Betting System podcast (published every Tuesday of the golfing calendar), which is also available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and on the Steve Bamford Golf Channel, as well as across all popular podcast players.

With a top-class field comes an intriguing betting market, with world number 1 Scottie Scheffler rating as the 5/1 favourite at the time of writing with 3 wins to his name already in 2025. Rory McIlroy follows behind at 7/1 with Jon Rahm at 12/1, before the prices begin to lengthen into the 20/1 and beyond range.

2025 Open Championship Key Bookmaker Promotions

The 2025 Open Championship looks to be the most competitive Major Championship that we have ever seen. Additional each-way place hunters are spoilt for choice, and we’ve never seen so many additional each-way places offered at a Major.

bet365 bet365 Choose Up To 12 Places Each Way, 1/5 Odds – PLUS get their massively popular Bet £/€10 Get £/€30 in free bets offer for new customers using bonus code SPORT30.

  • You can choose 8, 10 or even 12 places, 1/5 odds with bet365’s ‘Each Way Extra’ on golf, plus new customers can grab the latest bet365 new customer offer as detailed below:

✅ Bet £10 get £30 in free bets for new customers
✅ Bonus code SPORT30 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way

bet365 New Customer Offer: Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration required. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad

CLAIM T&Cs

Ladbrokes Ladbrokes 10 Places Each Way, 1/5 Odds – PLUS get an enhanced Bet £/€10 Get £/€40 in free bets offer for new customers.

  • Ladbrokes have been consistently offering 10 places each way on full-field PGA Tour events of late, and for The Open they’ve enhanced their new customer offer to a massive £/€40 in free bets:

✅ Limited Offer! Bet £/€10, Get £/€40 in Free Bets using this qualifying link.
✅ For further details read our Ladbrokes promo code page.
✅ Regularly offer 10 places each-way, 1/5 odds on full-field PGA Tour events.

18+. New UK & ROI customers. Min first deposit £10 and place win or each-way bet within 14 days of account registration at min odds 1/2 to get 4 x £10 free bets. Restrictions & T&Cs apply. #Ad

CLAIM T&Cs

boylesports Boylesports 10 Places Each Way, 1/5 Odds – PLUS get a Bet £/€10 Get £/€40 in free bets and bonuses offer for new customers.

  • Boylesports have also been offering 10 places each way on full-field PGA Tour events and they have a similar Bet £/€10 Get £/€40 in free bets and bonuses offer for new customers:

✅ Bet £10 Get £30 Free Bets & £10 Casino Bonus for new customers using this qualifying link
✅ Get paid 10 places instead of 6 on each-way bets on selected PGA Tour events*
✅ ‘Pick Your Place’ promotion where you choose between 6, 10 or 12 places each way

Boylesports UK New Customer Offer: New UK customers (Excluding NI) only. £40 in FREE Bets (FB) as £30 in sports bets & a £10 casino bonus (CB). Min Deposit £10. Min stake £10. Min odds Evs. FB applied on 1st settlement of any qualifying bet. FB 7-day expiry. 1 FB offer per customer, household & IP address only. Account & Payment restrictions. 14 days to accept £10 CB, then active for 3 days. CB 5x wagering & max redeemable £100. Game restrictions apply. Cashed out/Free Bets won’t apply. 30 days to qualify. 18+. T&Cs apply. #Ad

*10 Places Key Terms: 18+. 1/5 odds 10 Places. Pre-live each way bets on outright market only. Dead Heat rules apply. Free/void/antepost/cashed out/multiple bets won’t qualify. Account & Payment restrictions apply. T&Cs apply. #Ad

CLAIM T&Cs

Royal Portrush Golf Club – Dunluce Links, Portrush, Northern Ireland: Designer: Harry Colt, with Martin Ebert renovation in 2017; Course Type: Coastal, Links; Par: 71; Length: 7,346 yards; Fairways: Fescue, Bentgrass and Meadow Grass; Rough: Fescue, Bentgrass and Meadow Grass; Greens: Bentgrass (50%), Fescue (30%), Annual Meadow grass (20%).

The Dunluce Links at Royal Portrush has been described as a course that rewards pure golf and rejects bad shots with harsh consequences. A Harry Colt masterpiece, the Dunluce will play as a challenging Par 71 at 7,346 yards with a little length having been added since the 2019 Open held here.

Set within amazing dunes which frame holes perfectly, the course has undulations across its routing but also on the green complexes too. The greens are undoubtedly the star here on the Dunluce Links as they are undulating and devilish when firm. Naturally the R&A will have control over them, but a dry build-up could turn this into a more technical challenge.

open championship tips

For a full breakdown of the course, changes since The Open last visited, and player quotes from the 2019 Open Championship hosted here, read Steve Bamford’s pre-event trends article.

Tournament Stats: We’ve published some key player statistics for this week’s Open Championship that will help to shape a view on players who traditionally play well at this event: Current Form | Tournament Form | First Round Leader Stats | Combined Stats | Recent Majors Stats.

Predictor Model: Our published Predictor Model is available here. As always you can build your own model using the variables available.

Our brand new predictor model is running alongside, where you can build your own rankings in live time, using the variables listed on the left hand side.

Winners & Prices: 2024, Xander Schauffele, 14/1; 2023: Brian Harman, 125/1; 2022: Cameron Smith, 28/1; 2021: Collin Morikawa, 40/1; 2019: Shane Lowry: 70/1; 2018: Francesco Molinari, 33/1; 2017: Jordan Spieth, 16/1; 2016: Henrik Stenson, 33/1; 2015: Zach Johnson, 110/1; 2014: Rory McIlroy, 18/1; 2013, Phil Mickelson, 20/1; 2012: Ernie Els, 45/1; 2011: Darren Clarke, 200/1; 2010: Louis Oosthuizen, 250/1.

Weather Forecast: The latest weather forecast for the area is here.

The glorious hot and sunny conditions of the weekend just gone will have relented a little by the time the world’s best players arrive in Country Antrim, however aside from the occasional light shower or spell of drizzle it should be warm and pleasant for playing golf throughout the four days. A breeze of no more than 10mph won’t offer the course any defence, so it will be down to the firmness of the course to stop scoring getting too low.

Tournament Trends & Key Factors: Let’s take the final skill statistics from Shane Lowry’s 2019 Open Championship victory at Royal Portrush and his closest challengers. This gives us a little more insight into the requirements for this test:

  • 1st, Shane Lowry (-15). 301 yards (12th), 62.5% fairways (22nd), 79.2% greens in regulation (1st), 46.7 % scrambling (39th), 1.60 putts per GIR (2nd).
  • 2nd, Tommy Fleetwood (-9). 289 yards (41st), 64.3% fairways (16th), 69.4% greens in regulation (17th), 72.7 % scrambling (1st), 1.68 putts per GIR (18th).
  • 3rd, Tony Finau (-7). 301 yards (10th), 53.6% fairways (55th), 75.0% greens in regulation (3rd), 61.1% scrambling (7th), 1.74 putts per GIR (50th).
  • 4th, Brooks Koepka (-6). 299 yards (14th), 64.3% fairways (16th), 65.3% greens in regulation (34th), 60% scrambling (8th), 1.68 putts per GIR (19th).
  • 4th, Lee Westwood (-6). 299 yards (17th), 71.4% fairways (22nd), 75.0% greens in regulation (3rd), 38.9% scrambling (59th), 1.69 putts per GIR (23rd).

Check the traditional statistics from 2019 here and Greens in Regulation was critical. Shane Lowry topped the category across a windy renewal, hitting a pretty remarkable 59 of 72 greens (79.17%). Tony Finau and Lee Westwood hit 56 of 72 greens (75%) which placed them tied 3rd for greens hit – Finau finished 3rd overall with Westwood 4th.

Ultimately – and so often the case at an Open – Lowry’s hot putter was the difference though, making 23 Birdies across the week which was 4 better than anybody else in the field.

Recent Form: Going back to the Open held at St Andrews in 2010, each of the 14 players who’ve lifted the Claret Jug have had some contending form in the recent past. Each of the winners had a top-3 finish or better in their last 8 starts, and if you take the past 8 Open victors in isolation, each of them had a win or 2nd place finish in one of their past 9 outings.

Last 10 event form of Open Championship winners since 2010 reads as follows (most recent result on the right):

  • 2024, Xander Schauffele: 2/5/8/18/2/1/8/7/13/15
  • 2023, Brian Harman: MC/7/MC/MC/29/MC/43/2/9/12
  • 2022, Cameron Smith: 33/1/3/MC/21/13/13/48/MC/10
  • 2021, Collin Morikawa: 1/41/56/18/7/8/14/2/4/71
  • 2019, Shane Lowry: 62/MC/MC/24/MC/3/8/2/28/34
  • 2018, Francesco Molinari: 17/20/49/16/MC/1/2/25/1/2
  • 2017, Jordan Spieth: 12/30/MC/11/MC/MC/2/13/35/1
  • 2016, Henrik Stenson: 11/3/2/24/MC/MC/4/WD/1/13
  • 2015, Zach Johnson: 20/9/MC/17/13/19/5/72/6/3
  • 2014: Rory McIlroy: 25/7/8/8/6/1/15/23/MC/14
  • 2013: Phil Mickelson: 3/MC/16/54/3/MC/2/2/MC/1
  • 2012: Ernie Els: 4/12/MC/2/MC/41/7/58/9/52
  • 2011: Darren Clarke: 12/48/MC/77/1/45/63/46/MC/66
  • 2010: Louis Oosthuizen: 3/44/2/1/MC/MC/21/20/MC/MC

The other point to note here are the finishes of our last three winners who all played the Scottish Open the week before lifting the Claret Jug. Cam Smith finished 10th at Renaissance, Brian Harman finished 12th, and Xander ended up in a tie for 15th on the North Berwick links last year.

For current form stats for this week’s field click here.

2025 Victory: Going back to the start of the century, 17 of the 24 Open Championship winners had already won an event of some description in that calendar year to date, so siding with players who have already tasted success in 2025 may not be a bad ploy.

For reference they were: Tiger Woods (00, 05, 06), Ernie Els (02), Todd Hamilton (04), Padraig Harrington (07), Louis Oosthuizen (10), Darren Clarke (11), Phil Mickelson (13), Rory McIlroy (14), Henrik Stenson (16), Jordan Spieth (17), Francesco Molinari (18), Shane Lowry (19), Collin Morikawa (21), Cameron Smith (22), and Xander Schauffele (24).

Open Championship Record: Positive previous Open Championship performances have also been a factor when you look through the history of the most recent winners of golf’s oldest Major.

11 of the last 14 Open Champions had all previously secured at least a top-10 in this event in their careers – the exceptions to that rule being Louis Oosthuizen’s win at St Andrews in 2010, Collin Morikawa who won at Royal St George’s on debut in 2021, and Cameron Smith in 2022 at St Andrews.

Smith’s record could and perhaps should have been much better though, having sat in 5th place after 36 holes in 2019 and 9th after 54 holes in 2021, before getting it right over the weekend 3 years ago.

Brian Harman restored the trend in 2023 having finished 6th at St Andrews the year before and continuing a sequence of improving performances at The Open, and Xander built on a solid Open record last year which included runner-up to Francesco Molinari at Carnoustie in 2018:

  • 2024, Xander Schauffele: 20/2/41/26/15/17
  • 2023, Brian Harman: 26/MC/MC/MC/MC/19/6
  • 2022, Cameron Smith: MC/78/20/33
  • 2021, Collin Morikawa: Debut
  • 2019, Shane Lowry: 37/32/9/MC/MC/MC/MC
  • 2018, Francesco Molinari: MC/13/MC/MC/39/9/15/40/36/MC
  • 2017, Jordan Spieth: 44/36/4/30
  • 2016, Henrik Stenson: MC/34/48/MC/3/13/3/68/2/39/40
  • 2015, Zach Johnson: MC/MC/MC/20/51/47/76/16/9/6/47
  • 2014: Rory McIlroy: 42/47/3/25/60/MC
  • 2013: Phil Mickelson: 41/24/76/MC/11/30/66/59/3/60/22/MC/19/48/2/MC
  • 2012: Ernie Els: 2/10/28/24/2/3/1/18/2/34/3/4/7/8/MC/MC
  • 2011: Darren Clarke: 11/2/MC/30/7/3/37/59/11/15/MC/MC/52/44
  • 2010: Louis Oosthuizen: MC/MC/MC

For event history stats for this week’s field click here.

Recent Majors Form: One aspect that we’ve discussed on the Golf Betting System Podcast when previewing The Open over the years is the growing and consistent trend that recent Open Champions have recorded a top-25 finish in one of their previous 4 Major starts, and in the case of the last 7 Open winners, a top-11 finish.

Last 4 Majors of Open winners:

  • 2024, Xander Schauffele: 17/8/1/7
  • 2023, Brian Harman: 6/MC/MC/43
  • 2022, Cameron Smith: 33/3/13/MC
  • 2021, Collin Morikawa: MC/18/8/4
  • 2019, Shane Lowry: 12/MC/8/28
  • 2018, Francesco Molinari: MC/2/20/25
  • 2017, Jordan Spieth: 30/13/11/35
  • 2016, Henrik Stenson: 40/25/24/WD
  • 2015, Zach Johnson: 47/69/9/72
  • 2014: Rory McIlroy: MC/8/8/23
  • 2013: Phil Mickelson: MC/36/54/2
  • 2012: Ernie Els: MC/MC/-/9

Logically this makes a level of sense as players who have found themselves in and around the top end of a Major leaderboard in recent times may well take that experience forward and build on it when the chance arises at The Open.

For recent Major Championship form for this week’s field click here.

OWGR Ranking Of Winners: It’s also interesting to note that only two players since 2000 have won The Open whilst ranking outside of the world’s top-55 when entering this week: Ben Curtis in 2003 and Darren Clarke in 2011 were the two to achieve this.

Taking this another step further, every Open Champion since Clarke’s win has ranked inside the OWGR top 40 at the time:

  • 2024, Xander Schauffele: 3rd
  • 2023, Brian Harman: 26th
  • 2022, Cameron Smith: 6th
  • 2021, Collin Morikawa: 4th
  • 2019, Shane Lowry: 33rd
  • 2018, Francesco Molinari: 15th
  • 2017, Jordan Spieth: 3rd
  • 2016, Henrik Stenson: 6th
  • 2015, Zach Johnson: 25th
  • 2014, Rory McIlroy: 8th
  • 2013, Phil Mickelson: 6th
  • 2012, Ernie Els: 40th

Of course there’s the LIV factor to consider with this year’s renewal given that those players aren’t getting the same level of opportunities to gather OWGR points, however the history to this point is pretty indisputable.

The performance of Shane Lowry here in 2019 can’t be underestimated as his 15-under total was achieved in far tougher conditions than we’re likely to experience this week, and he lapped the field by finishing a full six shots clear in the end. My gut feel is the winning score might be a little deeper than that this time without so much separation in the field, however much will depend on how firm the greens play and how difficult it is for approach shots to hold putting surfaces.

My 2025 Open Championship Tips Are As Follows:

Rory McIlroy 6pts Win 7/1 with William Hill

Motivation. A subject that keeps employers to parents, teachers to sports scientists either scratching their heads or in gainful employment. Motivation for a professional golfer can come in a multitude of forms, and as punters and observers of the game we see evidence of this manifest almost on a weekly basis.

From those players who find a way to step up their game when their card’s on the line, or when there’s a points or earnings threshold they need to surpass to achieve a certain goal, to those who find a way to win following big life events, major birthdays, bereavements, births, marriages – betting on golf is littered with examples of players finding that extra 1% between the ears that allows the door to finally open.

Since winning The Masters in April in scintillating fashion and completing his long-awaited personal Major Grand Slam, Rory McIlroy has looked a litter bereft of motivation and has mentioned as such. So often we see players win a maiden Major and never win another, in some cases with their game dropping off the proverbial cliff. Rory’s a different breed of player to that of course having won five Majors now, however by donning the Green Jacket there was a sense that he’d achieved his career dream. Golf? Completed it, mate.

But, to reiterate the point, Rory’s a different breed of golfer. A second round 78 to miss the cut at the Canadian Open last month way have been the turning point as 19th at the US Open and 6th at the Travelers were undoubtedly a step in the right direction, however it was likely a return back across the Atlantic and a couple of weeks of rest and reflection that has ultimately done the trick.

Finding the right goals from here to motivate the 36 year-old are key, and it would appear that he’s getting his head around what they may be. “I would love to win an Open at Portrush, absolutely. I would love to win an Open at St Andrews. I would love to win a U.S. Open at Pebble Beach,” he said prior to the Scottish Open last week, and I think that gives a hint of the way that Rory’s reframing his outlook on life and the next stage of his career. New targets, new objectives, a new level of motivation – and it just so happens he can knock one of those milestones off his list this week.

Last week’s runner-up finish at Renaissance aside, where we was undoubtedly rusty on Thursday before going through the gears, Rory’s clearly got the game to win here and he appeals far more than a frustrated looking Scottie Scheffler, who wasn’t particularly comfortable on similar greens in North Berwick, and Jon Rahm who warmed up at Valderrama with his LIV colleagues on a far less relevant track. His win at Hoylake in 2014 combined with six further top-6 finishes at The Open over the years is testament to his links pedigree, and he also shot 61 at the Dunluce here at Royal Portrush as a fresh-faced 16 year-old in 2005 as he worked his way onto the European Tour. 10th at the Irish Open held here was better on the face of it than his missed cut at the 2019 Open, however he’d  shot himself out of that tournament on the Thursday with a 79, so a Friday 65 offers far more encouragement.

A newly focused and rejuvenated Rory McIlroy will be very hard to beat this week in my view. “It’s been a great week. I’m really happy with where my game is; the way I played over the weekend; the shots that I hit, how I controlled my ball flight. It has been a great week. Everything is in a really good spot and I’m happy with how my game progressed as the week went on,” was how he summed up the Scottish Open, and I’ll back him to win at Portrush accordingly.

Fancy Rory McIlroy to win The Open? bet365 are offering an exclusive Bet Boost on Rory to win The Open in their enhanced win only market for Golf Betting System readers – check out the latest odds here! T&Cs apply.

✅ Bet £/€10 Get £/€40 in free bets for new customers using code G40 and this qualifying link
✅ For further details read our William Hill promo code page
✅ One of the earliest bookmakers to publish odds most weeks on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour

18+. Play Safe. Online only. For new UK register customers using promo code G40. Deposit & place £10 cash single bet (min odds 1/2) on sportsbook (excl. Virtuals). Get £40 in Free Bets (4x£10), valid for sportsbook (excl. Virtuals), 7 days expiry, must use in full (£10 each). Not valid with deposits via PayPal, Neosurf, Paysafe, Apple Pay, NETELLER, Skrill, ecoPayz, Kalibra/Postpay or WH PLUS Card. One per customer. Full T&Cs apply. gambleaware.org. #Ad

CLAIM T&Cs

Ludvig Aberg 2pts EW 28/1 (7EW, 1/5) with Unibet

If Rory doesn’t win then it may take a ‘generational talent’ – the Ryder Cup captain’s words, not mine – like Ludvig Aberg to surpass him at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.

The uber-talented Swede will surely find his way onto Donald’s team again this autumn and continue to grow his profile in the game that was further boosted in February when he beat the PGA Tour’s finest at the Signature-level Genesis Invitational, building on his maiden title won at the RSM Classic at the end of 2023.

Playing in just his eighth Major, what the 25 year-old lacks in experience he more than makes up for in ability, and in those previous seven outings he’s finished 2nd at Augusta on debut, 7th there again this year, plus 12th at the last year’s US Open. Those results don’t tell the whole story either as Ludvig was +4 for the final two holes at this year’s Masters when right in the hunt, plus he led that US Open at Pinehurst at the halfway point – put simply he’s more than capable of seriously contending, and dare I say winning, on the very biggest of stages.

A finish of tied 8th at Renaissance over the weekend could have been far better were it not for dropping five strokes in the space of three holes on Saturday, however he’s learning all the time and it was a strong warm-up for this week’s main event in any case. “I’m just pleased to see the flights coming out the way I want to. I think that’s the most important thing for me, and obviously the big week is next week,” he said in North Berwick where he built further links experience after finishing 4th there last year.

Similar to Collin Morikawa in 2021, if there’s any player in this field who’s capable of busting some of the established trends at The Open then it’s Aberg, so I’m willing to overlook his missed cut at Troon last year on Open debut and a slightly indifferent form line since his Genesis victory.

✅ Bet £10 get £40 in bonuses for new customers
✅ For further details read our Unibet sign up offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ Strong odds on First Round Leader market

Unibet New Customer Offer: 18+. BeGambleAware.org. New GB customers only. Min £10 debit card deposit. Place a £10+ bet at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days. Opt in for £20 in free bets and £20 Casino Bonus. Valid for 7 days. Geographical restrictions and T&C’s apply. #Ad

CLAIM T&Cs

Sepp Straka 1pt EW 50/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

A player who I feel is a little overpriced is Sepp Straka and I like him as an each-way chance this week with the extended places on offer.

In the slipstream into Sunday at Renaissance, the Austrian was ultimately a little too far back to have a realistic chance of taking the title, however a 7th place finish is no disaster and he heads across to Northern Ireland with his game in good shape.

Four times a winner now on the PGA Tour, two of those victories have come in 2025 and he quite rightly sits inside the automatic qualification line for this year’s Ryder Cup for what would be his second successive appearance under Luke Donald. Let’s be honest though, even if he drops out of the top 6 then he should get a pick given the year he’s had, however Sepp can cement his place in the team this week with a lofty finish.

With those wins at the American Express and most recently the Truist Championship, combined with three further top-7 finishes including at the Memorial just last month, the only disappointment from Straka’s season has been his performance in the Majors where he’s missed three cuts from three, however that’s ultimately the only box that he doesn’t tick and I can forgive that given the price on offer. 22nd at Troon last year was solid, however it’s his 2nd at Hoylake the year before that really catches the eye in a Ryder Cup year where he also finished 7th at the Oak Hill-hosted US PGA Championship.

8th in the OWGR yet around 15th in the betting doesn’t compute in my opinion, and at 3rd on Tour for SG Approach and 7th for SG Tee to Green, the 32 year-old has the ideal game for Royal Portrush, boosted by a spark with the flat stick last week where he ranked 4th for SG Putting.

✅ Bet £10 get £30 in free bets for new customers
✅ Bonus code SPORT30 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way

bet365 New Customer Offer: Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration required. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad

CLAIM T&Cs

Russell Henley 1pt EW 66/1 (8EW, 1/5) with bet365

Finally, of the players that tick all the trends boxes detailed above, Russell Henley is an interesting prospect this week.

With the likes of Brian Harman and J.J. Spaun capturing a Major championship apiece over the past 2 years, that must give heart to players who aren’t considered in the truly ‘elite’ bracket in the eyes of most observers of the game. Perhaps that’s being a little harsh on a player who currently sits at a career-high 5th in the OWGR right now, however given his relatively long price compared to his world ranking I think there’s some validity in my point.

The 36 year-old captured his 5th title in March of this year, beating Collin Morikawa by a stroke at Bay Hill to secure his biggest win to date which was at Signature level against the cream of the PGA Tour crop. That effort followed a strong start to the season where he recorded top-10s at the Sony Open, Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and the Cognizant Classic, and he’s not shown any sign of stopping since, finishing 5th at the Memorial, 10th at the US Open, and 2nd on his last start at the Travelers Championship.

That effort at Oakmont is interesting as it means that the Georgia man has now finished inside the top 10 in three of the last five Majors, a run which includes 5th at Royal Troon last year. 4th at the 2023 Masters completes a strong Major Championship resume over the past two years or so and does beg the question why he’s not fancied a little more for this week.

At 168th on Tour for Driving Distance, perhaps the answer is that Russell isn’t your typical modern golfer, however on a firm, fast links where balls will run if you can find fairways, he won’t be as hampered this week compared to many modern PGA Tour tracks. 15th for the season for SG Approach, 9th for SG Tee to Green and 6th for SG Around the Green tells us where his game excels right now, and 1st for Proximity for 2025 is perfect for this in my view.

✅ Bet £10 get £30 in free bets for new customers
✅ Bonus code SPORT30 can be used, but does not change the offer amount in any way
✅ For further details read our bet365 new customer offer page
✅ Early odds available each week on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour
✅ ‘Each Way Extra’ promotion where you can choose between 3, 8, 10 or 12 places each way

bet365 New Customer Offer: Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration required. The bonus code SPORT30 can be used during registration, but does not change the offer amount in any way. #Ad

CLAIM T&Cs

Odds and bookmaker offers correct at 11:25BST 14.7.25 but are naturally subject to fluctuation.